Predictions

Homepage » 2011 Predictions

To view this week's predictions, log in or click here to purchase one of our packages.

SUPER BOWL XLVI (Sunday - 2/05/12 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

NEW YORK GIANTS (Getting points); 3 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

OVER the total points in the NEW YORK GIANTS / NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS game; 53.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.

The MJM Sportsline Top and Preferred plays represent our most confident picks for a particular week. MJM typically submits both the top and preferred picks to an independent monitoring service (The Sports Monitor of Oklahoma) for documentation and validation purposes. However, ONLY the top rated plays are utilized to calculate MJM Sportsline’s overall ranking versus other sports prognosticating services (unless otherwise noted and typically in the post season playoffs).

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: None for the week.

MJM’s “Free Pick” of the week: This pick is typically reserved for those individuals who are somewhat new to the MJM Sportsline website and seek to obtain a complimentary selection. This week’s “Free Pick” is:

Not available for the Playoffs.

MJM strives to be “The professional’s professional” and looks to offer both quality picks that may be obtained as part of a package and complimentary “Free Picks” to assist those individuals who are striving to be associated with an overall winning and professional NFL football prediction service.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays and Preferred Plays combined):

NEW YORK GIANTS and Over the Over / Under total points.

Noteworthy trend(s): Since 2006, the New York Giants are a PERFECT 7-0, vs. the spread, as playoff UNDERDOGS. The Giants are 6-1, straight up, in these same seven playoff games. The N. Y. Giants are 6-0, straight up, the last six playoff games played as an underdog, including their UPSET of the undefeated (18-0) New England Patriots in Super Bowl 42 (2007 NFL season). The Giants are listed as 3 point UNDERDOGS in Super Bowl 46.
Noteworthy trend(s): The New York Giants are 7-2, straight up, and 8-1, against the spread (ATS), the last 9 playoff games that the Giants have been involved in. (This statistic dates to the 2006 playoff game vs. Philadelphia and through the 2011 NFC Championship game vs. the San Francisco 49ers).
Noteworthy trend(s): Playoff games involving the New York Giants have gone UNDER the total Over / Under points scored in 8 out of the last 10 games. The two games that went OVER the total O/U points were both against the Green Bay Packers (2007 NFC Championship game and 2011 Divisional game). The New York Giants / New England Patriots Super Bowl (2007 season) game had an Over / Under total of 55 points. Obviously, with a 17-14 final score, the game went well UNDER an anticipated high scoring contest. Will we see more of the same type of low scoring game in Super Bowl 46?
Noteworthy trend(s): The New York Giants recorded an impressive and dominant, 37-20, divisional playoff game victory against the Green Bay Packers (the Over and Under line was 54 points for this game). However, 9 out of the last 10 playoff games, involving the New York Giants, have gone UNDER 44 combined total points scored. (The Over and Under line, for Super Bowl 46, is 53.5 total points).
Noteworthy trend(s): The average total points scored (ATP), in the last 10 N. Y. Giants playoff games, was 37 points per contest. The Giants are 3-0, straight up and against the spread, in their three Super Bowl appearances. Additionally, the (ATP) scored in the three Giants Super Bowl victories was 43 points (the ATP decreases to 35 points if only considering the last two Giants Super Bowl wins).
Noteworthy trend(s): See MJM SPORTSLINE'S - AFC Championship and Divisional games related trends analysis for additional information on the New England Patriots.
Intangible factor(s):

PREDICTION: NEW YORK GIANTS 34 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 23

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall solid 3-1-0 record versus the spread for the NFL Championship games weekend. To summarize, MJM Sportsline’s AFC and NFC Championship games predictions were as follows:

Top Plays were 2-1-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 1-0-0 vs. the spread (This play was included for TSM ranking purposes).
“Free Pick” was 0-0-0 outright and vs. the spread (Not available during the playoffs).

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's AFC and NFC Championship games analysis provided to our clients and include:

AFC and NFC Championship Games (Sunday - 1/22/12 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

BALTIMORE RAVENS (Getting points); 7 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
NEW YORK GIANTS (Getting points); 2 points at time of publication.
OVER the total points in the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS / BALTIMORE RAVENS game; 49 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

UNDER the total points in the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS / NEW YORK GIANTS game; 42 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: None for the week.

Not available for the Playoffs.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays and Preferred Plays combined):

BALTIMORE RAVENS and Over the Over / Under total points.

Noteworthy trend(s): Games involving the New England Patriots went OVER the total Over and Under points in 24 out of 32 regular season games when comparing the past two (2010 and 2011) seasons. (One out of the eight UNDER plays happened to be against Baltimore in the 2010 game). Additionally, both New England HOME playoff games went OVER in the same period (straight up and against the spread loss to the N. Y. Jets in 2010 and a SU and ATS win versus Denver in the 2011 divisional playoff round). Including playoff games, 26 out of 34 total games went OVER the total Over / Under points, involving New England and their opponents, over the two year comparison.
Noteworthy trend(s): Games involving New England, at HOME, have gone OVER the total Over / Under points 15 out of the past 19 games. This statistic dates back to the Baltimore 2009 playoff game that went OVER the total Over / Under points. Incidentally, the last three HOME playoff games went OVER (including the game against Denver).
Noteworthy trend(s): New England is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in the last four regular season games played vs. Baltimore (since the 2004 season). However, New England is 0-1, both straight up and against the spread, in their only playoff game played against Baltimore (33-14 loss in the 2009 season playoffs).
Noteworthy trend(s): New England's Average Margin of Victory (AMV), against Baltimore, is only 4 points when comparing the last three New England wins versus the Ravens. The margins of victory are as follows: 3, 6 and 3 points.
Noteworthy trend(s): New England is 1-6, against the spread, the last seven playoff games they have played in and dating back to their 2006 AFC Championship game loss to the Indianapolis Colts. The Patriots are 3-4, straight up, in the above comparison with the lone against the spread victory coming in the 2011 Divisional playoff round against the Denver Broncos.
Noteworthy trend(s): Since the 2001 season, New England is an impressive 15-5, straight up, in their post season playoff games. This statistic includes New England's 2011 Divisional game victory against Denver. However, it should be noted that the New England Patriots won 10 consecutive playoff games between 2001 and 2005 and at the start of the above mentioned trend analysis period. The Patriots are only 5-5, straight up, in their last 10 playoff games (3-7 versus the spread in these same 10 games). Overall, New England is 9-10-1 vs. the spread in all 20 of their playoff games from the 2001 season through the 2011 Divisional playoff game against Denver.
Noteworthy trend(s): Playoff games involving New England went UNDER the total Over / Under points scored 12 out of 20 times. The last three playoff games, all HOME games for New England, have gone OVER the Over and Under total points.
Noteworthy trend(s): Baltimore is 10-6, straight up, in the 16 playoff games they have played in since the 2000 season when they won the Super Bowl (this statistic includes the 2011 Divisional victory over the Houston Texans). In addition, Baltimore had covered every game that they won outright (all nine playoff wins) prior their 20-13 victory over the Texans. Baltimore was a (7.5 point) favorite against the Houston Texans. Baltimore is 9-7, vs. the spread, in their 16 playoff games.
Noteworthy trend(s); Baltimore is 0-6, both straight up and against the spread, in ALL six of their playoff losses. Two losses have been to the Indianapolis Colts (2006 and 2009) and three losses have been to the Pittsburgh Steelers (2001, 2008 and 2010). Ironically, the Colts and Steelers went to 5 AFC Championship games and 4 Super Bowls after beating Baltimore. In other words, the Ravens generally play extremely well in their playoff games and have ended up typically losing to the eventual AFC representative in the Super Bowl.
Noteworthy trend(s): 13 out of the 16 playoff games, that Baltimore has played in, have gone UNDER 38 total points scored. Only 9 of the 16 games, however, have gone UNDER 37 total points scored in the above mentioned playoff contests. Additionally, ONLY ONE playoff game, involving the Baltimore Ravens and their opponents, has gone OVER the current Over / Under total (49 points) in the Patriots game (AFC Championship). The single game that went OVER the 49 point total, referenced above, was Baltimore's 31-24 2010 playoff loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Noteworthy trend(s): Baltimore playoff games have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points in 10 of 16 contests. However, three of the six games, that went OVER, were against Pittsburgh. Another OVER total was Baltimore's 2009 Wildcard victory (33-14) against New England.
Intangible factor(s): Baltimore typically plays better in AWAY playoff games. The Ravens are 8-4, in AWAY playoff games, against the spread (three SU and ATS losses were road games against Pittsburgh). Baltimore dominated play against other 2011 playoff teams, this season, and went a perfect 6-0, straight up, and 5-0-1, vs. the spread. (Additional supporting documentation is located in the Baltimore Ravens / Houston Texans Divisional game analysis). New England was 1-2, both straight up and vs. the spread, against other 2011 playoff teams. The Pittsburgh Steelers were a common opponent for both Baltimore and New England this season. Baltimore won both games played against Pittsburgh, outright and against the spread, while New England lost their regular season game against Pittsburgh. There are several statistical trends, as discussed and reflected in the above analysis, that offer supporting and contradictory points regarding the proper team and Over / Under play in the AFC Championship game. MJM is going AGAINST two playoff game trends that would support an UNDER play in this contest. Both teams can put up plenty of points in various ways. New England has "Terrific Tom" Brady pitching the ball to Wes Welker and his two dangerous TE's. Baltimore has a strong running game (mainly All Pro running back Ray Rice), a tenacious and fierce defense and Joe Flacco's ability to burn a weak New England secondary with the long pass. MJM is taking Baltimore and the points (7 point underdog) in an anticipated close game that should be settled in the fourth quarter. MJM is going with the Baltimore Ravens in an outright (UPSET) win over the New England Patriots! At worst, Baltimore should cover the line, getting a touchdown as a road underdog, against New England.

PREDICTION: BALTIMORE 28 NEW ENGLAND 24

2. NEW YORK GIANTS and Under the Over / Under total points.

Noteworthy trend(s): The New York Giants went 5-0, against the spread (ATS), vs. San Francisco the last 5 games played between the two clubs (prior to the 2011 regular season game won by San Francisco, SU and ATS, by the score of 27-20).
Noteworthy trend(s): Playoff games involving the New York Giants have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points scored 7 out of the last 9 games. The two games that went OVER the total O/U points were both against the Green Bay Packers (2007 NFC Championship game and 2011 Divisional game).
Noteworthy trend(s): San Francisco is a PERFECT 9-0, against the spread, at HOME this season. San Francisco is 8-1, straight up, at HOME (including the divisional playoff victory over the New Orleans Saints).
Noteworthy trend(s): San Francisco went 5-1, both straight up and against the spread, vs. the other 2011 playoff teams. This statistic includes a 27-20 regular season victory over the NEW YORK GIANTS and last week's divisional playoff game win against New Orleans.
Noteworthy trend(s): See MJM'S - Divisional game and related trend analysis (Saturday - 1/14/12) for additional information on the 49ers.
Intangible factor(s): It's very simple. Both teams have played well, even great at times during the season, and deserve to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. San Francisco has been on an incredible roll this season and has done absolutely no wrong at home. The New York Giants are finally healthy,...finally healthy and playing like a champion. The Giants may be in store for a letdown after the big win against the Green Bay Packers in their divisional match up. However, this NFC Championship game should be a great contest featuring two outstanding defenses and very good, but different style, offenses. The main factor that might have the most impact on the game could be the weather. The game day forecast calls for rain. Poor weather actually would favor the New York Giants as their offense could utilize the run or passing game. San Francisco is a run based offense and has squandered many viable touchdown scoring opportunities, in the redzone, this season. Look for a relatively low scoring game and good defensive battle. MJM is taking the New York Giants (+2) to UPSET the San Francisco 49ers!

PREDICTION: NEW YORK GIANTS 24 SAN FRANCISCO 16

3. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

UNDER (42 total points) in the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS / NEW YORK GIANTS game

SEE ABOVE ANALYSIS under Top and Preferred Play(s) Section.
Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

2. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

3. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall spectacular 7-1-0 record versus the spread for the Divisional games weekend NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s Divisional games weekend predictions:

Top Plays were 6-0-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 1-1-0 vs. the spread (These plays were included for TSM ranking purposes).
“Free Pick” was 0-0-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Divisional games weekend analysis provided to our clients and include:

Divisional Games Weekend (Sunday - 1/15/12 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

HOUSTON TEXANS (Getting points); 7.5 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
NEW YORK GIANTS (Getting points); 7.5 points at time of publication.
OVER the total points in the GREEN BAY PACKERS / NEW YORK GIANTS game; 54 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

OVER the total points in the BALTIMORE RAVENS / HOUSTON TEXANS game; 37 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: None for the week.

Not available for the Playoffs.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays and Preferred Plays combined):

HOUSTON TEXANS and OVER the Over / Under total points.

Houston scored approximately 24 points per game, on average, in 2011 regular season games while Baltimore was not far behind with a 23.5 point scoring average. Both teams played great defense this season (second nature for Baltimore) and yielded approximately 17 points per contest. Baltimore's scoring average, at HOME, was nearly four points better (slightly more than 27 points per game) than their season average while their scoring defense/ points allowed was below 15 points per home game. Houston, in AWAY games, scored better than when playing at home. The Texans averaged 25.5 points scored per road games played in 2011. Also, the Texans yielded nearly 19 points a game on the road.
Overall, the Ravens and Texans are teams who typically play in games (2011) with total points scored in the range of 40 total points. Both the Ravens and Texans had a total of 11 out of 16 games, each, go OVER the current Over and Under total points scored line of 37 points as posted for their divisional matchup.
Noteworthy trend(s): 10 out of the 16 regular season games, involving the Houston Texans and their 2011 opponents, went UNDER the total Over and Under points scored. Additionally, 5 out of the 6 games that went OVER the total Over and Under points went OVER by a combined 13 points. NOTE: None of the 5 games, mentioned above and in regard to the Over and Under statistic, went OVER by more than 5 points in any one of these games (for those individuals that enjoy TEASER plays).
Noteworthy trend(s): Baltimore went 6-0, straight up, and 5-0-1, against the spread, versus other 2011 playoff teams (including a win against Houston, during the regular season, by the score of 29-14). Baltimore won the game, against the spread, with it going UNDER.
Noteworthy trend(s): Baltimore Ravens games, involving other 2011 playoff teams, resulted in total points scored of at least 40 points in 5 of the 6 contests that apply. The only game that totaled less than 40 overall points was Baltimore's 16-6 win vs. San Francisco.
Noteworthy trend(s): 2011 regular season games, involving the Baltimore Ravens, went OVER the total Over / Under points 9 out of 16 times. The Ravens went 4-4, at home, regarding the OVER plays. Additionally, Baltimore games went OVER the total Over and Under points, 4 out of 6 times, in games played versus other 2011 playoff teams.
Intangible factor(s): Houston is playing in their first playoff game in team history. Houston is also starting a rookie third string quarterback against the fierce Baltimore defense. How can the Houston Texans even compete in this contest? Easy! The Texans will play solid, old school football against the Ravens. Houston will lean heavily on their strong running game to help out the rookie QB (T.J. Yates) and probably play some fierce defense in their own right. MJM is going with Houston and the points in this contest (+7.5) as a great play. Don't be surprised if the Houston Texans pull off a straight up (UPSET) victory against a team who might be looking ahead to an expected AFC Championship game against the New England Patriots.

PREDICTION: HOUSTON 21 BALTIMORE 17

2. NEW YORK GIANTS and OVER the Over / Under total points.

Noteworthy trend(s): Games involving the New York Giants and their AWAY opponents went OVER the total Over and Under points scored in 5 of 8 2011 regular season games (including the Giants 38-35 loss to Green Bay in December).
Noteworthy trend(s): New York went 1-3, straight up, versus other 2011 playoff teams and 2-2, against the spread, regarding these same clubs (including an against the spread win their game with the Packers).
Noteworthy trend(s): Green Bay games went OVER the total Over and Under points scored in 11 out of the 16 2011 regular season games (Games involving the Packers, at HOME, went OVER the total points 7 out of 8 times at Lambeau Field). Additionally, the average total points (ATP) scored in games played, in Green Bay, was 61.5 points per contest.
Intangible factor(s): Both teams have demonstrated that they can put up points in a hurry as we witnessed in the regular season meeting that finished with a final score of Green Bay beating the N.Y. Giants 38-35. (See additional scoring statistics listed above). In addition, games involving the N. Y. Giants and other 2011 playoff teams went OVER the total Over and Under points scored 3 out of 4 times in the regular season. The Giants are a much improved and healthier team since the regular season meeting, last month, with the Packers. New York's pass rush should be able to disrupt the timing of Green Bay's precise passing game to a degree. Green Bay's offense can be slowed down and contained, as we witnessed in the Kansas City Chiefs upset victory against the Packers, but won't be shut down entirely in this game. The G-Men are more than a touchdown underdog in this contest and are definitely more than capable of keeping the game close. The Giants, getting the points (+7.5), is a great play! In fact, the Giants winning the game outright is a very realistic possibility just as was demonstrated in their 2008 NFC Championship upset victory over the Green Bay Packers. MJM is going with the Giants to win this game big!!

PREDICTION: NEW YORK GIANTS 34 GREEN BAY 24

3. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for the "Preferred Play(s)" for the Divisional Games Weekend of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks. However, MJM Sportsline has submitted the Preferred Play(s) to be included with the Top Plays, for ranking purposes, with the independent validation and verification services business (The Sports Monitor of Oklahoma).

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

OVER (37 total points) in the BALTIMORE RAVENS / HOUSTON TEXANS game.

SEE ABOVE ANALYSIS under Top and Preferred Play(s) Section.
Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

2. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor:

3. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Divisional Games Weekend (Saturday - 1/14/12 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Getting points); 4 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Giving the points); 13.5 points at time of publication.
OVER the total points in the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS / DENVER BRONCOS game; 50.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

OVER the total points in the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS / NEW ORLEANS SAINTS game; 46.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: None for the week.

Not Available for the Playoffs.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays and Preferred Plays combined):

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS and Over the Over / Under total points.

New Orleans had a 13 point positive margin / differential when comparing total points scored versus total points given up for the season. The Saints averaged over 34 points scored, per regular season game, while yielding 21 points a game in 2011. San Francisco had a good point margin differential for the 2011 regular season (approximately 10 points) as the 49ers averaged nearly 24 points scored per contest while giving up only 14 points per game. The 49ers defense was ranked second in the league for scoring defense (Pittsburgh was ranked number one) or total points given up. However, both clubs demonstrate a significant difference when comparing total points scored / given up when comparing Home / Away statistics. For instance, New Orleans scores less than 3 points more, on average per AWAY game, than the Saints yield on the road. San Francisco displays a marked improvement in points scored and given up, at HOME, when compared to season totals. The 49ers scored nearly 28 points per game, at Home, or nearly 4 points better than their season scoring average. The 49er defense, already known for it's toughness and being stingy in points given up and rushing yards, improved upon an impressive points yielded total. San Francisco gave up less than 11 points, on average per game, at Home this season.
Noteworthy trend(s): New Orleans went 13-3, straight up (SU), and 12-4, against the spread (ATS), in 2011 regular season games. The Saints only lost ONE game ATS in contests that New Orleans was favored and won straight up. New Orleans went 11-1 against the spread in the above mentioned game scenario (outright winner and favorite). In addition, 9 out of 16 games, involving the New Orleans Saints and their opponents, went OVER the total Over / Under points this season.
Noteworthy trend(s): New Orleans was 6-1 both straight up and against the spread versus other 2011 season playoff teams. The Saints only SU and ATS loss was at Green Bay on opening day. Two SU and ATS victories came against Detroit (one regular season game and last week's Wildcard game win in New Orleans).
Noteworthy trend(s): San Francisco went 13-3 both straight up and against the spread in the 2011 regular season. San Francisco was 7-1, straight up, and 8-0 vs. the spread in games played, at HOME, this season.
Noteworthy trend(s): San Francisco went 4-1, both straight up and against the spread, versus other 2011 season playoff teams.
Noteworthy trend(s): Games involving San Francisco went OVER the total Over / Under points scored only 6-9-1 times in the regular season. Additionally, 4 out of 5 games have gone UNDER the total Over / Under points scored, this season, in games involving the 49ers and other 2011 playoff teams. NOTE: MJM Sportsline is going AGAINST these two trends regarding the Over/Under play in the SF/NO game.
Intangible factor(s): San Francisco appears to be experiencing one of those magical turnaround type years where everything just seems to be going right for the team. New coach, better attitude, great defense and a winning philosophy is something evident for the 49ers this season. Momentum appears to be on the side of the San Francisco 49ers and MJM Sportsline is going with the 49ers in their matchup against New Orleans! Additionally, the Saints have lost some road games to inferior opponents in 2011. New Orleans lost to St. Louis and Tampa Bay in AWAY games this season. The Saints also seem to play poorly, or definitely less effectively, on grass as is evidenced by their opening day loss to Green Bay and the aforementioned loss to Tampa Bay. New Orleans also had narrow margin victories against lesser opponents such as the Carolina Panthers and Tennessee Titans. MJM is going with the San Francisco 49ers to UPSET the New Orleans Saints and taking the OVER play regarding the Over / Under total points scored!

PREDICTION: SAN FRANCISCO 28 NEW ORLEANS 21

2. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS and Over the Over / Under total points.

New England went 7-1, straight up (SU), and 4-4, against the spread (ATS), in 2011 regular season HOME games.
New England only played against three other playoff teams (Away at Pittsburgh and Denver and Home against the New York Giants) this season. The Patriots lost, both SU and ATS, to the Steelers and Giants with the two games going UNDER the total Over / Under points scored. The Patriots beat the Denver Broncos by the score of 41-23, in Denver, for the only New England SU and ATS win against other 2011 season playoff teams.
Noteworthy trend(s): Games involving the New England Patriots and their 2011 opponents went OVER the total Over / Under points scored in 11 out of 16 games this season (Including 7 out of the last 8 regular season games played). The Patriots/ Broncos regular season game went OVER the Over / Under total points (47.5) scored.
Noteworthy trend(s): Games involving New England and their 2011 opponents had Total Points scored of 50 or more in 12 out of 16regular season contests. However, 3 out of the 4 games with total points of less than 50 points scored came at the New England Patriots HOME field (Gillette Stadium). Additionally, New England scored at least 30 points in 5 out of 8 HOME games this season.
Noteworthy trend(s): Denver was 1-3, straight up, and 0-4, against the spread versus other 2011 playoff teams (prior to Denver's Wildcard game victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers). Denver's average margin of loss (AML) was over 26 points per loss. Also, the average total score (ATS) in the aforementioned five games, involving the Denver Broncos, was 57.8 points per game.
Intangible factor(s): It's very simple. New England has a future Hall of Fame quarterback "Tom Terrific" Brady who has 3 Super Bowl rings while the Denver Broncos have Tim Tebow leading their offense. Enough said? Tebow mania is the talk of the town and it seems as though many football fans can't get enough of "Tebow Time". This fad will fade fast. New England has a tendency to shred opponents when feeling slighted or overlooked (as in Brady's case for the Denver matchup) and ala the Jets game after the "Spygate" scandal and related debacle. This game isn't going to even be close! MJM is going with New England to have a easy game and a big win!

PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND 38 DENVER 17

3. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

OVER (46.5 total points) in the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS / NEW ORLEANS SAINTS game

SEE ABOVE ANALYSIS under Top and Preferred Play(s) Section.
Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

2. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

3. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 3-5-0 record versus the spread for Wildcard Weekend NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s Wildcard Weekend predictions:

Top Plays were 3-2-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 0-3-0 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 0-0-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Wildcard Weekend analysis provided to our clients and include:

Wildcard Weekend (Sunday - 1/8/12 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

ATLANTA FALCONS (Getting points); 3 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
OVER the total points in the DENVER BRONCOS / PITTSBURGH STEELERS game; 34 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

OVER the total points in the NEW YORK GIANTS / ATLANTA FALCONS game; 48 points at time of publication.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Giving the points); 9 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: None for the week.

None.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

ATLANTA FALCONS

.
Noteworthy trend(s):
Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

2. OVER 34 points in the DENVER BRONCOS / PITTSBURGH STEELERS game

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s): .

3. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for the "Preferred Plays" for Wildcard Weekend of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks. However, MJM Sportsline has submitted the Preferred Plays to be included with the Top Plays, for ranking purposes, with the independent validation and verification services business (The Sports Monitor of Oklahoma).

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

OVER 48 points in the NEW YORK GIANTS / ATLANTA FALCONS game

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

2. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor:

3. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Wildcard Weekend (Saturday - 1/7/12 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

HOUSTON TEXANS (Giving the points); 4 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (Giving the points); 10.5 points at time of publication.
UNDER the total points in the HOUSTON TEXANS / CINCINNATI BENGALS game; 38 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

UNDER the total points in the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS / DETROIT LIONS game; 60 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: None for the week.

None.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

HOUSTON TEXANS

.
Noteworthy trend(s):
Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

2. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s): .

3. UNDER 38 points in the HOUSTON TEXANS / CINCINNATI BENGALS game

Noteworthy trend(s):
Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

UNDER 60 points in the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS / DETROIT LIONS game

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

2. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor:

3. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Noteworthy trend(s):

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 2-2-0 winning record versus the spread for week 17 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 17 predictions:

Top Plays were 0-0-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 2-2-0 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 0-0-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 17 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 17 ( 1/1/12 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

No Top Play as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (Giving the points); 3 points at time of publication.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Giving the points); 12.5 points at time of publication.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (Getting points); 2.5 points at time of publication.
NEW YORK GIANTS (Giving the points); 3 points at time of publication.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: None for the week.

None for the week.

MJM Sportsline has opted not to release "Top Plays" for Week 17 of the 2011 NFL season. Typically, there are many current factors (i.e. will a top ranked team sit players or play them for a limited amount of time) that are considered significant and could potentially outweigh related statistical trends. The applicable factors are not limited to only the best teams either. Weather, injuries and / or other related issues will be reviewed for most games to determine if there is a recommended solid play despite lack of statistical or supporting data. Therefore, there will not be any "Top Plays" submitted for monitoring purposes during the final week of the 2011 regular NFL season.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

NO TOP PLAY (SUBMITTED FOR MONITORING PURPOSE)

2. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY (SUBMITTED FOR MONITORING PURPOSE)

3. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY (SUBMITTED FOR MONITORING PURPOSE)

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY (SUBMITTED FOR MONITORING PURPOSE)

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY (SUBMITTED FOR MONITORING PURPOSE)

MJM Sportsline write ups or related analysis will not be presented for the "Top Plays ", as previosuly stated, or the "Preferred Plays" for Week 17 of the 2011 NFL regular season. The preferred plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks. However, MJM Sportsline has conducted a typical thorough review and analysis regarding any related or pertinent information needed to provide recommended plays.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

2. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

3. CINCINNATI BENGALS

4. NEW YORK GIANTS

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 5-1-0 winning record versus the spread for week 16 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 16 predictions:

Top Plays were 3-0-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 1-1-0 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 1-0-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 16 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 16 ( 12/25/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

UNDER the total points in the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS / OAKLAND RAIDERS game; 42 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (Giving the points); 4.5 points at time of publication.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Getting points); 6.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Pick 'em game); Pick at time of publication.
ATLANTA FALCONS (Getting points); 7 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: None for the week.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-10.5) over the St. Louis Rams. Why is Pittsburgh not favored by a larger point total? Answer: Big Ben's health status! It appears that Big Ben will be active for the game against St. Louis. How much, if at all, he plays is the "Big" question. Look for Pittsburgh and their nasty defense to make amends for the embarrassing (20-3) loss last Monday night to San Francisco. Pittsburgh at home, playing against a dome team in December, coming off of a lopsided nationally televised loss on Monday night and needing a victory to possibly obtain a bye week in the upcoming playoffs spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for S-T. L-O-U-I-S. Look for Pittsburgh to dominate this game as the Rams will be limited to being a one dimensional attack (Steven Jackson), on offense, since quarterback Sam Bradford is injured. MJM is taking the Steelers to win this game by two or more touchdowns and cover the line against the Rams.

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for some of the MJM "Top Plays" for Week 16 of the 2011 NFL season. Typically, there are many current factors (i.e. will a top ranked team sit players or play them for a limited amount of time) that are considered significant and could potentially outweigh related statistical trends. The applicable factors are not limited to only the best teams either. Weather, injuries and / or other related issues will be reviewed for most games to determine if there is a recommended solid play despite lack of statistical or supporting data.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

UNDER 42 points in the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS / OAKLAND RAIDERS game

Noteworthy trend(s): Since the 2005 season, games played between the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points 11 out of the last 13 games (additionally, the total points scored in the above mentioned contests exceeded the current Over and Under total of 42 points only twice in games utilized for statistical analysis). The above statistic includes the first game played earlier (week 7 - 10/23/11) this season between Oakland and Kansas City. The Chiefs won that contest 28-0 with the game / score going under the total Over and Under points.
Intangible factor(s): The match up between Oakland and Kansas City has typically resulted in tough, grind 'em out, low scoring games played in recent years. Both teams have had to deal with significant season ending injuries to several star players (i.e. KC's Jamaal Charles, Matt Cassel and Oakland's Jason Campbell, etc.). In addition, Oakland has been without star running back (Darren McFadden) for nearly two months due to his foot injury. The Raiders also have dealt with many recent injuries to key members of their receiving corps. Another factor to mention is the hangover effect that Kansas City will most likely experience as a result of their major upset victory, over the Green Bay Packers, last week in Arrowhead Stadium. Couple all of these factors together, along with recent above average defensive play by Kansas City's defense, and the result should be a relatively low scoring game. MJM is staying with the strong statistical trend in this series associated with the Over and Under play. MJM is going with the UNDER play (Under 42 total points) in the Raiders / Chiefs game.

2. CINCINNATI BENGALS

Noteworthy trend(s): Since the 2010 season, Arizona is 2-11 (straight up) and 5-8 (against the spread) in the last 13 games played in the role of an AWAY UNDERDOG. Both straight up wins came in the 2011 season against Philadelphia and St. Louis. In addition, the Cardinals are 4-2, vs. the spread, in 2011 games played as an away underdog.
Noteworthy trend(s): The Arizona Cardinals are a poor road team regarding both straight up and against the spread comparisons. Arizona is 4-15 straight up over the last 19 away games played. Outside of the major upset against Philadelphia (Arizona was a 13 point underdog) earlier this season, the three other straight up victories came against overall inferior teams. Arizona beat Detroit (2009) and St. Louis twice (2010 and 2011) on the road. The collective season records for both Detroit and St. Louis amounted to winning percentages of .125 for both teams during the comparative analysis period. Detroit was 2-14 in 2009. St. Louis was 6-42 prior to the 2010 season opener against Arizona which covered seasons 2007 through 2009 for comparison purposes. In other words, Arizona's recent road victories have basically come against two teams much worse than themselves. The Cardinals have a slightly better against the spread record, 6-12-1, when compared to the last 19 games played as as a road underdog.
Noteworthy trend(s): Arizona's average margin of loss (AML), which covers their last 11 road losses, is approximately 16 points per game. The Cardinals have lost six games, as described in the above mentioned 11 road losses, by margins of 34, 31, 18, 31, 24 and 16 points (or just under 26 points per game). Typically, when Arizona loses on the road...they lose big!
Intangible factor(s): The Cincinnati Bengals are still in the playoff hunt but need help from other teams. First, Cincinnati needs to beat the Arizona Cardinals. The Bengals have been playing well and are benefitting from solid play of two rookie offensive players (quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver A.J. Green) and a seasoned veteran running back (Cedric Benson). The Bengals defense is also above average and should be able to contain the Cardinals offense which will be hampered by injuries to Kevin Kolb (starting QB) and Beanie Wells (running back). Look for Cincinnati to play well at home in a critical game. Arizona will, most likely, continue it's terrible woes on the road and lose to the Bengals. MJM is going with Cincinnati to win by at least two scores.

3. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Minnesota Vikings are 2-1, both straight up and vs. the spread, the last three games played against Washington at FedEx Field. These three games have been settled by margins of 3, 3 and 4 points.
Intangible factor(s): The biggest difference in what appears to be a "nobody cares about the outcome of this game with the exception of a few dedicated fans" is the health of the teams running backs. Washington will be playing without their top running backs being available. The Vikings will look forward to giving a healthy Adrian Peterson the bulk of the work to try and provide Christian Ponder (rookie quarterback) with less pressure and more ability to continue proper development at the vital position. Look for this game to be close. MJM is going with the Vikings to play effectively on both sides of the ball and to possibly post a rare upset road victory. Take Minnesota and the points (+6.5) in this contest.

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for some of the "Top Plays " and "Preferred Plays" for Week 16 of the 2011 NFL season. The preferred plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Since 2006, Dallas is 5-7 vs. the spread against Philadelphia (6-6 straight up). This statistic includes the 2009 season playoff game and the 2011 season (week 8) match up. Dallas is only 4-6, straight up, the last 10 regular season HOME games played against Philadelphia. Dallas is not a good home favorite as of late and will probably be a pick or slight favorite (1 to 3 points) against Philadelphia. In fact, Dallas is only 3-10 as a Home favorite, the last 13 games played in this role. Dallas was 1-5, vs. the spread, as a home favorite in 2010. Dallas is 2-5, vs. the spread as a home favorite, the current 2011 season and heading into the season home finale against Philadelphia.
Intangible factor(s): The Eagles and Cowboys are teams that have been dealing with health issues recently. In fact, Dallas will be without their top running backs (Felix Jones is questionable with hamstring problems) while the Eagles will be featuring LeSean McCoy as the primary offensive weapon on a talented offensive unit (i.e. Mike Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek, etc). Philadelphia shocked the Cowboys in a stunning and overwhelming 34-7 win in week 8. Mike Vick's bruised ribs appeared to be fully healed and he should be a major factor in this contest. MJM is going against the majority in this game and taking the Eagles to put a damper on the Cowboys playoff hopes by sweeping the season's series for the first time since 2006. Take the Philadelphia Eagles to beat Dallas in this contest!

2. ATLANTA FALCONS

Noteworthy trend(s): 5 out of the last 6 games played between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints have been settled by 4 or less points. In fact, the last four games played between these two clubs have been settled by a field goal (including the 2011 season 26-23 OT win, in week 10, by the Saints).
Intangible factor(s): This game is important for both teams. Atlanta, with an upset win, can make a statement that they can compete with New Orleans. Also, the Saints are still in the the hunt for a first round playoff bye. MJM is taking the Falcons and the points (+7) to keep this game close and possibly win outright. Look for the Atlanta Falcons to give New Orleans a good battle in what appears to be a a great Monday Night Football match up!

3. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 6-0-0 winning record versus the spread for week 15 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 15 predictions:

Top Plays were 3-0-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 2-0-0 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 1-0-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 15 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 15 ( 12/18/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

ATLANTA FALCONS (Giving the points); 12 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
UNDER the total points in the NEW YORK GIANTS / WASHINGTON REDSKINS game; 46.5 points at time of publication.
OVER the total points in the MINNESOTA VIKINGS / NEW ORLEANS SAINTS game; 53.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

DALLAS COWBOYS (Giving the points); 7 points at time of publication.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Giving the points); 8 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: MJM is going with the "Free Pick" selection as the "Trend Buster" play of the week. Take the San Diego Chargers as the "Trend Buster" play of the week although New England qualifies as a solid play. San Diego is 1-4 vs. the spread the last 5 games played against Baltimore (since the 2000 season). Look for the Chargers to upset the Ravens and keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+2.5) over the Baltimore Ravens.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

ATLANTA FALCONS

Noteworthy trend(s): Atlanta is 3-1 vs. the spread, all time, against Jacksonville. The two teams have played a regular rotational basis (every four years) since the Jaguars joined the NFL in 1996.
Intangible factor(s): Both clubs are heading in opposite directions this season. Jacksonville has recognized that being in a rebuilding mode is a necessary process and may take some time to work through. After all, the Jaguars are starting a rookie quarterback and have one main offensive threat, running back - Maurice Jones-Drew (MJD), that they can depend upon on a regular basis. However, this one dimensional approach actually plays into the hands of the Atlanta defense as they are a top ranked unit against the run this season. Atlanta, on the other hand, is demonstrating that they are a potential playoff contender. Matt "Matty Ice" Ryan has been on "fire" as of late. Ryan's quarterback rating has been phenomenal in recent weeks and he is finally playing up to the status of a top level QB. Additionally, Matt Ryan simply wins, at home, and wins many, many games with ease. MJM is taking the Falcons to win by at least a couple of scores and cover the spread since it appears that Jacksonville has little incentive to even show up the rest of the season. In addition, Jacksonville has been a poor road team in recent history (please reference previous statistical analysis as addressed in the 2010 season - week 13 writeup section). MJM is going with the Atlanta Falcons to win this contest!

2. UNDER 46.5 points in the NEW YORK GIANTS / WASHINGTON REDSKINS game

Noteworthy trend(s): Since the 2000 season, games played between the New York Giants and the Washington Redskins, at HOME in New York, have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points 9 out of 11 games played (1-9-1 for the UNDER play includes one tie and the only Over play coming in at a total of 40 points scored in the 2009 game).
Intangible factor(s): Washington games have gone OVER the total Over and Under points in each of the last 4 games played this season. Also, 3 out of the 4 games had total points of at least 51 scored in these contests. New York Giants games went OVER the total Over and Under points scored in 4 out of the last 5 games played. Total points scored in these four games were 47, 73, 73 and 71. The game between the New York Giants and Washington Redskins would suggest that the Over play is correct in this contest. Wrong assumption! The Giants will be trying to reestablish their dominant running game style by working in a healthy Ahmad Bradshaw and then spelling him with their bruising running back (Brandon Jacobs) who has been running well lately. This strategy will take time off of the play clock and lead to fewer offensive possessions for each team which would, in theory, lead to fewer scoring opportunities. Go with the strong statistical trend of the UNDER plays that have been the overwhelming correct play for the past decade (games regarding N. Y. Giants hosting the Washington Redskins). MJM is taking the UNDER in this contest.

3. OVER 53.5 points in the MINNESOTA VIKINGS / NEW ORLEANS SAINTS game

Noteworthy trend(s): Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints games have gone OVER the total Over and Under points in 5 of the past 6 games played between the two clubs. This statistic includes four regular season meetings and the 2009 NFC Championship game that had gone Over the total points. The only game, part of the statistic referenced above, that went Under the total points was the NFL season opener in 2010. The average total points scored, in the five games that went over and previously referenced, was slightly more than 59. (The current Over and Under total points line is 53.5 points in the contest between the Vikings and Saints).
Intangible factor(s): New Orleans Saints games have gone Under the total Over and Under line in four of the past five 2011 regular season games. Games involving the Minnesota Vikings have gone Over the total Over and Under line in four of the past five contests. In addition, Minnesota has allowed an average of 33 points scored by their last five opponents. The Minnesota Vikings have lost five straight games since their week nine bye. There is no dilemma regarding what the correct play is regarding the Over and Under in this contest. MJM is going with the OVER in this contest. The Saints should be able to break out of their mini slump regarding Over and Under plays with the assistance of a weak and depleted Vikings secondary. The Saints should be able to light up the scoreboard as Drew Brees is heading toward a new NFL total passing yards record. Minnesota's offense, with the return of a healthy Adrian Peterson, should be able to score on New Orleans defense in either regular game opportunities and / or garbage time (if the game turns into a blowout). MJM is going with the historical, strong supporting statistical trend that suggests the OVER play is warranted. Take OVER 53.5 points in the game between the Vikings and Saints.

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for some of the "Top Plays " and "Preferred Plays" for Week 15 of the 2011 NFL season. The preferred plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

DALLAS COWBOYS

Noteworthy trend(s): Since 2001, Dallas is 4-1, vs. the spread, against Tampa Bay. Dallas has won the last three meetings outright and against the spread. The Cowboys have won two of the last three games, played against Tampa Bay, by margins of 28 and 13 points.
Intangible factor(s): The Buccaneers are falling off the NFL map and "sinking" quickly. Tampa Bay is mired in a seven game consecutive losing streak (1-6 vs. the spread in these seven games) and can't seem to "right the ship". The Buccaneers defense, once legendary in the NFL for it's toughness and star players, is simply terrible and pathetic against the run, against the pass and every other facet of the game. Tampa's head coach (Raheem Morris) appears to be heading for the unemployment line (rightfully so) as his buddy, buddy antics are failing fast and often this season. His fast talking sales pitch just isn't cutting it anymore. Does the analysis seem repetitive for this game involving the Buccaneers? Answer: YES! However, MJM sees fit to revisit last week's analysis of the Tampa Bay / Jacksonville game and reemphasize how poorly since the Bucs are playing. Go against Tampa Bay in this game (and probably the rest of the 2011 season) as Tampa Bay loses straight up and, more importantly, against the spread. MJM has identified this game as one in which the line appears to be significantly off basis. The Cowboys should have no problem in winning this game by a couple of scores. MJM is taking Dallas to cover the line (7 points) and win big against a team lacking in discipline, desire and ability to compete.

2. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Noteworthy trend(s): Denver is 6-2 both straight up and vs. the spread the last 8 games the Broncos have played against New England. In fact, since the 2001 season, the outright winner of the contest between Denver and New England has also covered the spread.
Noteworthy trend(s): New England has been a good AWAY FAVORITE in recent years. Since the 2007 season, New England is 15-10 against the spread as an away favorite through and including the 2010 season. The Patriots are 3-3 vs. the spread this season as an away favorite.
Intangible factor(s): The Denver Broncos have "Tebow Time" and have been on a decent consecutive games won streak. New England has Tom Brady who has some sort of decent consecutive games won streak as well. Tim Tebow's listed as a quarterback but is actually a running back in disguise for the Broncos. Tom Brady is listed as the New England Patriots quarterback but is actually the New England franchise. Tim Tebow has won a collegiate national championship. Tom Brady has won three NFL Super Bowls. Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are an experienced team who are is accustomed to winning big games on big stages. Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos hope not to lose this game against New England. MJM is taking the Patriots, as a 8 point favorite, to dominate in this contest and put an end to all of the "Tebow Time" hype.

3. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 5-1-0 winning record versus the spread for week 14 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 14 predictions:

Top Plays were 2-1-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 2-0-0 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 1-0-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 14 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 14 ( 12/11/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Getting points); 3 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
DETROIT LIONS (Giving the points); 10 points at time of publication.
OVER the total points in the DALLAS COWBOYS / NEW YORK GIANTS game; 50.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (Getting points); 3 points at time of publication.
CHICAGO BEARS (Getting points); 3.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: None for the week.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-9.5) over the St. Louis Rams. Seattle is 12-1, straight up, against St. Louis since 2005 (including Seattle's 24-7 victory in week 11 of the 2011 season). Seattle is also 10-3 vs. the spread for these same 13 games that are included in the statistical analysis. Seattle typically dominates in their wins against St. Louis. Seattle's average margin of victory (AMV), in the 12 wins against the Rams, is almost 13 points. Seattle has beaten St. Louis, by at least 10 points, in 7 of the 12 victories against the Rams. St. Louis is playing with a banged up, patch work offensive line, an injured quarterback (the Rams franchise - Sam Bradford) and does not have the talent to compete with Seattle at this point in the season. Seattle will win this game. Take the Seahawks to cover the near 10 point spread against the hapless St. Louis Rams.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Noteworthy trend(s): Philadelphia and Miami have played against each other only four times since 1996 (the 2011 game will make it five times). Philadelphia is 3-1, straight up, and 4-0, vs. the spread, in these four games against Miami.
Intangible factor(s): Miami has turned around their season, as of late, and has been playing some competitive football against potential 2011 playoff participants as evidenced by straight up and / or against the spread wins versus Oakland (SU & ATS), Dallas (ATS), New York Giants (ATS) recently. Miami has also blown out inferior competition (i.e. Kansas City and Buffalo) by 28 and 27 points, respectively, during this recent resurgence. Philadelphia is an enigmatic team this season. Michael Vick is scheduled to return to action after being sidelined with broken ribs. The Eagles are a completely different team with Vick at QB. Look for the Eagles to come out on top in this game (much needed win) against the Dolphins. MJM is going with the trend that favors Philadelphia and with the team that has more talent at the skill positions (i.e. Vick, McCoy, Celek). Take the Philadelphia Eagles to cool off Miami and win outright!

2. DETROIT LIONS

Noteworthy trend(s): Since the 2001 season, the Minnesota Vikings have owned the Detroit Lions (at least in the category of straight up victories). Minnesota is an impressive 17-4, since 2001, straight up against Detroit. One blemish on this outstanding winning streak is that Minnesota has lost the last two consecutive games (2010 season ending game and the 2011 week three contest earlier this season) to Detroit. Additionally, both teams have played equally well against one another in consideration of winning against the line. Minnesota and Detroit are 9-9-3 vs. the spread regarding the above mentioned games included in the statistical analysis.
Intangible factor(s): Minnesota is playing some of the worst football in comparison to other years in their well respected history. Vikings fans would probably better understand that Minnesota is undergoing a rebuilding year (process?) if the Vikings did not have the second worst winning record in the NFL (only the winless Indianapolis Colts have a worse record). Detroit could be playoff bound this season. Minnesota will not have Adrian Peterson (stud running back and currently their franchise player) available in the game against Detroit due to his high ankle sprain injury. Also, Christian Ponder may have typical rookie quarterback troubles against the Detroit Lions defense. Overall, there are many more current intangible factors that indicate taking the Detroit Lions, to cover the 10 point line, as being the correct play. Minnesota definitely has an impressive record regarding wins against Detroit. However, MJM is going with the Lions in this game to win by at least a couple of touchdowns and possibly start their own streak (mini) against the Vikings. Take Detroit as a 10 point favorite to cover in this game.

3. OVER 50.5 points in the DALLAS COWBOYS / NEW YORK GIANTS game

Noteworthy trend(s): Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants games have gone OVER the total Over and Under points 8 out of the last 10 times the two teams have played against each other (since the 2006 season). In addition, at least 51 total points have been scored in 7 of these 10 games. (The current Over and Under total points line is 50.5 points).
Intangible factor(s): Both teams are getting healthier on the offensive side of the ball. The Giants are expecting the main cog who propels their successful running game (Ahmad Bradshaw) to return after a several game absence due to a foot injury. Ahmad Bradshaw should be rested and highly motivated to play well against a division rival. Wide receiver Miles Austin is set to return from his hamstring injury and serve as the main weapon for the Cowboys. Both Tony Romo and Eli Manning should be in store for field days. MJM is taking the OVER in this contest and going with the strong supporting statistical trend that suggests the OVER play is warranted. Take OVER 50.5 points in the game between the Cowboys and Giants in what should be quite an entertaining, exciting and high scoring contest!

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for some of the "Preferred Plays" for Week 14 of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Noteworthy trend(s): Jacksonville is 3-1 both straight up and vs. the spread against Tampa Bay. This statistic covers all four meetings played between the two teams and since Jacksonville came in to the league (NFL) in 1995.
Noteworthy trend(s): Jacksonville is 10-2, as a favorite or underdog of 3 or less points, versus an opponent coming off of back to back against the spread (ATS) losses. This statistic applies to Jacksonville games played in the month of December. Jacksonville is a three point underdog in the game against Tampa Bay. Ironically, the three previous ATS wins in this Tampa Bay series, have come when Jacksonville has been an underdog.
Noteworthy trend(s): Tampa Bay is 1-6 vs. opponents with a win percent of .333 or less. Jacksonville is 3-9 on the year (.250 win percent) and falls into this category. Another trend that goes against Tampa Bay is that the Buccaneers are only 1-6-1 as a non conference favorite of 3 or more points.
Intangible factor(s): The Buccaneers are falling off the NFL map and in nasty fashion. Tampa Bay is mired in a six game consecutive losing streak (1-5 vs. the spread in these six games) and can't seem to "right the ship". Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay's promising young quarterback, has been playing at less than 100% health for a significant time period this season. The Buccaneers defense, once legendary in the NFL for it's toughness and star players, is simply terrible and pathetic against the run. This fact bodes well for Jacksonville and their star NFL running back (a.k.a. fire hydrant and / or pocket Hercules) Maurice Jones Drew (MJD). MJD is among the NFL rushing leaders and should be able to carve up the Buccaneers in this contest. Take a chance on Jacksonville as a three (+3) point underdog. The Jaguars have several supporting statistical trends that favor them against the Buccaneers as discussed in the above game analysis. Jacksonville's defense has been playing better than most would think and have the ability to keep Tampa Bay's anemic offensive "attack" in check. MJM is going with Jacksonville in this game as Tampa Bay will struggle to break their current consecutive losing streak. MJM's taking the Jaguars to win outright!

2. CHICAGO BEARS

Since 1996, Chicago and Denver have only played three times. Chicago is 2-1 and 3-0, straight up and vs. the spread, respectively in the series with Denver.
Noteworthy trend(s): Denver has been a poor HOME FAVORITE in recent years. Since the 2007 season, Denver is 4-16-1 against the spread as a home favorite. This statistic includes the two home 2011 home games, weeks 1 and 2, when Denver went 1-1 straight up and 0-2 vs. the spread.
Intangible factor(s): The Chicago Bears will be playing without their starting quarterback (Jay Cutler). The Denver Broncos will be playing without a quarterback or at least one who could be considered a true starting NFL quarterback. Yes, the Denver Broncos will have Tim Tebow available to act as the player who takes the snap from the center. However, it seems as though Tebow is more suited to play running back, H back or even some type of modified tight end (i.e. Dallas Clark role) position. It's clear that Tebow has no touch on most of his passes and can only hope to bull rush the opposing defense for 4 or 5 yards at a crack. The Chicago Bears defense, as one would expect, is fairly adept at stopping the run. The Bears will be able to stack the line of scrimmage, in an effort to stop Tebow, since they do not have to fear Denver's one dimensional and 1930's era offensive game plan. MJM is taking the underdog Bears to win outright or at least cover the point spread.

3. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Don't forget to sign up for other free picks on our Home page or Contact Us page. Good luck to all of our clients and to those interested in using our service in the future.

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 4-2-0 winning record versus the spread for week 13 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 13 predictions:

Top Plays were 2-0-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 2-1-0 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 0-1-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 13 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 13 ( 12/04/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Giving the points); 6.5 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Giving the points); 13.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

UNDER the total points in the HOUSTON TEXANS / ATLANTA FALCONS game; 38 points at time of publication.
UNDER the total points in the NEW YORK GIANTS / GREEN BAY PACKERS game; 54 points at time of publication.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (Giving the points); 7 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: None for the week.

DALLAS COWBOYS (-4.5) points over the Arizona Cardinals. Dallas has a strong trend going against them in this game. Arizona is 4-1, straight up, and 3-2, vs. the spread, the last 5 times the two teams have played in Arizona. Dallas is on a mini win streak this season (won 4 consecutive) but they have only covered 1 out of the past 4 games in this streak. Look for the Dallas Cowboys to roll against the Arizona Cardinals and win by a couple of scores. MJM is taking the Cowboys to cover!

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Noteworthy trend(s): Since the 2000 season, Pittsburgh is 7-4 straight up and 6-5 vs. the spread in HOME games against Cincinnati. The Steelers have tended to dominate, the score, in the games won against Cincinnati and discussed in the above analysis. The margin of victory in each of the seven Pittsburgh wins has been as follows: 15, 9, 8, 11, 14, 17 and 16 points. The average margin of victory (AMV) is just slightly less than 13 points per contest. The next noteworthy trend is presented for comparison purposes and to reflect how Pittsburgh has basically dominated this intra division rivalry.
Noteworthy trend(s): Pittsburgh is 15-4, both straight up and against the spread, the last 19 AWAY games played, including the first 2011 contest on 11/13, against the Bengals. This statistic includes the 2005 season playoff game, won by Pittsburgh, played at Paul Brown Stadium (Cincinnati). The Steelers lost to the Bengals, straight up and against the spread, the following years (regarding the above analysis): 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2009. The overall comparison statistic includes games played (Pittsburgh at Cincinnati) dating back to and including the 1994 season.
Noteworthy trend(s): Overall, Pittsburgh has won 25 of the past 36 games played against Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has covered 23 of the 25 times they have won outright against the Bengals (1994-the first game of 2011 in week 10). The only two victories, in which Pittsburgh did not cover regarding this comparison, were in 1994 and 2002. Both games were played in Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh was a double digit (13.5 and 10.5) favorite.
Noteworthy trend(s): The outright winner, in this contest between AFC North division rivals, typically covers the spread. 34 out of the past 36, straight up winners in the Pittsburgh / Cincinnati series, have covered the line. Again, the only two times this strong trend did not come through were Pittsburgh victories in 1994 and 2002 (see above). This trend covers 1994-2010 regular season games and the 2005 season playoff game.
Intangible factor(s): Both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are in close pursuit of the AFC North division leader (Baltimore). However, both teams are currently battling for wild card berths at this point in the season. The Bengals are 6.5 point underdogs in this game being played at Heinz field. The Steelers should have no problem maintaining the strong winning trend that they possess over the Bengals (especially in front of an enthusiastic HOME crowd). Pittsburgh has won their last seven HOME games, played against Cincinnati, by AT LEAST 8 points (with 5 of the 7 victories being by a double digit margin). MJM is taking the Steelers to win this contest rather easily. Take Pittsburgh and give the 6.5 points!

2. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Noteworthy trend(s): The San Francisco 49ers are 9-2, straight up, and 10-1, VS. THE SPREAD, for the first 11 games of the 2011 NFL season. The 49ers have only lost to Dallas, at home, and Baltimore (last week on Thanksgiving). The loss to Dallas was only straight up and not against the spread.
Noteworthy trend(s): San Francisco is 7-3 both straight up and vs. the spread the last 10 HOME games played against the St. Louis Rams. San Francisco has won four of the seven games by margins of 24, 20, 19 and 35 points or an average margin of victory (AMV), in these four games, of 24.5 points per game. Overall, San Francisco's AMV for the above mentioned seven wins against the St. Louis Rams is approximately 16 points per contest.
Noteworthy trend(s): The St. Louis Rams are 1-11, straight up, and 4-8, vs. the spread, the last 12 times that they have been in the role of an underdog of 13.5 points or more. This statistic dates back to the 2005 season and includes the three games that have applied for the 2011 season (Green Bay, Dallas and New Orleans). The only straight up victory the Rams have had during this terrible streak was their upset of the New Orleans Saints earlier this season (Week 8) by the score of 31-21 at home. The average margin of loss (AML), in the 11 games mentioned in the above analysis, was 20.5 points per St. Louis loss. The Rams have played eight road games, in the above comparison, and are 0-8, straight up, and 1-7, vs. the spread, for these same games. The margins of loss, per game, were: 17, 28, 24, 4, 40, 21, 21 and 27 points or an AML of 22.75 points (for these eight St. Louis AWAY games analyzed).
Intangible factor(s): San Francisco will, in all likelihood, take out their frustrations on the hapless Rams. The 49ers will look to bounce back from their Thanksgiving loss (last week to Baltimore) by running all over the worst rushing defense in the NFL. Additionally, Sam Bradford (St. Louis Rams Quarterback) will be limited, in his effectiveness and playing ability, due to his ankle injury. Bradford's listed as questionable for the game. There are too many variables, intangibles and strong trends to overlook in the match up between San Francisco and St. Louis other than to go with the 49ers as the play. MJM is taking San Francisco as a "Top Play of the Week" in what should be a blowout victory!

3. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for some of the "Preferred Plays" for Week 13 of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

UNDER 38 points in the HOUSTON TEXANS / ATLANTA FALCONS game

Noteworthy trend(s): Atlanta Falcons games have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points in 8 out of 11 games this season. Atlanta AWAY games have gone UNDER in 3 of the 5 games played this season. Additionally, the Falcons have played in 7 consecutive games that went UNDER the TOTAL OVER / UNDER points (current and active streak). The Falcons have played against some high scoring and potent offensive minded teams (including Green Bay, Detroit and New Orleans) during this consecutive UNDER streak.
Noteworthy trend(s): Houston Texans games have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points in 7 out of 11 games this season. HOME games, involving the Houston Texans, have gone UNDER in 4 out of 5 contests in 2011. The one OVER play was Houston's 30-12 victory against the Cleveland Browns (the total Over and Under points went OVER by a single point).
Intangible factor(s): Obviously there are strong and compelling trends to suggest that the UNDER play is the correct choice in this contest between Atlanta and Houston. Both teams are playing well on defense. Atlanta features a top ranked run defense that will be geared to stop Houston's strong running game (lead by Arian Foster). Houston will be challenged to be successful through the air as they are starting a third string rookie quarterback (T. J. Yates) who has replaced starter (Matt Schaub-placed on injured reserve for a foot problem) and Matt Leinart who was also lost for the season (Can anyone hear the front office discussion about calling recently retired Brett Favre to take the Texans to the promised land)? Atlanta's offense will also be challenged as they face the NFL's overall top ranked defense. MJM is going with the trends favoring the UNDER play and will look for a rather low scoring game. Take the UNDER in this game!

2. UNDER 54 points in the NEW YORK GIANTS / GREEN BAY PACKERS game

Noteworthy trend(s): Green Bay games have gone OVER 7 out of 11 times this season. Green Bay Packers AWAY games, in 2010, went UNDER the total Over and Under points 7 out of 8 times (during the regular season) and 2 out of 3 post season away games too.
Intangible factor: The New York Giants have the unenviable assignment of slowing down the Green Bay offense. The Giants will have to win the time of possession category to have a chance in winning this contest (yes, winning the contest and stopping the Packers 11 game consecutive win streak is a possibility) and also maintaining a manageable score. Look for the Giants to run the ball, slow down the game by using the game clock and incorporating short, safe passes to keep the clock and chains moving. MJM is going with the UNDER play in this contest.

3. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Noteworthy trend(s): Baltimore is 13-7, straight up, and 10-10, vs. the spread, the last 20 games that they have played against Cleveland. However, Baltimore is 12-4, straight up, since the beginning of the 2003 season in games played against the Browns.
Noteworthy trend(s): Baltimore currently has a six game winning streak against Cleveland and is 5-1 vs. the spread in these same six games. Additionally, Baltimore has recently dominated the scoring in these games which is reflected in their significant average margin of victory (AMV). Baltimore's AMV, in games played against Cleveland since the 2008 season, is just over 15 points per contest. The Ravens have won the comparison games by margins of 18, 10, 31, 16 (shutout victory), 7 and 10 points.
Intangible factor: This contest should not even be close. Both teams are heading in different directions (Baltimore is heading toward the AFC North division title or at least a playoff spot while Cleveland is mired in another losing season) and this will be evident at the end of the game. Cleveland just does not have anyone that could be considered (healthy) play makers at the moment. Baltimore has a stout defense and several options on offense (mainly Ray Rice) to take advantage of. Go with Baltimore as a touchdown favorite to cover the line (maybe even by halftime).

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAYS

Don't forget to sign up for other free picks on our Home page or Contact Us page. Good luck to all of our clients and to those interested in using our service in the future.

Please register for your additional "free pick" NOW!!

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 4-2-1 winning record versus the spread for week 12 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 12 predictions:

Top Plays were 2-1-1 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 1-1-0 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 1-0-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 12 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 12 ( 11/27/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

DALLAS COWBOYS (Giving the points); 7 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (Getting points); 7 points at time of publication.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (Giving the points); 3.5 points at time of publication.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (Getting points); 7 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

OVER the total points in the DETROIT LIONS / GREEN BAY PACKERS game; 56 points at time of publication.
OVER the total points in the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES / NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS game; 50.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: None for the week.

UNDER 40 POINTS in the BALTIMORE RAVENS / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS game.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

DALLAS COWBOYS

Since the 1990 season, Dallas has a winning record of 13-8, straight up, in Turkey Day games. The Cowboys are also 15-6, against the spread, in these same 21 Thanksgiving Day games. Dallas lost two Thanksgiving Day games outright, in 2001 to Denver and in 2010 to New Orleans, in which the Cowboys were underdogs but covered the line.
Noteworthy trend(s): Dallas is a perfect 13-0 vs. the spread the last 13 victories that they have had on Thanksgiving Day. This stat covers games dating back to the 1990 season. 11 of the 13 Dallas victories, previously mentioned, were when Dallas was a favorite (the two straight up victories, in the role of an underdog, came against the Cowboys much despised intra division rival, the Washington Redskins, in 1990 and 2002).
Noteworthy trend(s): Since 1990, Dallas has been a Thanksgiving Day favorite twice as often as they have been an underdog (14 times as a favorite and 7 times as a dog). As a favorite, Dallas is 11-3 both straight up and vs. the spread (also dating back to 1990). Two of the three straight up and against the spread losses have been against the Miami Dolphins (Miami won in 1993 and 2003). In fact, Miami is 2-1 both straight up and vs. the spread against Dallas (Dallas beat Miami 20-0 in the 1999 Turkey Day classic) in these previously mentioned Thanksgiving Day games.
Intangible factor(s): Dallas has been favored by MORE than a touchdown in 8 Thanksgiving Day games since 1992. The Cowboys are 7-1 both straight up and against the spread in these same 8 contests (Ironically, the only loss was to Miami, in 1993, when Dallas was a 9 point favorite in the now famous Leon "Bonehead" Lett Snowbowl Gobbler game). Of course, Miami won by the score of 16-14. The average margin of victory (AMV), in the above mentioned games, was approximately 21.5 points per Dallas victory! (The Cowboys are a 7 point favorite against Miami). MJM is going with the strong Thanksgiving Day trend(s) that favor Dallas. The Cowboys tend to win on Turkey Day, overall, and they WIN BIG when coming into the game as a somewhat heavy favorite (favored by at least a touchdown). Take the Dallas Cowboys, in this Turkey Day classic, to win the game comfortably and by a couple of scores.

2. CLEVELAND BROWNS

Noteworthy trend(s): Cleveland is 3-11, straight up, the last 14 games played against Cincinnati (including the Browns 2011 - Week 1 loss to the Bengals). However, the Browns are 3-2 vs. the spread the last 5 games played against the Bengals.
Intangible factor(s): The Browns have not played well against their in-state / intra division rival over the past several years. Cleveland lacks play making offensive talent at just about every position and has had to deal with recent injuries to their starting and backup running backs. The good news for the Browns will be the anticipated return of both Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty (the above mentioned running backs) for the contest with the Bengals. Peyton Hillis will start the ball game and should be a major contributor for Cleveland. Hillis should be well rested and ready to go as he has been sidelined with a hamstring injury since the beginning of November. MJM would not be shocked with a straight up (upset) victory by the Browns. Cincinnati most likely will be overlooking the Cleveland game as they face the Browns right after back to back games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore and prior to back to back games against Pittsburgh and Houston (All four games against three potential 2011 playoff teams). MJM likes the Browns to at least cover in the "Battle of Ohio" and is going against a strong trend that favors the Bengals (as previously mentioned in the above game analysis). Take the Cleveland Browns (+7) plus the points in this game against Cincinnati.

3. CAROLINA PANTHERS

Noteworthy trend(s): Carolina has lost 12 consecutive road games (See week 11-Top Play game analysis for further detail) while the Colts have lost 10 straight games in the 2011 season. Some team has to win this game (or could it end in a tie?).
Noteworthy trend(s): Carolina and Indianapolis have played four total times since the Panthers entered the NFL in 1995. Carolina is 3-1 in these contests both straight up and vs. the spread. Indianapolis won the other contest outright and vs. the spread. Carolina is 2-0 in games played at Indianapolis. The Panthers also have been underdogs in all four games against the Colts. It will be interesting to see how Carolina responds as a ROAD FAVORITE (-3.5 points) as they obviously have struggled in away games.
Intangible factor(s): Sports enthusiasts say that golf is a game of inches. The same could be said about football and the saying could even be applied to "success in the NFL could depend on one player"! For the Indianapolis Colts and the Carolina Panthers, that one player could very well be their starting quarterback. Peyton Manning truly is the straw that stirs the drink in Indy (In fact, he appears to be the drink, the glass, the everything that the Colts need to be successful). Manning's neck injury and presumed missing the entire 2011 season will ensure tough times for the Colts the rest of the year. Cam Newton, Carolina's rookie QB, has really brought about a resurgence in the overall team attitude and scoring prowess. Carolina is averaging approximately 23 points per game while Indianapolis is averaging a meager 13 points per contest this season. Both teams are yielding in the range of 30 points per game. One team is capable of scoring 30 points in this game and it is NOT the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS. Look for the Carolina Panthers to end their winless road streak against Indiananpolis. MJM is taking the Panthers to win easily against the Colts.

4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Noteworthy trend(s): Jacksonville is 6-2, straight up, the last 8 HOME games played against Houston. The Jaguars are 4-4 vs. the spread for these same comparison games against the Texans. Jacksonville is 4-0, straight up, the last four home games played against Houston.
Intangible factor(s): Jacksonville has been a Home Underdog in all four games that they have played at EverBank Field (Jacksonville) in 2011. Jacksonville is 2-2 both straight up and against the spread in these four home games that have been played against some fairly good competition. The Jaguars have played against three potential 2011 playoff teams, at home this season, including straight up and against the spread losses to New Orleans and Cincinnati and a straight up and against the spread win against Baltimore. Matt Leinart, Houston's new starting quarterback, will try to operate the high powered Houston offense without missing a beat. Leinart, who just replaced the injured Matt Schaub, will face a Jacksonville defense that has held it's ground this season. Jacksonville will most likely utilize their dynamic running back, Maurice Jones Drew (MJD), in an effort to slow down the game and focus on a ball control game plan. MJM envisions a game that will result in a closer outcome than most would figure. MJM is taking MJD to WIN (at least to cover the line) in this contest versus a team that the Jaguars have had recent success against. Take the Jaguars (+7) plus the points to take advantage of Houston's situation at quarterback.

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for the "Preferred Plays" for Week 12 of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

OVER 56 points in the DETROIT LIONS / GREEN BAY PACKERS game

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

2. OVER 50.5 points in the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES / NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS game

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor:

3. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 3-3-0 record versus the spread for week 11 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 11 predictions:

Top Plays were 2-1-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 1-1 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 0-1-0 vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 11 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 11 ( 11/20/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

CAROLINA PANTHERS (Getting points); 7 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (Giving the points); 6.5 points at time of publication.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Giving the points); 10.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

GREEN BAY PACKERS (Giving the points); 14 points at time of publication.
OVER the total points in the MINNESOTA VIKINGS / OAKLAND RAIDERS game; 46 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: There are several matchups that could qualify for MJM's "Trend Buster" play of the week (including Green Bay vs. Tampa Bay). However, MJM is going with the St. Louis Rams for this week's play. St. Louis has lost 11 out of the last 12 games, straight up, and is 3-9 vs. the spread in these same comparison games. Sam Bradford is getting healthier and should now be developing a good rapport with the Rams main receiving threat (Brandon Lloyd). Additionally, Steven Jackson is healthy and running almost as good as ever. The Seahawks counter with their own solid running back (Marshawn Lynch) who has been playing well as of late. However, the Seahawks have to deal with their inconsistent QB play (Tavaris Jackson has a pectoral muscle injury) and little additional offensive threats to challenge the St. Louis Rams defense. Additionally, MJM has previously documented the Seahawks pathetic play as road underdogs. MJM is going with the Rams (-3) to win and cover against Seattle.

NEW YORK JETS over the Denver Broncos. The Jets are six point favorites over the Broncos. The teams have played four games since the 2002 season. Each team has won and lost, at home and on the road, against each other. The outright winner of the game, in this series, has also covered the spread. MJM envisions the Jets winning by at least a touchdown with a potentially low scoring game. The New York Jets will focus on stopping Tim Tebow and Denver's one dimensional offense. MJM is taking the Jets in this contest despite their poor road record this season.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Since the 2002 season, Carolina has played four games against the Detroit Lions. Carolina is 4-0 straight up (2-2 vs. the spread) in these four games against Detroit.
Noteworthy trend(s): The Carolina Panthers have lost 11 consecutive ROAD games (including all 8 away games in the 2010 season and all three away games in the 2011 season to date). Additionally, Carolina has lost 14 of the past 15 road games with their lone victory being a 41-9 drubbing of the N.Y. Giants in the last away game in 2009. However, the Panthers have covered the spread a respectable 6 of the 14 road games (one tie) referenced above.
Noteworthy trend(s): Detroit has two negative strong trends going against them in their game against Carolina. First, Detroit is 1-6, vs. the spread, as a home favorite and playing an opponent with a .333 winning record or less (Carolina is 2-7 or .222 in 2011). Second, Detroit is 6-12, vs. the spread, the last 18 opportunities in the game previous to playing the Green Bay Packers (Detroit and Green Bay play on Thanksgiving Day - Week 12). The above statistic is even more significant as the Lions are 2-9, straight up and vs. the spread, over the last 11 games given the same scenario. Detroit just does not play well against opponents in the game prior to playing Green Bay.
Intangible factor: Both teams are coming off of big losses in week 10. Detroit lost, 37-13, at Chicago. Carolina lost 30-3, at home, against the Tennessee Titans. Detroit's QB (Matthew Stafford injured / fractured finger) play will have a major impact on the outcome of the game. The same can be said about Carolina's rookie QB (Cam Newton) and how he responds to recent setbacks. Overall, MJM envisions a close game being settled by a field goal. Take the Carolina Panthers (+7) plus the seven points to cover against Detroit and even possibly upset the Detroit Lions.

2. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore has been playing like two totally different teams, when comparing games at home and away, this season. The Ravens, at a 6-3 overall record, have won all four of their HOME games this season (Baltimore is also 3-1 vs. the spread in home contests). The average margin of victory (AMV) in the four Baltimore victories is close to 16 points per game (taking away a 3 point victory over Arizona would result in the AMV being 20 points per game). In addition, the winning margin in games played between the two teams has been 7 points or less in 7 of the last 10 games. Baltimore HOME games have gone OVER 3 out of 4 times this season while Cincinnati AWAY games have gone OVER 4 out of 5 times this season.
Noteworthy trend(s): Cincinnati has covered the last four games they have played against Baltimore and are also 3-1 straight up in these games. Baltimore has gone 6-4, straight up , and 5-5, vs. the spread, in the last 10 HOME games played against Cincinnati.
Noteworthy trend(s): The UNDER play has come in 7 out of the last 9 total games played between the Ravens and Bengals (including the last four in a row in Baltimore).
Intangible factor(s): Baltimore's offense has been out of sync somewhat this season mainly from inconsistent overall play from starting QB (Joe Flacco). As usual, Baltimore's defense is one of the top ranked in the league. However, their inspirational leader (Ray Lewis) might end up missing this game due to a toe injury. Cincinnati might also be down a play maker on the offensive side of the ball. Rookie WR A.J. Green is dealing with a knee injury and has not practiced this week. Baltimore could more afford to have it's star defensive player on the sidelines this week rather than Cincinnati missing one of their "rookie" top performers. Look for Baltimore to bounce back from their upset to Seattle last week and end the mini win streak that Cincinnati has going against them. Cincinnati's other rookie top performer (QB Andy Dalton) just might be in store for a terrible outing at the hands of this experienced and nasty defense. MJM is going with the Ravens to dominate on the defensive side of the ball, run the ball effectively and for Joe Flacco to put together a solid outing in this contest. Look for the Ravens to put up a double digit victory in what typically is a game that is settled by one score. MJM recommends taking Baltimore (-7) over Cincinnati.

3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

San Francisco is 8-1 straight up and a perfect 9-0, vs. the spread, on the season. MJM sees the 49ers beating Arizona and making it to 10-0, vs. the spread, on the year.
Noteworthy trend(s): Arizona is 1-10, straight up, the last 11 AWAY games in the role of an UNDERDOG. Arizona is 4-7 against the spread (3-1 in 2011) in these same 11 games. The lone straight up victory for Arizona was their upset win at Philadelphia last week.
Noteworthy trend(s): Arizona's average margin of loss (AML), in the 10 losses mentioned above, is over 16 points per game. Also, five of the 10 losses have been by margins of: 34, 31, 18, 31 and 24 points (or nearly 4 TOUCHDOWNS per loss). San Francisco is a (-10.5) point favorite in the game with Arizona. Typically, Arizona loses road games by a large margin or relatively small margin (margins of 3, 7, 1 and 3 points in four other road losses since 2010).
Noteworthy trend(s): San Francisco has won the last 4 games, outright, against Arizona. San Francisco is 5-0, vs. the spread, the last five games played against the Cardinals. Additionally, San Francisco is 6-3, straight up at HOME, vs. Arizona since the divisional realignment took place beginning in the 2002 season (5-4 vs. the spread for the same games). The 49ers average margin of victory (AMV), in the last four overall straight up and against the spread victories over the Arizona Cardinals, is just over 17 points per contest.
Intangible factor(s): Arizona, as mentioned in the above analysis, does not play well on the road. Additionally, Arizona has lost the last three overall games to San Francisco by the following scores: 24-9 (2009), 27-6 (at Arizona in 2010) and 38-7 (2010). Kevin Kolb, Arizona's starting quarterback, will most likely be inactive or highly ineffective, in this game, due to his turf toe injury. San Francisco is on a roll having won their last seven consecutive games and MJM does not envision this streak being broken this week. MJM is taking the 49ers, as the strong statistical trends support, in what should be a relatively easy victory against the Cardinals.

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for the "Preferred Plays" for Week 11 of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Green Bay is averaging over 35 points scored per game, through the first nine games of the 2011 season, while Tampa Bay is averaging a little less than half this total (17 points per game). In addition, the Buccaneers have allowed over 25 points scored per game in 2011. Green Bay has scored 45 or points in three of the last six games they have played this season.
Noteworthy trend(s): Ironically, Tampa Bay has the strong trend regarding recent wins in games against Green Bay. Since 2001, Tampa Bay has won five of the last seven games, played against Green Bay, straight up and vs. the spread.
Intangible factor(s): The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost to four potential 2011 season playoff teams (San Francisco 49ers 48-3, Chicago Bears 24-18, New Orleans Saints 27-16 and the Houston Texans 37-9) this season. These four losses have all occurred since week 5 in which Tampa Bay is also 1-4 over this time period. Green Bay is literally unbeatable, at least through their first nine games this season, and seems to be heading toward what could be an undefeated schedule (given the favorable remaining 2011 schedule). Green Bay is 7-2, against the spread, in games this season. This game has all of the makings of a trap game where the obvious play (Green Bay) typically has a difficult time in burying an inferior team (Tampa Bay) and either loses outright or does not cover against the line. Tampa Bay has lost their last four games by an average of over 21 points per contest and seems to be in disarray with their young and inexperienced coaching staff lacking the NFL experience needed to guide this young team. MJM recommends taking the Packers to win big and cover the 14 point spread.

2. OVER 46 points in the MINNESOTA VIKINGS / OAKLAND RAIDERS game

Minnesota Vikings HOME games have gone OVER in 3 of the 4 games played, at the Mall of America Field, in 2011. Additionally, Vikings home games have come in at fairly consistent total points for the current season. Minnesota and their opponents have scored total points of: 44, 49, 44 and 60 total points in each of the four home games. The last 10 Minnesota Vikings home, including 2011 season results, have gone OVER 7 times.
Oakland Raiders AWAY games have gone OVER in 2 out of the 4 road games in 2011. The Raiders and their opponents have scored fairly consistently, in the games referenced above, with totals of: 43, 73, 45 and 41 or an average of just OVER 50 points per AWAY game.
Intangible factor: The Oakland Raiders will look to exploit the weak, injured and depleted Minnesota Vikings defensive secondary. Oakland will mix up the running game and passing game to create potential scoring opportunities. Carson Palmer, Oakland's starting quarterback, will most likely have success with the passing game as he faces a Vikings pass defense ranked 30th overall. In addition, look for Carson Palmer to get Michael Bush (Darren McFadden's replacement at running back) involved in the game early and often with a combination of running and short, flat pass receiving plays to offset Minnesota's fierce pass rush. Minnesota, on the other hand, will lean on their All Pro running back (Adrian Peterson) for most of their offensive success. Look for these two teams to put up a total score in the range of 31-20 or 28-24. MJM is taking the OVER play in this contest between the Vikings and the Raiders.

3. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 5-2-0 winning record versus the spread for week 10 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 10 predictions:

Top Plays were 1-1-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 3-1-0 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 1-0-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 10 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 10 ( 11/13/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Giving the points); 4 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
NEW YORK GIANTS (Getting points); 4 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

HOUSTON TEXANS (Giving the points); 4 points at time of publication.
UNDER the total points in the CLEVELAND BROWNS / ST. LOUIS RAMS game; 36.5 points at time of publication.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Giving the points); 13.5 points at time of publication.
UNDER the total points in the ATLANTA FALCONS / NEW ORLEANS SAINTS game; 50 points at time of publication.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: None for the week.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (+7) over the San Diego Chargers.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Noteworthy trend(s): Pittsburgh is 14-4, both straight up and against the spread, the last 18 AWAY games played, in Cincinnati, against the Bengals. This statistic includes the 2005 season playoff game, won by Pittsburgh, played at Paul Brown Stadium (Cincinnati). The Steelers lost to the Bengals, straight up and vs. the spread, the following years (regarding the above analysis): 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2009. The overall comparison statistic includes games played from the 1994 through 2010 seasons (Pittsburgh at Cincinnati).
Noteworthy trend(s): Overall, Pittsburgh has won 24 of the past 35 games played against Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has covered 22 of the 24 times they have won outright against the Bengals (1994-2010). The only two victories, in which Pittsburgh did not cover regarding this comparison, were in 1994 and 2002. Both games were played in Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh was a double digit (13.5 and 10.5) favorite.
Noteworthy trend(s): The outright winner, in this contest between AFC North division rivals, typically covers the spread. 33 out of the past 35, straight up winners in the Pittsburgh / Cincinnati series, have covered the line. Again, the only two times this strong trend did not come through were Pittsburgh victories in 1994 and 2002 (see above). This trend covers 1994-2010 regular season games and the 2005 season playoff game.
Intangible factor(s): Both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are off to good starts for the 2011 season. Cincinnati, with a surprising 6-2 record, can stay in first place with a victory against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh, at 6-3 and having already lost to first place Baltimore twice this season, needs to win this game or face a difficult challenge in trying to reach the playoffs. Pittsburgh has a strong trend (see above analysis) that supports a PLAY ON the STEELERS in this contest. Additionally, Pittsburgh's average margin of victory (AMV) in the 14 wins against Cincinnati, in the above comparison, is approximately 15 points per victory. Further breakdown of the AMV indicates that Pittsburgh won by an AMV of nearly 20 points per win in the six wins they registered, against Cincinnati, from 1994-2002. Pittsburgh's AMV, in their 8 wins against Cincinnati from 2003-2010, was slightly more than 11 points per victory. It should be noted that PITTSBURGH has won all 14 games, as described in the above trend analysis, by AT LEAST 5 points in each of the 14 contests won in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh's lowest winning margins were: 5, 6, 6 and 7 points. However, Pittsburgh has also beaten Cincinnati, by AT LEAST 14 points, in nine of the 14 victories (with the other winning margin being 11 points). MJM recommends taking the PITTSBURGH STEELERS to win in this contest, and based upon the above strong trend, for Pittsburgh to cover the line against Cincinnati. The Bengals are (+4) 4 point underdogs at home in this game. The Steelers should have no problem with maintaining the trend favoring straight up and against the spread winners.

2. NEW YORK GIANTS

The New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers have played four times, in San Francisco, since the 1995 season (1995, 1998, 2002 and 2005). San Francisco is 3-1, straight up, against the New York Giants when playing at home the last four games. However, the New York Giants are 3-1 vs. the spread in these same four games against San Francisco.
Noteworthy trend(s): The New York Giants are 5-0 vs. the spread (3-2 straight up) the last five games played vs. San Francisco.
Noteworthy trend(s): The Giants have won, both straight up and against the spread, the last three consecutive games played against San Francisco. The average margin of victory (AMV) in these three Giants victories was 16 points per win.
Intangible factor(s): San Francisco is off to a tremendous start, 7-1 record in 2011, with their only defeat being an overtime loss to the Dallas Cowboys in week 2. In addition, San Francisco has covered in every game (a perfect 8-0) this season!! Will the 49ers be able to continue this near impossible winning streak (San Francisco had 6.5 average number of wins, per season, from 2007-2010 and the 49ers also had a per season average of 7 against the spread wins over the same period). This game should be one of the best this weekend. Both teams are playing well and are in first place in their respective divisions. MJM predicts a close game with the final outcome possibly being decided by a single play (offensive or defensive). The Giants are primed to upset the 49ers. MJM recommends taking New York, plus the points (+4), to at least keep the game close and cover the spread against San Francisco.

3. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for some of the "Preferred Plays" for Week 10 of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

HOUSTON TEXANS

Houston and Tampa Bay have only played twice since Houston became an NFL expansion team in 2002. In 2003, Tampa Bay beat the Houston Texans by the score of 16-3. Houston returned the favor by beating Tampa Bay, 28-14, in 2007. Each team is 1-1 both straight up and vs. the spread in these two games. The Over and Under total points is also at one game each (for the Over and for the Under).
Noteworthy trend(s): Tampa Bay is 2-10 vs. the spread (1-1 this season) as a HOME Underdog dating back to the beginning of the 2009 season. Houston is a (-4) four point favorite in this game against Tampa Bay.
Intangible factor(s): Tampa Bay has lost three of the last four games, straight up, that they have played in (by margins of 45, 6 and 11 points). Houston is on the opposite side of the won / loss tracks and is riding a three game winning streak. The average margin of victory (AMV) in the above mentioned games was slightly more than 20 points per contest. Houston's offense has performed well even without their star WR (Andre Johnson). Additionally, Houston's defense has benefitted from the arrival of Wade Phillips (former head coach) as the new defensive coordinator. Houston's defense is among the top ranked units in the league. MJM recommends taking the Houston Texans and giving the four (-4) points to Tampa Bay. The Bucs are not currently playing well, have a strong trend against them (home underdog) and are facing an opponent that has more talent on both sides of the ball. Houston should easily cover this game against Tampa Bay.

2. UNDER 36.5 points in the CLEVELAND BROWNS / ST. LOUIS RAMS game

Cleveland is 4-4 regarding the Over / Under total points in the eight 2011 season games they have played.
Noteworthy trend(s): The St. Louis Rams, on the other hand, are a poor road team for OVER plays (regarding Over / Under plays). The Rams have played four AWAY games in the 2011 season and the games have gone UNDER, the total Over / Under points, in 3 of the 4 games (with one tie). The UNDER play came in for 6 out of 8 (AWAY) games in 2009 and 5 out of 8 (AWAY) games in 2010 in those contests involving the St. Louis Rams on the road. Overall, AWAY games played by the Rams have come in UNDER the total Over / Under points in 14 out of the past 20 games.
Intangible factor: The Browns are averaging just UNDER 15 points scored per game in 2011. Cleveland is giving up just over 21 points on defense. However, the Browns do boast one of the better pass defenses in the league (Cleveland recently ranked #2 overall pass defense prior to their week 9 game against Houston). This should bode well since the Rams QB (Sam Bradford) has been affected by recent injuries and might not be at 100%. Also, new rookie Browns head coach (Pat Shurmur) should be able to provide valuable insight into the St. Louis Rams offensive game plan since he was the Rams offensive coordinator in 2010. St. Louis has struggled to score points in 2011 and are at a 12.5 point average per game. Also, the Rams are giving up 26 points per game on defense. Bottom line, this game should be a low scoring contest. Both the Browns and the Rams are averaging about two touchdowns each per game. Also, the Browns will be playing without their top two running backs (Starting RB - Peyton Hillis and second string Montario Hardesty) due to injuries. The Browns top wide receiver will also be out of the contest. Overall, there are several factors that indicate the play in this contest should be: take UNDER 36.5 points. MJM Sportsline recommends the Under play as a very good option and the result of recent intangible factors and statistical trends.

3. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Noteworthy trend(s): Arizona is 0-10, straight up, the last 10 AWAY games in the role of an UNDERDOG. Arizona is 3-7 against the spread (2-1 in 2011) in these same 10 games.
Noteworthy trend(s): Arizona's average margin of loss (AML), in the 10 games mentioned above, is over 16 points per game. Also, five of the 10 losses have been by margins of: 34, 31, 18, 31 and 24 points (or nearly 4 TOUCHDOWNS per loss). Philadelphia is a (-13.5) point favorite in the game with Arizona. Typically, Arizona loses road games by a large margin or relatively small margin (margins of 3, 7, 1 and 3 points in four other road losses since 2010).
Noteworthy trend(s): Philadelphia is 6-0, vs. the spread, in games that they are HOME FAVORITES of 7 or more points, coming off of a straight up favorite loss (Philadelphia was an 8 point favorite against Chicago last week and lost outright by the score of 30-24) and playing an opponent with a record of .500 or worse (Arizona is coming into this contest with a 2-6 record). Additionally, Philadelphia plays against the New York Giants in week 11. Philadelphia is a perfect 6-0, vs. the spread, and 5-1, straight up, in the last six regular season games (2008-2010) prior to the Giants game.
Intangible factor: The "cards" seem to be stacked against "The Cards" in this contest. Philadelphia has only played Arizona twice, at home, since the 2002 season. However, each of these victories were blowouts. The Eagles won 38-14 (2002) and 48-20 (2008). MJM recommends taking the Eagles as (-13.5 point) favorites, as the above strong trends analysis supports, to easily win this game by at least a couple of touchdowns.

4. UNDER 50 points in the ATLANTA FALCONS / NEW ORLEANS SAINTS game

Noteworthy trend(s): New Orleans typically is involved in games going UNDER the total Over and Under points when playing against their NFC South Division rivals (in AWAY games). Road games involving the New Orleans Saints, played against their NFC South Division rivals, have resulted in the total score of these games coming in 5-12 (UNDER) the last 17 games that the Saints have been away at a division opponent (1-1 for the two games played in week 5 and 6 of the 2011 season).
Noteworthy trend(s): 15 out of the last 17 games, involving the New Orleans Saints (AWAY) and their NFC South Division rivals have gone UNDER the current Over and Under line (50 total points) in the Atlanta Falcons / New Orleans Saints game. The only two AWAY games that went OVER the total Over and Under points, in the above comparison, were the 2008 game played against Atlanta and the 2011 week 5 game played against Carolina.
Intangible factor: Atlanta will most likely try to manage the game clock by running the ball with their All Pro RB (Michael Turner) in an effort to keep Drew Brees off the field (as much as possible). Prior games were close to being shoot outs with points scored totaling: 48, 54, 54, 62, 49, 51 and 31 in the last seven contests between these two teams. MJM likes the UNDER 50 total points play in this contest as Atlanta should be able to implement their game plan at home against the New Orleans Saints.

Don't forget to sign up for other free picks on our Home page or Contact Us page. Good luck to all of our clients and to those interested in using our service in the future.

Please register for your additional "free pick" NOW!!

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 3-3-0 winning record versus the spread for week 9 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 9 predictions:

Top Plays were 2-1-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 0-2-0 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 1-0-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 9 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 9 ( 11/06/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

DALLAS COWBOYS (Giving the points); 11 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (Giving the points); 9 points at time of publication.
CHICAGO BEARS (Getting points); 8 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

OAKLAND RAIDERS (Giving the points); 7.5 points at time of publication.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Giving the points); 3.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: None for the week.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (+5) over the Kansas City Chiefs.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

DALLAS COWBOYS

Noteworthy trend(s): See previous weekly analysis regarding Seattle's record as an away underdog.
Intangible factor(s):

2. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

3. CHICAGO BEARS

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for some of the "Preferred Plays" for Week 9 of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor(s):

2. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Noteworthy trend(s):
Intangible factor:

3. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Don't forget to sign up for other free picks on our Home page or Contact Us page. Good luck to all of our clients and to those interested in using our service in the future.

Please register for your additional "free pick" NOW!!

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 3-3-1 winning record versus the spread for week 8 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 8 predictions:

Top Plays were 0-3-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 2-0-1 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 1-0-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 8 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 8 ( 10/30/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

BALTIMORE RAVENS (Giving the points); 12.5 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
OVER the total points in the PITTSBURGH STEELERS / NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS game; 52.5 points at time of publication.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (Giving the points); 3 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

UNDER the total points in the CAROLINA PANTHERS / MINNESOTA VIKINGS game; 47 points at time of publication.
HOUSTON TEXANS (Giving the points); 10 points at time of publication.
DETROIT LIONS (Giving the points); 3.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys. Philadelphia is 3-6 and 4-5, straight up and against the spread, the last nine games played against Dallas (including the 2009 season playoff game). The Eagles have a high octane offense and should be able to put things together against their formidable NFC East Division rival. Dallas has been a good road dog as of late. The Cowboys are 7-3, against the spread, in their last 10 games played as an away underdog (including 2-0 this season). The Cowboys have played competitively, on the road, this season and lost to the N.Y. Jets and New England by a combined 7 total points. Dallas also handed San Francisco their only loss this season. Look for the Eagles to get their running game going (Vick and McCoy) to open up their potent passing attack. Philadelphia, at 2-4 on the year, is facing a must win situation against Dallas to have any hope of salvaging their playoff dreams. Take Philadelphia (-3) to win and give the points to Dallas.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS over the Cleveland Browns. San Francisco is off to a hot start having won five of their first six games, straight up, this season. Additionally, the 49ers are 6-0 vs. the spread in 2011. Odds are that the 49ers are due for a loss (either straight up and / or against the spread). That's correct! However, MJM does not envision the loss happening against the Browns. Take San Francisco, as a 9 point favorite, to beat the Browns rather easily.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Noteworthy trend(s): Arizona is 2-13 straight up and 3-11-1 vs. the spread the last 15 road games they have played. Additionally, both of the straight up away victories were against Detroit (2009) and St. Louis (2010). This statistic includes an 0-3 record, straight up, for Arizona in 2011. Arizona is 1-2, vs. the spread, in 2011 away games.
Noteworthy trend(s): Baltimore is 10-4 vs. the spread, at HOME, as a double digit favorite and playing an opponent coming off of a straight up loss. Arizona lost to Pittsburgh, 32-20, in week 7. Prior to 2010, Baltimore was 10-2 regarding this statistic. The Ravens won both 2010 games (Cleveland and Buffalo), straight up, where this statistic applied. However, Baltimore failed to cover the line in either game.
Intangible factor(s): Baltimore will be coming into this game in a nasty mood after losing to Jacksonville on Monday Night Football this past week. In addition, Baltimore's top wide receiver (Anquan Boldin) will have extra motivation to play well against his former team (Cardinals). Baltimore has won 4 games, this season, by margins of 28, 30, 17 and 15 points. The average margin of victory (AMV), for Baltimore regarding their four 2011 wins, is approximately 23 points per game! This contest involves a strong for the play (Baltimore) and against the play (Arizona) trend as discussed in the above analysis commentary. MJM likes the Baltimore Ravens to win this game, by a couple of scores, and continue the AMV trend. Take Baltimore (-12.5) and give the points in a game that could get ugly.

2. OVER 52.5 points in the PITTSBURGH STEELERS / NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS game

Noteworthy trend(s): Since 2001, the New England Patriots are 6-2, both straight up and vs. the spread, the last eight games played against Pittsburgh. New England is 2-1 both straight up and against the spread, at home, vs. Pittsburgh.
Noteworthy trend(s): The Patriots are 4-1, both straight up and against the spread, the last five games played, at Heinz Field, against the Steelers. The outright winner of the past eight games played between the Steelers / Patriots has also covered the spread. Additionally, the game winning margins, in the five games played in Pittsburgh and part of the above analysis, have been: 7, 14, 14, 3 and 13 points. New England is a 3 point (-3) favorite in this game.
Noteworthy trend(s): 7 out of the 8 games, in the above analysis, have gone OVER the Over and Under total points. The one game that went Under the total points went under by one point (New England's 34-13 victory against Pittsburgh in 2007). All five games, played in Pittsburgh, have gone OVER the total Over and Under points. The average total points scored, in Pittsburgh home games played against the Patriots, is approximately 54 points per game.
Intangible factor: The Patriots seemingly have somewhat owned the Steelers lately. Tom Brady and Company can light up the scoreboard almost at will and are averaging more than 30 points scored per game (in 2011). However, the Steelers are taking on a new look with their offensive strategy. Pittsburgh is starting to pass first to set up the running game. This approach might play right into Pittsburgh's hands as the Patriots defense is simply terrible. Look for Pittsburgh to win the game outright, in a minor upset, with both teams putting on an aerial display. MJM envisions a great game with plenty of scoring as is typical in games between these two teams. Go with the strong trend and take the OVER 52.5 points in this contest.

3. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

San Diego has won 3 out of the last 4 games, straight up, against the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium.
San Diego has won 4 of the last 5 games, straight up, against Kansas City (including a 20-17 victory in week 3 of this season). The other three Chargers victories were by the following scores: 37-7, 43-14 and 31-0 or an average margin of victory (AMV) of 30 points per game. The AMV, if adding in the week 3 2011 San Diego victory, would be 23.25 points per game.
Intangible factor(s): San Diego has gotten out to a relatively fast, but atypical, start (4-2 record) for the 2011 season. San Diego has had only one other season (Marty Schottenheimer's 2006 team that finished with a 14-2 regular season record) where the Chargers have posted a better record through their first six games comparing to the last eight seasons. The Chargers offense is averaging just above 23 points per game this season. The Chiefs are averaging slightly more than 17 points a game. Additionally, Kansas City lost it's star offensive weapon (Jamaal Charles) as the result of a season ending injury earlier this year. The Chiefs have QB Matt Cassel to depend upon for success on offense. However, Cassel has not proven that he can be the main man to lead the team to success. MJM likes the Chargers (-3) to easily post an outright and against the spread victory against Kansas City given the strong trends that were presented in the game analysis.

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for some of the "Preferred Plays" for Week 8 of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

UNDER 47 points in the CAROLINA PANTHERS / MINNESOTA VIKINGS game

Noteworthy trend(s): Carolina HOME games went UNDER the total Over and Under points 6 out of 8 games in 2009 and 5 out of 7 games (with one Over and Under tie) in 2010. Minnesota AWAY games went UNDER the total Over and Under points in 5 out of 8 games last season. Additionally, Minnesota away games have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points in 6 of the last 7 road games that the Vikings have played in (including 3 games in the 2011 season).
Noteworthy trend(s): Carolina HOME games have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points, from the 2006 season through the 2010 season, a total of 12-26-2 times (statistic favors the UNDER). Additionally, Carolina and Minnesota have played three games within the last five seasons. The UNDER play has come in all three times (3-0) with scores in these three contests totaling: 29, 30 and 33 points.
Noteworthy trend(s): Since the 2001 season, Carolina and Minnesota have played a total of six times. Carolina is 4-2, both straight up and vs. the spread, in these six games. The Vikings won and covered the other two games played against the Panthers.
Intangible factor(s): Carolina games have gone OVER the total Over and Under points in 5 out of 7 games this season (3-1 at Home this season). Minnesota games have gone OVER the total Over and Under points in 4 out of 7 games this season (1-2 on the road). However, a statistic more relevant to the above analysis is that 5 of the last 6 games, played between the Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points. The total points scored in these six contests were: 37, 35, 51, 29, 30 and 33 or an average of approximately 36 points per game. The Vikings will look to help out their rookie QB (Ponder) and give Carolina a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson. The Vikings defense is quick enough to put pressure on Carolina's rookie QB (Newton) and contain him in the pocket. Look for the game to go at a slower pace as a result of Minnesota's effort on both sides of the ball. As a side note, take Minnesota as a (+3.5) point underdog against a decent, but young and inexperienced Carolina team. However, MJM recommends taking UNDER 47 points in the Carolina / Minnesota game as a Week 8 "Preferred Play of the Week" based upon strong trends presented in the above analysis.

2. HOUSTON TEXANS

Houston is 9-9, straight up, vs. Jacksonville since the Texans entered the NFL as an expansion team in 2002. However, Houston is 12-6, vs. the spread, against Jacksonville covering the same 18 games.
Noteworthy trend(s): Houston is 4-1, both straight up and against the spread, the last five HOME games played against Jacksonville. The game winning margins of the four Texans victories over the Jaguars are: 20, 14, 13 and 17 points between these two clubs or an average margin of victory (AMV) of 16 points per contest.
Intangible factor: The Jacksonville Jaguars might be in store for a letdown this game. Again, Jacksonville played a tremendous game, this past Monday Night, and beat the Baltimore Ravens. However, most games played against the Ravens come with a cost and the Jaguars have some bumps and bruises to prove that their victory was the result of their hard fought effort against Baltimore. Houston is playing their first home game since they lost to Oakland last month. Look for Houston to showcase their offense, even with star wide receiver (Andre Johnson) not playing because of a hamstring injury. Go with the recent strong trend in this contest (Houston is 4-1 SU & ATS in the past five home games against Jacksonville with an AMV of 16 points per game). MJM recommends giving the points to Jacksonville (+10) in a game that Houston should probably win by at least two touchdowns. Take the Houston Texans (-10) in this contest!

3. DETROIT LIONS

The Detroit Lions are 3-1, vs. the spread, the last four games played against Denver. However, the two teams have played infrequently (only twice since the 2001 season) which leads to little reliability upon head to head matchups and related results.
Intangible factor(s): The game between the Detroit Lions and Denver Broncos should be dubbed the "coming full circle" game. First, the Detroit Lions last played the Denver Broncos in the 2007 season. Detroit soundly beat Denver, in Detroit, by the score of 44-7. Next, this is when the fun (or in Detroit's case, the misery) begins for the Lions and their fans. Detroit went on an 0-26 streak (straight up AWAY) the very next game that they played after their victory over Denver. This road game began what turned out to be an incredibly unbelievable bad luck streak for the Lions and showed their ineptitude in playing AWAY from the Silverdome. However, one somewhat "silver" lining during the 0-26 losing streak was the fact that Detroit covered the spread 10 times while losing against the line only 14 times (there were two ties also). Lastly, Detroit halted the losing streak, in 2010, when they went on the road and beat Tampa Bay. The following week, Detroit also beat Miami on the road. This is where the game takes on the "coming full circle" distinction. Detroit is 5-0, both straight up and vs. the spread, the last five AWAY that they have played (two in 2010 and three in 2011). Will the Lions continue to compile a somewhat new "favorable" streak, regarding playing road games, as they take on Denver in Invesco Field at Mile High (Denver)? MJM likes the Lions in this game. Denver is starting Tim Tebow, at quarterback, and the Lions pass rush should "feast" on the inexperienced QB. MJM is going with the Detroit Lions, as (-3.5) favorites to continue the "mini" win streak and extend their consecutive road victories to six games.

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Don't forget to sign up for other free picks on our Home page or Contact Us page. Good luck to all of our clients and to those interested in using our service in the future.

Please register for your additional "free pick" NOW!!

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 6-1-0 winning record versus the spread for week 7 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 7 predictions:

Top Plays were 4-0-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 1-1-0 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 1-0-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 7 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 7 (10/23/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

CAROLINA PANTHERS (Giving the points); 2.5 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
NEW YORK JETS (Getting points); 1 point at time of publication.
ATLANTA FALCONS (Getting points); 5 points at time of publication.
UNDER the total points in the OAKLAND RAIDERS / KANSAS CITY CHIEFS game; 42.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

MIAMI DOLPHINS (Getting points); 2 points at time of publication.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (Getting points); 10.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers. Minnesota is 2-6, against the spread (ATS) the last eight games played against Green Bay. The only two ATS wins were in 2009 with Brett Favre as the Vikings QB. Ironically, two of the six ATS losses were when Brett Favre was the Packers QB in the 2007 season. Christian Ponder, the Vikings 2011 number 1 pick will replace Donovan McNabb as the new starting Vikings QB this week. With all of this QB talk, let's not forget one important aspect for the Vikings to keep this game competitive. MJM is referencing the best running back in the game (Adrian Peterson). AP28 will need to run the ball "All Day" long, for the Minnesota Vikings, in order for the Vikings to stay in the game. MJM is going with the Minnesota Vikings in this intra division game and as double digit, home underdogs!

CHICAGO BEARS over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bears and Bucs take the NFL to London this week. Chicago is coming off of an impressive victory (39-10) against Minnesota. Tampa Bay posted an upset with their week 6 win against New Orleans (26-20) at home in Tampa. MJM doesn't see the Bucs upsetting the Bears. Tampa Bay is dealing with key injuries to players on offense and defense. The Bears are favored by 2 points in this contest. Look for Chicago to leave London victorious!

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Carolina and Washington have played nine times since the Carolina Panthers entered the NFL as an expansion franchise in 1995. Carolina is 2-7 straight up and 3-6 vs. the spread against Washington (lifetime).
Noteworthy trend(s): Carolina is 2-2 straight up and 0-4 vs. the spread, at HOME, against the Washington Redskins. Carolina has never won in Washington (0-5 straight up).
Noteworthy trend(s): The games played between Carolina and Washington typically are close fought, competitive contests that have been settled by a field goal in 6 of the 9 games. The other three games were settled by margins of 14, 2 and 4 points. Carolina is favored to win by 2.5 points in this game against Washington.
Intangible factor: Carolina has a young, rookie quarterback (Cam Newton) who has had a drastic, positive impact on what was an anemic offense last season. Washington counters with a replacement quarterback (John Beck) who will start his first game of the season and who has had limited playing opportunities over the last three seasons. MJM suspects that the Washington coaching staff might have already hit the panic button. MJM recommends going against the historical trend in this contest. Go with Carolina as an atypical favorite against Washington.

2. NEW YORK JETS

The New York Jets are 8-1, vs. the spread, as an underdog coming off of a divisional game (the Jets beat Miami 24-6 in week 6 action) and playing an opponent coming off of a straight up / against the spread win. San Diego defeated Denver, 29-24 in week 5, to cover the line of 3.5 points. San Diego was off last week (bye in week 6). Also, this statistic pertains to N.Y. Jets games played in the month of October.
The Jets are 4-1 before their bye week, New York is off in week 8 after playing San Diego, the last five games in this situation.
Noteworthy trend(s): The Jets are 2-0, both straight up and vs. the spread, as a HOME underdog since the 2009 season. Both wins were games played against New England in 2009 and 2010. San Diego, on the other hand, was 2-5 as an AWAY favorite in the 2010 season. The San Diego Chargers 2-5 record was for straight up and against the spread comparisons each.
Noteworthy trend(s): The New York Jets and San Diego Chargers have played in 4 regular season and 2 post season games, against each other, since the 2002 season. The Jets are 4-2 and 5-1, straight up and vs. the spread against San Diego, respectively the last 6 games they have played. Additionally, the Jets are 4-1 vs. the spread in the role as an UNDERDOG against San Diego. New York is an underdog (1 point) in this contest against San Diego. Incidentally, 4 out of the 6 games played by the N.Y. Jets / San Diego Chargers, as referenced above, have gone OVER the total Over and Under points in these games. All regular season Jets vs. Chargers games (4-0) have gone OVER in this series.
Intangible factor: The Jets will start running back LaDainian Tomlinson, against San Diego, his former team. New York is 0-3 on the road but 3-0 at home this season. MJM sees the Jets home winning streak go to four consecutive in 2011. J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets. Take the Jets as underdogs (+1) against San Diego in this game for the outright win.

3. ATLANTA FALCONS

Atlanta has played Detroit 11 times since the 1994 season. Atlanta is 5-6, straight up, but 8-3 vs. the spread for these same 11 games. Additionally, Atlanta has gone 2-5 in AWAY games played vs. Detroit (straight up) for the same comparison. The Falcons have lost 3 of these 5 games, against Detroit, by margins of 4 or less points (3, 4 ,11, 3 and 16 points). The current line is Detroit favored by 5 points.
Intangible factor(s): Detroit has started the 2011 season off (5-1 straight up) as hot as they finished the 2010 season (4 consecutive wins both straight up and vs. the spread). Detroit is 8-1-1 vs. the spread their last 10 regular season games. However, MJM is tempering this recent very good statistic with some historical trend analysis. Detroit has gone 0-8, 2-6 and 4-4, straight up at home, when comparing their records from the 2008-2010 seasons (6-18 overall HOME record for the past three seasons). MJM recognizes that the Lions are definitely showing improvement and are a different team than just three years ago. The Lions are showing tremendous improvement on both sides of the ball and have some impressive young talent (QB Matthew Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson, DT N. Suh and others) who have risen to the challenge and produced very solid numbers to date. However, Atlanta also is a similar team to the 2010 Falcons team that had a regular season record of 13-3. Atlanta typically plays well against Detroit as evidenced by the trend analysis presented above. MJM is not quite sold yet on Detroit making the transition to upper tier / elite team status at this time. Take the Falcons in this contest plus the points (+5).

4. UNDER 42.5 points in the OAKLAND RAIDERS / KANSAS CITY CHIEFS game

Since the 2008 season, Oakland games , involving the other AFC West Division teams, have gone UNDER in 10 of the 18 contests.
Noteworthy trend(s): Games played between the Oakland Raiders / Kansas City Chiefs have gone UNDER in 10 of the last 12 contests. Games played in Oakland, vs. Kansas City, have gone UNDER 5 of the past 6 games. Total points scored in Oakland home games, played against Kansas City from 2005 - 2010, were: 40, 29, 22, 33, 26 and 43. In addition, only 2 of the 12 games, part of the above analysis, went over the current 42.5 total Over and Under points that is established for this 2011 game.
Intangible factor(s): Both teams have experienced major season ending injuries and key personnel losses that will affect their offense and ability to operate optimally. Kansas City relies upon their running game to set the tone on offense and adopt a ball control scheme. Jammal Charles, Kansas City's Pro Bowl running back, was lost for the season with a knee injury earlier in the season. More recently, Oakland lost starting quarterback (Jason Campbell) also to injury (broken collarbone). Oakland traded with Cincinnati, prior to the season trade deadline, and acquired Carson Palmer. Although the trade seems to be of benefit to Oakland in the long run, MJM would not expect the deal to have much impact in the next couple of weeks until Palmer gets accustomed to his new stable of wide receivers. Take the UNDER 42.5 points in this game as the strong trend indicates.

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for some of the "Preferred Plays" for Week 7 of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Noteworthy trend(s): Miami and Denver have played seven games dating back to the 1998 season. Miami 6-1, straight up, and 7-0, vs. the spread in these games played against Denver.
Noteworthy trend(s): Miami is 3-0, both straight up and vs. the spread, in games played against Denver AT HOME. The Dolphins have won these three games by 10, 11 and 14 points for an average margin of victory (AMV) of nearly 12 points per contest against the Broncos. Additionally, Miami is 3-1, straight up, and 4-0, vs. the spread, in AWAY games played against Denver over the same comparison.
Intangible factor(s): Miami is 0-5 both straight up and vs. the spread in 2011. MJM does not see this streak being extended to 0-6. Miami is a 2 point underdog in this contest against Denver. Denver is in the midst of a potential quarterback controversy with Orton and Tebow being caught in the middle. MJM sees Miami notching their first victory of the season. Go with the Dolphins and take the points since they tend to play well against the Broncos.

2. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Jacksonville and Baltimore have played six times between 2001 and 2008 (Jacksonville is 1-5 straight up, vs. Baltimore, over these six games. Jacksonville, is also 2-3-1 vs. the spread for the above mentioned six contests). Prior to NFL divisional realignment, which occurred in 2002, the Jaguars were the dominant of the two former AFC Central Division teams. In fact, Jacksonville was a perfect 8-0, straight up, in the first eight games played (1996 to 1999) between the newest members to the NFL (Jacksonville was an expansion team in 1995 and Baltimore began play in 1996 after the team moved from Cleveland). Baltimore began a mini winning streak, against Jacksonville, in 2000 (the year Baltimore won their only Super Bowl championship as the new Ravens). Baltimore has won 7 out of the last 8 games, straight up, that they have played against Jacksonville.
Noteworthy trend(s): Jacksonville and Baltimore have, in the past, played fairly close and competitive games. The early Central Division rivalry games saw winning margins of: 3, 3, 1, 2, 14, 26, 3, 7, 3, 5, 1 and 3 points between these two clubs. Since the divisional realignment in 2002, the winning margin of the four games played has been: 7, 7, 27 and 20 points. 12 out of the 16 total games played by these two franchises have been settled by 7 or less points. The current Las Vegas line has Baltimore favored by (-10.5).
Noteworthy trend(s): Jacksonville is 5-2, straight up, vs. Baltimore at HOME (lifetime). However, the Jaguars are only 2-4-1 vs. the spread for these seven games played against the Ravens. The two losses were by 5 and 3 points (including the Jaguars 2000 loss to the eventual Super Bowl winners).
Intangible factor: MJM suspects major action is on Baltimore since the line has increased by 3 points (Vegas had Baltimore as 7.5 point favorites early in the week). Baltimore has been extremely impressive with their four straight up wins this season. The Ravens have posted winning margins of 28, 30, 17 and 15 points or an average of nearly 23 points per victory. Additionally, three of these wins came against legitimate 2011 playoff contenders (Pittsburgh, N.Y. Jets and Houston). However, MJM is bucking this impressive current trend for another trend (historical). MJM likes the Jaguars to keep this contest close (closer than most would presume). Jacksonville has a very good Monday Night Football (MNF) record of 6-3 the last nine MNF games they have played. Also, Jacksonville and Baltimore have historically (15 year trend) played close, competitive games (as presented in the above noteworthy trend analysis). MJM is going with Jacksonville as a preferred play against Baltimore.

3. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Don't forget to sign up for other free picks on our Home page or Contact Us page. Good luck to all of our clients and to those interested in using our service in the future.

Please register for your additional "free pick" NOW!!

View 2010 Predicitons | View 2009 Predictions

To view this week's predictions, log in or click here to purchase one of our packages.

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 5-1-1 record versus the spread for week 6 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 6 predictions:

Top Plays were 2-1-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 2-0 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 1-0-1 vs. the spread (MJM Sportsline is providing two picks this week).

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 6 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 6 ( 10/16/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Giving the points); 3 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
UNDER the total points in the ATLANTA FALCONS / CAROLINA PANTHERS game; 49.5 points at time of publication.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (Giving the points); 6.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

DALLAS COWBOYS (Getting points); 6.5 points at time of publication.
NEW YORK JETS (Giving the points); 7.5 points at time of publication.
No Additional Preferred Play.
No Additional Preferred Play.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: None for the week.

OAKLAND RAIDERS over the Cleveland Browns. The Raiders and Browns have played five times since the 2003 season (three games played in Oakland). Cleveland is 4-1, straight up, in these contests and 5-0 vs. the spread against Oakland. In addition, the Browns have beaten the Raiders 2 out of 3 times in the Coliseum. Look for the Raiders to win their first game back HOME since "Big Al" Davis passed away. Go with the Oakland Raiders to win by a double digit score. JUST WIN BABY! Look for Oakland to win one for their fallen general. This game could also be considered under the category of "Trend Buster" play of the week.

MJM is going with the UNDER play (See write up for New Orleans under "Top Plays of the Week" listed below) in the New Orleans / Tampa Bay game for an additional "Free Pick" based upon customer demand.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Philadelphia is 8-2 straight up and 7-3 vs. the spread the last 10 AWAY games played against Washington.
Noteworthy trend(s): The Average Margin of Victory (AMV), for Philadelphia, in the above mentioned games was 15.25 points per contest. However, two of these victories were by 30 and 31 points (last year's game was won by the score of 59-28). The AMV would still be approximately 10 points per game if these two blowout victories were excluded from the statistical analysis.
Intangible factor: The Eagles have lost four straight games after winning the 2011 season opener (against the winless St. Louis Rams). MJM does not see them losing five consecutive games. The Eagles are talented on offense and should be able to put together a decent effort on the defensive side of the ball to contain Washington's somewhat vanilla offense. Go with the strong trend favoring Philadelphia and look for a win by at least 10 points (coincidentally the AMV as discussed above).

2. UNDER the total points in the ATLANTA FALCONS / CAROLINA PANTHERS game

Noteworthy trend(s): Since the 2006 season, 24 out of the 30 games, played between the Atlanta Falcons and their NFC South division rivals have gone UNDER the 49.5 combined total points that reflects the Over and Under total for the game between the Falcons and Panthers.
Noteworthy trend(s): The Carolina Panthers have played 18 AWAY games since the 2009 season (including two games in 2011). Carolina AWAY games have only gone OVER 49.5 total points 4 out of 18 times. However, it should be noted that Panther games resulted in the OVER play coming in at 10-7-1 (regular type of Over and Under play for each game) as part of this comparison. Both 2011 Carolina AWAY games went Over the total Over and Under points (Week 1 and Week 4).
Intangible factor(s): MJM thinks that the Atlanta Falcons will try to establish their trademark running game and get Michael Turner involved early and often. Atlanta will be playing without rookie wide receiver (Julio Jones - out with a hamstring injury) and the offensive line needs to focus on keeping Matt Ryan, Atlanta's quarterback, upright. In addition, the Falcons would like to control the time of possession to keep Carolina's rookie QB (Cam Newton) off the field. Typically, Atlanta can be considered a near lock to win, at HOME, as their record would indicate. The Falcons have won 20 out of 24 home games between 2008-2010. Speaking of home, Cam Newton has added incentive to play well as he attended high school in Atlanta. MJM is under the impression that some of the NFL defenses have already begun to figure out how to limit Cam Newton's effectiveness. Look for Atlanta to contain Cam Newton, Steve Smith and other Carolina playmakers in this game. One last item regarding the "HOME" front news.....15 out of 16 Atlanta home games played in 2009 and 2010 went UNDER the referenced 49.5 points. Go with the UNDER in this contest between the Falcons and the Panthers.

3. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

New Orleans is 6-4, straight up, and 7-3, vs. the spread, the last 10 AWAY games the Saints have played against Tampa Bay.
Noteworthy trend(s): New Orleans, playing in DIVISIONAL AWAY games, have a strong trend in these games going UNDER the Over and Under total points (when comparing the last 5 seasons). Games involving the New Orleans Saints and their NFC South divisional rivals have gone 5-11 for the (UNDER) play regarding the total points. In addition, only 2 of the last 16 games, regarding this statistic went OVER the current Over and Under line of 49.5 points (the 2008 game played between New Orleans and Atlanta resulted in an Atlanta win by the score of 34-20 and last week's game played between New Orleans and Carolina that New Orleans won by the score of 30-27). More recently, 8 of the last 10 DIVISIONAL AWAY games, regarding the above analysis, have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points. This statistic is from the 2008-2010 seasons and also includes last week's away game played against Carolina. This is a relevant statistical trend as the UNDER 49.5 points in the New Orleans Saints / Tampa Bay Buccaneers is MJM's second "Free Pick" of the week for week 6 play.
Intangible factor(s): New Orleans has dominated Tampa Bay, the last two games played in Tampa, winning by scores of 38-7 and 31-6. The last three wins, by New Orleans in Tampa, have averaged in excess of 24 points per contest. New Orleans will be facing Tampa Bay without the Bucs top 2010 draft choice (Gerald McCoy). LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay's solid running back, is listed as doubtful and leaves Tampa Bay as a predictable one dimensional (passing) team. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay's quarterback, will be under considerable pressure from the Saints defense and well schemed blitz packages. Look for Drew Brees and company to get out to a quick lead and then put the clamps down on this young, inexperienced Buccaneer team headed up by young and inexperienced two year head coach (Raheem Morris). MJM likes the Saints to dominate in this game and also likes the UNDER play in this contest.

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for the "Preferred Plays" for Week 6 of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

DALLAS COWBOYS

Since the 2001 season, Dallas and New England have only played twice. New England won both games straight up and vs. the spread.
Intangible factor(s): There are no real strong trends in this contest between the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys. Obviously, the Patriots win games and win many games at home. Dallas has been plagued with poor play the past couple of years. However, MJM sees this contest as one that could be very entertaining and more competitive than many individuals think. First, Dallas can move the ball on offense and will be helped by the return of both starting wide receivers (Miles Austin and Dez Bryant). Second, Dallas can move the ball on defense. Simply put, Dallas will be able to throw on New England's pass defense which has been horrible all season. Third, Dallas can depend on some solid play from their defensive stars and might be able to limit Tom Brady's superior play at home. Rob Ryan, the new defensive coordinator for Dallas, was the "last" coordinator to hold New England below 30 points scored. New England has scored 30 plus points in 13 consecutive regular season games (the last 8 games in 2010 and the first 5 games in 2011). Ryan will benefit from tips offered by brother Rex (New York Jets head coach) who faces New England twice a year. Overall, MJM sees a fairly tight contest played between the Patriots and Cowboys with the winner coming out on top by a late game field goal (most likely by New England and only because of the home field advantage). Either way, Dallas appears to be a good play with the points (+6.5) this week.

2. NEW YORK JETS

The New York Jets have lost three consecutive home games to the Miami Dolphins. The N.Y. Jets are also 1-4, both straight up and vs. the spread, the last five games played against the Dolphins.
Intangible factor: The New York Jets are coming off of three consecutive away losses in 2011. The losses have come to three potential 2011 playoff teams (Oakland Raiders, Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots). MJM sees the Jets "righting the ship" in this contest against the winless (0-4) Dolphins. Miami's anemic offense will be challenged by the fierce play of New York's defense. Take the Jets in this Monday Night Football matchup of AFC East division rivals. Are you ready for some football?? MJM thinks that the N.Y. Jets will be. Miami, on the other hand, might be looking at a long night of frustration that culminates in the Dolphins going to an 0-5 record. Jets, Jets, Jets in this contest to easily cover the line (7.5 points).

3. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 4-5 record versus the spread for week 5 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 5 predictions:

Top Plays were 1-3-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 3-1 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 0-1 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 5 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 5 ( 10/9/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

OAKLAND RAIDERS (Getting points); 4.5 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
NEW YORK GIANTS (Giving the points); 10.5 points at time of publication.
UNDER the total points in the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS/CAROLINA PANTHERS game; 51.5 points at time of publication.
ATLANTA FALCONS (Getting points); 6.5 points at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Giving the points); 3 points at time of publication.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (Giving the points); 3.5 points at time of publication.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Giving the points); 3.5 points at time of publication.
CHICAGO BEARS (Getting points); 7 points at time of publication.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: Oakland Raiders vs. Houston Texans. The Raiders are 1-5 vs. the spread the last 6 games played against the Texans. Oakland is MJM's "Trend Buster" play of the week. Also, Oakland is a week 5 "Top Play" for MJM Sportsline. Please refer to additional detail and analysis listed under the "Top Plays" section.

NEW YORK JETS over the New England Patriots. The Jets are 7-4, vs. the spread, as an AWAY UNDERDOG the last 11 games in this role. This statistic includes all 6 (away) playoff games in the 2009 and 2010 seasons. The Jets were 2-1 vs. New England in 2010 (both straight up and vs. the spread). MJM is going with the New York Jets to either win outright or, at least, to keep the game closer than the 7.5 points they are getting as an unbderdog to the New England Patriots. MJM is going with the Jets, Jets, Jets in this contest!

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Oakland is 1-5, both straight up and vs. the spread, the last 6 games played against Houston. These two teams have met 6 times since the 2004 season (did not play - 2005 season). Oakland is 0-2, playing at Houston in Reliant Stadium, both straight up and vs. the spread.
Houston victories have been by an average margin of victory (AMV) of nearly 12 points per game when playing Oakland. Houston has won games, played against Oakland, by the following margins: 13, 9, 7, 23 and 7 points. Oakland's only victory in this series was by the score of 27-16 (Oakland was a 7 point underdog in this contest).
The average score in the six contests played between Oakland / Houston has been 43 points per game. The Over and Under total points has come in at 3-1-2 (for the OVER play having the edge in this statistic). The Over and Under sits at 48.5 points for this contest. MJM likes the UNDER play but not as strong as the outright play on OAKLAND plus the 4.5 points they are getting as underdogs in this game.
Noteworthy trend(s): Houston is 2-10 vs. the spread, during the month of October, in games 5 and 6 and vs. non divisional opponents.
Intangible factor: AL DAVIS, JUST WIN BABY, AL DAVIS, COMMITMENT TO EXCELLENCE, AL DAVIS, R.I.P. Al Davis, the much beloved / despised majority owner of the Oakland Raiders, for most of the last half century, passed away on October 8, 2011 (at age 82). Mr. Al Davis was best known as the fearless leader of the Raiders who would do just about anything to win. His legacy includes 3 Super Bowl wins and cultivating the "Just Win Baby" attitude that helped form the Raiders mystique and propel many to elite status and in the Canton Football Hall of Fame. MJM doesn't envision a "Let's win one for the Gipper" situation. However, it's a simple notion to think that the Raiders / Raider Nation will be out to prove that they can honor their former owner with a big win. MJM likes the Raiders to win outright and make AL proud. Just win baby...Just win!!

2. NEW YORK GIANTS

Since 2005, the N.Y. Giants are 12-2, vs. the spread (11-3 straight up) vs. NFC WEST teams (including 2-0 for both ATS and SU this season). This statistic includes two wins earlier this season against the St. Louis Rams and the Arizona Cardinals.
Noteworthy trend(s): The N.Y. Giants are a perfect 10-0, vs. the spread and against NFC WEST teams, when playing a season rotation that includes ALL NFC WEST teams in the same season. That is, the Giants went 4-0 in 2005 and 2008 seasons as these seasons included the rotation of playing NFC West teams. This statistic also includes the two 2011 season ATS winners in weeks 2 and 4 against the St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals, respectively.
Noteworthy trend(s): Seattle plays poorly as an AWAY team (in particular as a road underdog). The Seahawks have gone 4-18 vs. the spread the last 22 away games (2 wins were registered against the St. Louis Rams and the other two occurred in 2010 against Chicago and Arizona). Additionally, the Seahawks are 2-17 vs. the spread (and straight up) as a ROAD UNDERDOG the last 19 away games played.
Noteworthy trend(s): The average margin of LOSS (AML) for the Seattle Seahawks, in the last 17 away games played as a underdog, is approximately 20 points per game (including the away playoff loss to Chicago in 2010). This statistic includes the 2011 away games played in weeks 1 and 2 against San Francisco and Pittsburgh. Seattle lost these two games by margins of 16 and 24 points.
Intangible factor: The N. Y. Giants have dominated Seattle the last two games played. The Giants won 41-7, in last year's game played in Seattle, and 44-6 in the 2008 game played in New York. Look for the G men to continue their "dominance" against an inferior opponent.

3. UNDER the total points in the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS / CAROLINA PANTHERS game

Noteworthy trend(s): New Orleans, playing in DIVISIONAL AWAY games, have a strong trend in these games going UNDER the Over and Under total points (when comparing the last 5 seasons). Games involving the New Orleans Saints and their NFC South divisional rivals have gone 4-11 for the (UNDER) play regarding the total points. In addition, only 1 of the last 15 games, regarding this statistic went OVER the current Over and Under line of 51.5 points (the 2008 game played between New Orleans and Atlanta resulted in an Atlanta win by the score of 34-20). More recently, 8 of the last 9 DIVISIONAL AWAY games, regarding the above analysis, have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points. This statistic is from the 2008-2010 seasons.
Noteworthy trend(s): Carolina HOME games, played against their NFC SOUTH divisional rivals, have gone UNDER the Over and Under total points 20 out of 23 times (with one Over and Under tie, in 2010, against Atlanta) since the 2003 season. The three OVER games came against Tampa Bay (2003 and 2008) and Atlanta in 2009.
Noteworthy trend(s): Carolina HOME games went UNDER the total Over and Under points 6 out of 8 games in 2009 and 5 out of 7 games (with one Over and Under tie) in 2010.
Intangible factor(s): Carolina games have gone OVER the total Over and Under points in 3 out of 4 games this season (1-1 at Home this season). New Orleans games have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points 2 out of 4 games this season (1-1 Away). However, the last eight games played between New Orleans and Carolina (in Carolina) have gone UNDER the Over and Under Total points (This statistic is a perfect 8-0 for the UNDER play since the 2003 season). In addition, the average total points scored in the above comparison statistic is 37 points per contest. MJM likes the "hot" UNDER play to continue as New Orleans and their defensive coordinator (Gregg Williams) tries to "cool off" the play of rookie QB (Cam Newton). Look for the rookie to have a rough game against a well seasoned defensive coordinator and his players. GO with (UNDER) the Over and Under total points in this game.

4. ATLANTA FALCONS

Atlanta is 4-3 and 5-2, straight up and vs. the spread, respectively against Green Bay the last 7 games played in this series. In addition, 4 of the 7 games have been settled by a field goal.
The Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers have played 7 games since the 2001 season. The outright winner in this series has also covered against the spread 6 out of 7 times.
Noteworthy trend(s): Green Bay is 10-2, vs. the spread, after scoring 35 or more points and then playing the next game in the role of a favorite (including one game this season). Green Bay is 0-1 regarding this statistic for the 2011 season (Green Bay won in week 1 by a score of 42-34 and then did not cover in week 2 as favorites against Carolina). Green Bay scored 49 points in a week 4 victory against the Denver Broncos (49-23) and is a favorite against Atlanta in week 5.
Intangible factor(s): The Falcons are out to avenge the 2010 playoff blowout, that came at home and at the hands of the Packers, by a score of 48-21. Atlanta has started off the 2011 season, somewhat disappointing, with a 2-2 record. Green Bay, on the other hand, has continued the 2011 season (4-0 record) where they left off the 2010 season (Super Bowl Champions). This game has all of the makings to be an entertaining and exciting contest. Look for Atlanta to pull off a major upset or at least keep this game close. Atlanta is 20-4, straight up at home, since the 2008 season when Mike Smith (Atlanta's head coach) and Matt Ryan (Atlanta's Quarterback) came on the scene. Take the Falcons plus the 6.5 points against the Packers.

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for some of the "Preferred Plays" for Week 5 of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

San Francisco is 4-1, vs. the spread, at home in the last 5 games played against Tampa Bay (dating to the 1994 season). The other games played in San Francisco were 2003, 2005, 2007 and the 2010 seasons.
Noteworthy trend(s): Tampa Bay is 12-1, vs. the spread, as a ROAD UNDERDOG the last 13 games in this position (last past of 2009 season, all of the 2010 season and the first road game of 2011). The Bucs are 8-5, straight up, in these contests.
Noteworthy trend(s): The UNDER has come in 5 out of the last 6 times the San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have played one another. The two teams have averaged 32 points per game in the last six games played against each other. The game for week 5 of the 2011 season is at an Over and Under total of 41.5 points for the game.None of the six games, in the above comparison, went OVER a total of 40 points in any game.
Intangible factor(s): San Francisco will have revenge on their mind since they were shutout, 21-0, by Tampa Bay last season. This loss was the only recent home loss that they have posted in games played against Tampa Bay. San Francisco has started the 2011 season 4-0 vs. the spread and seems to be playing inspired football with new rookie Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. Tampa Bay will be playing off of a short week (Tampa Bay played a Monday Night contest against Indianapolis) and combine a trip out West that typically disrupts teams that travel from either side of the coast. Look for San Francisco to extract revenge on the Buccaneers and post a victory by at least 7 points.

2. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

San Diego is 4-0-1, vs. the spread, the last 5 games played in Denver against the Broncos. The average margin of victory (AMV) is 20 points for San Diego in the 4 straight up victories against Denver.
Noteworthy trend(s): San Diego is 8-2 straight up and 8-1-1 vs. the spread the last 10 games played against Denver (from the 2006 through 2010 seasons). Six of these San Diego victories have been by at least 20 points per contest. The other two victories were by margins of 8 (2006 away victory) and 5 (2010 away victory) points.
Intangible factor: San Diego is off to a fast start this season (3-1 straight up record) while Denver is 1-3 both straight up and against the spread. Additionally, Denver has a potential team splitting issue on hand with an impending quarterback controversy taking place between starter Kyle Orton and fan favorite Tim Tebow. This potential QB controversy can't sit well with first year head coach John Fox or new team executive John Elway. Look for San Diego to take advantage of some off the field issues and continue their winning ways against Denver. MJM is taking the San Diego Chargers to cover this game by at least a touchdown (and by several TD's if history repeats itself).

3. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Minnesota is 3-1 straight up (1-3 vs. the spread) the last four games played against Arizona. The teams have played four out of the last five seasons (didn't play in the 2007 season). In addition, the games have recently been high scoring contests with an average Over and Under total points scored of 51 points for the last four games. The total points scored in these four contests also have been consistent with totals of 57, 49, 47 and 51 points. The Over and Under for this contest is at 45.5 poiints.
Noteworthy trend(s): Minnesota, in the month of October, is 11-2 as a favorite (6 points or less) playing against a team that has a record of less than .500 (Arizona is 1-3 straight up for the 2011 season). Minnesota is a 3.5 point favorite in this contest against the Cardinals.
Noteworthy trend(s): Arizona is 2-6, vs. the spread, the last eight ROAD UNDERDOG games they played (seven games in 2010). The only game that Arizona covered last year, as a road underdog, was the straight up loss to Minnesota. Arizona lost to Washington earlier this season, straight up, but covered against the Redskins.
Intangible factor: Minnesota has opened the 2011 season with four consecutive losses. Minnesota has not lost four in a row to start a season since 2002. Odds would indicate that Minnesota will not lose five consecutive games...MJM is on board with that thinking. Minnesota is not a typical 0-4 team. In fact, Minnesota easily could be 3-1 (no worse than 2-2) for the 2011 season. The Vikings have built huge halftime leads in the first three games only to see the lead(s) evaporate into losses. Minnesota has one of the best (Adrian Peterson) running backs in the business, a tenacious defense led by sack master (Jared Allen) and will be playing, at home, against a west coast time zone team in the early (1 PM Eastern Standard Time) NFL Sunday slot. What more do you need for MJM's prediction to be anything other than Minnesota? You can take the Vikings in this contest to win easily. Take Minnesota as a favorite to win outright and cover the spread against the Cardinals.

4. CHICAGO BEARS

Chicago has won 10 out of the last 12 games, straight up, played against Detroit (including six games in a row). However, the Bears are only 6-6, vs. the spread, in these 12 contests with the Lions. Additionally, Jay Cutler (Chicago's QB) is a perfect 4-0 vs. Detroit since being traded from Denver to Chicago.
Chicago is 3-0, vs. the spread (2-1 straight up) the last three times they have been an underdog to Detroit. Chicago is a seven point underdog to Detroit in this contest.
Noteworthy trend(s): For the month of October, Chicago is 8-1 vs. the spread, coming off of a straight up win (Chicago defeated Carolina 34-29 last week but did not cover the spread) and playing an opponent coming off of back to back straight up wins (Detroit beat Dallas and Minnesota the previous two weeks).
Intangible factor: Detroit has started off the 2011 season red hot (4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread). However, this will be a contest played between division rivals on Monday Night Football. Chicago has a veteran team and is coming off of a near Super Bowl run from 2010. Detroit might just sneak in win number 5 (WOW...are these the same Lions that went 0-16 in 2008?) but MJM predicts the winning margin to be by 3 to 4 points. Take the Bears plus the points (7 points) against a young, talented team of the future.

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 5-4 winning record versus the spread for week 4 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 4 predictions:

Top Plays were 1-3-0 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 3-1 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 1-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 4 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 4 ( 10/2/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Giving the points); 10 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Giving the points) 3 points at time of publication.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (Getting points); 7 points at time of publication.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (Getting points); 10 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play

Preferred Plays of the Week:

OVER the total points in the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS game; 43.5 points at time of publication.
BUFFALO BILLS (Giving the points); 3 points at time of publication.
DETROIT LIONS (Getting points); 2.5 points at time of publication.
UNDER the total points in the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS / OAKLAND RAIDERS game; 56 points at time of publication.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: New York Jets vs. the Baltimore Ravens. The New York Jets and Baltimore have played against each other four times since 2004 (Baltimore has won all four of these contests straight up). The Jets actually have a poor record (against the spread) vs. Baltimore over the last 8 games. The Steelers are 1-7 overall, vs. the spread, and 1-3 (away) in games played against the Ravens. Both defenses will be stoked to put on a display and show who the premier unit is in the NFL. Baltimore won last year (10-9) as Rex Ryan (New York's head coach) faced the team that he help build when he was Baltimore's defensive coordinator for several seasons. Take the New York Jets (+4.5) and the points in this contest which should be a knock down, drag 'em out type of game. Either team is capable of winning and the winner most likely will come out on top by a field goal. The New York Jets are MJM's "Trend Buster" play of the week.

HOUSTON TEXANS over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh and Houston have only met three times since Houston came into the league as an expansion team (2002). Houston won the contest against Pittsburgh, in their inaugural season, by a score of 24-6. Yes, Cinderella stories do exist in the NFL from time to time. However, Pittsburgh won the two other games played against Houston by scores of 27-7 (2005) and 38-17 (2008). Houston is coming off a tough loss to New Orleans last week and Pittsburgh narrowly beat the winless Indianapolis Colts by a field goal. Houston appears to be a team on the rise and has several explosive offensive weapons who will challenge Pittsburgh's tough but susceptible defense. MJM is going with the Texans in this contest! Take Houston and give the points (3.5) to Pittsburgh.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Philadelphia is 6-1, both straight up and vs. the spread, the last 7 games played against San Francisco. These two teams have met 7 times since the 2002 season. San Francisco's only straight up and vs. the spread win was in 2003 and in Philadelphia. Philadelphia has won twice at home and four times in San Francisco when referencing the above statistic.
Noteworthy trend(s): Philadelphia's average margin of victory (AMV) has been an incredible 17.5 points per game in their six victories against San Francisco (since the 2002 season). Also, both wins in Philadelphia were by an AMV of 26.5 points in the two meetings between the teams (2005 and 2009 seasons).
Noteworthy trend(s): Only one game, out of the seven in the above comparison between the Eagles / 49ers, went below 45 total points. The Over and Under total points for this contest is 43.5 points. See the reference / analysis / importance of this statistic in the "Preferred Plays of the Week" section below.
Intangible factor: Philadelphia opened the 2011 season with a big win against the St. Louis Rams. However, the Eagles have dropped consecutive games. San Francisco has a relatively poor record as a road underdog in recent times. San Francisco is 0-9 as an Underdog (Away), straight up, the last nine times they have been in this situation (2009 and 2010 seasons referenced). This statistic includes a loss to Philadelphia, in 2009, as an away underdog. However, it should be noted that San Francisco has an against the spread (ATS) record of 3-4-2 in these same nine games. The straight up winner, in this series, has also covered (8-0) the last 8 games between the Eagles / 49ers. MJM doesn't envision Philadelphia losing three straight games. San Francisco, and for that matter most west coast teams, has to deal with the time change involved with playing a 1:00 pm game on the east coast. There are several factors that are heavily favoring Philadelphia in this contest. MJM likes the Eagles to "soar" against San Francisco and post a big win.

2. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Minnesota is 11-2 vs. the spread, in the month of October, as a favorite of 6 or less points and playing an opponent with a record of .500 or worse (Kansas City has started off the 2011 season with an 0-3 record through three weeks).
Noteworthy trend(s): Kansas City is 6-9, vs. the spread, the last 15 HOME games in an underdog role (statistic covers games played in the 2008-2010 seasons). Minnesota is a 3 point favorite at the time of publication. Even more noteworthy is that Kansas City is just 3-12 straight up in these home underdog games.
Intangible factor: Both teams have started off the new season in dismal fashion. The Kansas City Chiefs have been out scored by a combined 109-27 in all three 2011 contests. In other words, the Chiefs have lost by an average score of 36-9. Minnesota has blown halftime leads of 17-7, 17-0 and 20-0 in all three losses. The Vikings have played great, in all three games, for a half and then fizzled out in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Minnesota has been out scored by a 67-6 point margin in the three losses (2nd half statistic). The outcome of this game should come down to what team wants the win more and other intangibles. Jared Allen, Minnesota's Pro Bowl defensive end, is returning to Arrowhead Stadium for the first time since he left Kansas City over a contract dispute and other related personal issues. Look for Jared Allen to fire up Minnesota's defense while Adrian Peterson revs up Minnesota's powerful ground game. The Chiefs are simply out matched, talent wise, in most NFL contests. Key season ending injuries to Kansas City's up and coming future playmakers (i.e. Safety-Berry) has put the Chiefs at an additional disadvantage. One of these teams needs to win! MJM likes the experience and offensive talent that the Vikings possess. Look for Minnesota to break out of their road slump (3-9 straight up AWAY record for the past 12 road games) and take the Vikings to hand the Chiefs another loss as a home underdog.

3. MIAMI DOLPHINS

Miami and San Diego have played against each other 9 times since 1994 (5 times since the 2002 season). Miami holds a 7-2 advantage in wins (straight up) over San Diego since 1994. Miami is also 7-2 against the spread (ATS) in these same nine games against San Diego.
Noteworthy trend(s): The Over and Under total points has come in (UNDER) the total points in the last 9 games played in the Miami Dolphins / San Diego Chargers series.
Miami is 4-2 and 5-1, straight up and vs. the spread, respectively, in the 6 games played in San Diego and dating back to the 1994 playoff game between the two teams. Miami was 5-0, against the spread in away games vs. San Diego, prior to losing the 2009 contest.
Noteworthy trend(s): Tony Sparano, the Miami Dolphins head coach, has a solid winning percentage when Miami is playing as an away underdog in games played in week 4 or after of any particular season that he has coached (2008 to present) in Miami. The Dolphins are 12-2 against the spread in the above mentioned scenario (Miami had actually been on a 10-0 streak prior to splitting the last four away games played as an underdog in the 2010 season.
Intangible factor(s): Miami has started the 2011 campaign with three consecutive losses (six in a row if you count the last three losses in 2010). Miami tends to play well against San Diego as is evidenced by the above trend analysis. San Diego comes into this contest a bit banged up on offense (Pro Bowl Tight End Antonio Gates will miss the game due to a foot injury and two other Wide Receivers has also had to deal with more than minor injuries this past week. Look for the Dolphins to keep this game close and possibly pull off an upset??? ) to avoid an 0-4 start). Take Miami and the touchdown (or possibly 7.5 points) that they are receiving from the odds makers in Vegas.

4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indianapolis and Tampa Bay have only played three times, against each other, since the 1997 season. Indianapolis is 2-1 and 3-0, straight up and vs. the spread, respectively in this series. In addition, all three of these games went OVER the total Over and Under points.
Noteworthy trend(s): Indianapolis is 8-2, vs. the spread, as an away underdog the last 10 times in this position (since the 2006 season). The Colts are 6-4 as an away underdog, straight up, over the last 10 games in this role. Note: One of the straight up and ATS losses was to Buffalo, in week 17, of the 2009 season. This loss resulted from Indianapolis resting their starters due to the fact that their quest for a perfect season was ended the prior week and the Colts had no incentive or capability of improving upon their playoff seeding for the game. One could make an argument that the Colts are actually 8-1 and 6-3 in the above analysis since they would not have been an underdog against Buffalo in the 2009 game referenced above.
Intangible factor(s): The Colts come into this contest 0-3 and starting their third string quarterback (Painter). Peyton Manning has all but been ruled out for the 2011 season due to his neck surgery (May 23, 2011) not responding as medically necessary to permit him to play. The Buccaneers are a team that is difficult to figure out at times. One week they look good against a tough divisional opponent and the next they are scrambling to win against an inferior opponent. Tampa Bay is somewhat "consistently inconsistent". MJM envisions a closer game being played out at Raymond James Stadium as a result of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers inconsistent play and the Colts desire to avoid starting the season at 0-4. Take the Colts and the double digit spread that they are getting in this game even though the Buccaneers will probably win a tight contest.

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for some of the "Preferred Plays" for Week 4 of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

OVER 43.5 points in the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS game

Philadelphia and San Francisco have played seven times over the last nine years (the teams did not play against one another in 2004 or 2007) with all games being relatively high scoring affairs. The teams have played three contests in Philadelphia. The Philadelphia Eagles are 2-1 both straight up and vs. the spread, at home, against San Francisco. Additionally, the average total points scored in these three home games is 48 points per contest.
Noteworthy trend(s): Only one game, out of the seven in the above comparison between the Eagles / 49ers, went below 45 total points scored. The Over and Under total points for this contest is 43.5 points. Philadelphia and San Francisco have averaged 54 points per game in the last seven games played against each other.
Intangible factor(s): Philadelphia has several playmakers who can be game changers on any given play. Michael Vick and others lead a high scoring, potent offense. San Francisco will be challenged to keep up with Philadelphia. Look for the 49ers to play from behind and score points at the end of the contest that might not necessarily have an impact on the outcome of the game (see Top Plays analysis above for additional details) other than the OVER and Under total points scored. MJM envisions this game being "OVER" before it gets started!

2. BUFFALO BILLS

The last 4 games played between Buffalo and Cincinnati have gone OVER the total Over and Under points.
Buffalo is 6-0 straight up the last six games they have played against Cincinnati (covers 2002 to present). The average margin of victory (AMV), for Buffalo in these six games, is over 13 points per game. In fact, Buffalo has beaten Cincinnati by a minimum of 10 points in 5 of the 6 games played. Buffalo won the other contest by six points (the current line is Buffalo favored by 3 points).
Intangible factor: Buffalo is off to a great start this season (3-0) and is coming off of a major upset victory against New England last week. The game against Cincinnati seems all too easy to predict Buffalo given the past trend and current play of both teams. Is this a setup? Will Buffalo experience a letdown after last week's emotional victory over their dreaded division rival? MJM will take a chance on the Buffalo Bills continuing their dominant play against Cincinnati.

3. DETROIT LIONS

Detroit is 5-1 against the spread the last six games played after having played the Minnesota Vikings. Detroit beat Minnesota, last week, to go 3-0 on the 2011 season.
Noteworthy trend(s): Detroit is 6-3 against the spread as an away underdog the last nine games (including 1-0 this season). The Lions recently broke an 0-26 road losing streak with their 2010 road victory (against Tampa Bay). The Lions are actually on a mini win streak as they have won four away games in a row (including two road victories in 2011).
Intangible factor: Detroit seems to be a young team on the rise. Dallas is in a state of turmoil and might be on the decline. Take a chance on Detroit to win another road game. Who would have ever of thought that Detroit could have turned it around so quickly (after going 0-16 in the 2008 season). Look for the Lions to roar loudly, against Dallas, and send a message to the rest of the NFL!

4. UNDER 56 points in the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS / OAKLAND RAIDERS game

New England and Oakland have played four times in the last 10 years. The four games had an average total points scored of 50.25 points per game.
Look for Oakland to run the ball to keep Tom Brady and the high flying New England Patriot offense off the field. Similarly, New England might try to adopt the "run first, throw second" philosophy as a measure to keep Oakland off balance. New England was effective in throwing the ball all over the field in last week's loss to Buffalo.
It is safe to say that many players will be "predicting' this game to be a barn burner. MJM likes the UNDER in this contest!

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 4-1-1 winning record versus the spread for week 3 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 3 predictions:

Top Plays were 2-0-1 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 2-1 vs. the spread.
“Free Pick” was 1-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 3 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 3 ( 9/25/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

CLEVELAND BROWNS (Getting points); 1.5 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
OVER the total points in the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS / BUFFALO BILLS game; 54.5 points at time of publication.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Getting points); 3 points at time of publication.
No Additional Top Play
No Additional Top Play

Preferred Plays of the Week:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Giving the points); 7.5 points at time of publication.
OVER the total points in the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS / HOUSTON TEXANS game; 51 points at time of publication.
DENVER BRONCOS (Getting points); 6.5 points at time of publication.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: Baltimore Ravens (-6 points) vs. the St. Louis Rams. Baltimore and St. Louis have played against each other four times since 1996. Baltimore is 1-3, vs. the spread, against the Rams (2-2 straight up) in the four games previously referenced. Also, St. Louis is 9-1 as an underdog, vs. the spread, and playing an opponent coming off of a straight up loss and having scored less than 20 points (for games played in the month of September). Baltimore, in week 2, lost to Tennessee by the score of 26-13 and qualifies for the above mentioned statistic that favors the St. Louis Rams. Baltimore is too good of a team to let the Rams even be competitive in this game (especially after last week's humiliating loss). The Rams may or may not have their stud RB (Steven Jackson) to play in this contest. MJM does not feel that he will be a major contributing factor (whether he's healthy or not). Baltimore's defense is a premier unit and they will prove it against St. Louis.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS over the Dallas Cowboys. Washington has started the new season off to a good start (2-0 record) with back to back home victories. The Cowboys were fortunate to avoid another 0-2 start by coming back in week 2 to win in OT. Dallas was an awful 1-5, vs. the spread in 2010, as a home favorite. The Cowboys (-5) are favorites in this division rivalry game. Washington is 7-1, vs. the spread, in the role of an underdog of 3 or more points after having won back to back games (straight up) over the past eight game situations. Additionally, Washington has covered the last 4 games played in Dallas (only 1-3 straight up) and has kept these four games relatively close. The winning margin in the last four Dallas / Washington games, played in Arlington, has been by 5, 2, 1 and 3 points. 9 out of the last 14 games played between these two clubs have had game winning margins of 5 or less points. The Cowboys have several key players (i.e. Tony Romo with a punctured lung / fractured rib) that are not at their 100% best. Take Washington to keep the game close, as has been the recent trend, and possibly even upset the Cowboys at home.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Cleveland is 4-0 vs. the spread (3-1 straight up) against Miami in games played since 2004. Also, 3 of the 4 games went UNDER the total Over and Under points with total points scored being 17, 22 and 23 points in these three under games.
Noteworthy trend(s): Cleveland is 5-1 both straight up and vs. the spread, against AFC East teams at HOME, since the 2005 season (including 2-0 against Miami).
Noteworthy trend(s): It is a well known and documented fact that Cleveland has a terrible home and season opener record for seasons 2001-2010. The Cleveland Browns actually opened at home, in the season opener, from 2001-2009 (Cleveland played at Tampa Bay in the 2010 season opener) and went 1-8 straight up in these home openers. The only Browns victory (2004) came against Baltimore. Cleveland lost to Tampa Bay in the 2010 season opener (away) and in the Browns first home game of 2010 played against Kansas City. So, one could surmise that playing the Browns at home might be a poor play early in the season...not necessarily the case if you review what the Browns have accomplished in the SECOND home game of the season. Cleveland has gone 6-4 straight up, over the past 10 years, in the second home game played. More importantly, Cleveland is a very impressive 9-1, vs. the spread, in these same games as mentioned above.
Intangible factor: Miami actually is a very good road underdog. The Dolphins are an impressive 14-6, vs. the spread, as a road dog, since the 2008 season. However, there are a couple of trends that don't favor the Dolphins (occur in the month of September). Miami is 1-8 vs. non divisional opponents the last 9 games and Miami is also 1-7 as an underdog of less than 7 points. Both of these are against the spread statistics. Miami's defense is somewhat suspect and has given up an average of 30 points the first two games of the season. Although Colt McCoy won't be confused with Tom Brady, he is more than capable of leading the Browns to victory against the Dolphins. McCoy will lean heavily on the Browns best offensive weapons (Peyton Hillis and a strong running game) and manage the game via an efficient West Coast passing scheme. Look for the Cleveland Browns to win by at least a field goal. (NOTE: The majority of this analysis was written prior to the announcement that Peyton Hillis was going to be sidelined and inactive for the game as a result of strep throat). The Hillis status has actually moved the Browns to an underdog role in this contest. Take Cleveland in this contest!

2. OVER 54.5 points in the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS / BUFFALO BILLS game

7 out of the last 10 games, played between the two clubs and in Buffalo, have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points. Overall, 14 of the last 20 overall games between the Patriots and the Bills have gone UNDER the total points since the 2001 season. New England and Buffalo have only totaled more than the current Over and Under total (53.5 points) TWICE in the last 20 games played between the two.
Noteworthy trend(s): Games involving New England have gone OVER the total Over and Under points in 16 of the last 19 contests (including 2-0 for the first two weeks of the 2011 season). Of the 3 UNDER games, that involved the Patriots, the UNDER came in against Baltimore, at San Diego and lastly AT BUFFALO (all last season).
Intangible factor: Both teams have started off the new season on an offensive roll which has helped propel the Patriots and Bills to reach a record of 2-0. The Patriots are averaging 36.5 points scored a game (AND that only puts New England in second place as far as scoring points per game). The team leading the league in scoring, averaging 39.5 points per game, is Buffalo. Yes, Buffalo is actually out scoring the Patriots by 3 points per game. However, it should be mentioned that the two victories came against Kansas City and Oakland (teams not known for their defensive prowess). Tom Brady carved up the Miami secondary for over 500 yards in Week 1. Nothing is evident that would lead MJM to think that Brady and Co. can't be equally productive and put up a similar amount of points in this contest against Buffalo. Also, it would be reasonable to think that Buffalo can score on a somewhat injured and slow New England defense. Let the fireworks begin! Take the OVER in the Over and Under total points in the game. Note, the opening line has moved from 52 points to 54.5 points (O/U) which is a decent movement and indicates that other players see this to be a potentially high scoring contest.

3. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Minnesota has won 13 consecutive games (outright) vs. Detroit at Home. The last time the Vikings lost to Detroit, in Minneapolis, was 1997 by the score of 14-13. However, Minnesota is only 6-5-2, against the spread, over this same 13 game stretch.
The Over and Under total points has come in (UNDER) the total points in 8 of the last 13 games in this series, played in Minnesota, and 5-5 for the last 10 games.
Minnesota is only 1-6, as a home underdog, in the last 7 contests, in this role, dating back to the 2007 season.
Noteworthy trend(s): Minnesota is 11-1 vs. the spread coming off of back to back straight up losses and playing an opponent with a record of .500 or better (Detroit is 3-0).
Intangible factor(s): Detroit has quietly put together a mini winning streak of 6 consecutive games (the last 4 of the 2010 season and the first two games this season). The Lions are showing tremendous improvement on both sides of the ball and have some impressive young talent (QB Matthew Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson, DT N. Suh and others) who have risen to the challenge and produced very solid numbers. However, it is difficult to imagine that the Vikings could go to an 0-3 record with a loss to the Lions at home. Look for Donovan McNabb to work through his early season struggles and have a decent outing. The Vikings also would be silly not to give Adrian Peterson a steady dose of running the football. MJM likes the Vikings in the role of a home underdog to win outright in this contest.

4. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for some of the "Preferred Plays" for Week 3 of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

New England is 20-1, straight up, in the last 21 games played against Buffalo. This statistic dates back to the second game of the 2000 season match up between the two clubs. The only straight up loss, suffered by New England in this comparison, was opening day of the 2003 season when the Patriots lost 31-0 (in Buffalo).
New England has won seven consecutive games played in Buffalo (since their 2003 loss to the Bills). New England has dominated the scoring in these seven away wins. The Patriots average margin of victory (AMV) was 23 points per contest against the Bills. In fact, New England has been a perfect 7-0 both straight up and vs. the spread the last seven games played in Buffalo. Decisive wins has been a recent trend by New England when playing against Buffalo. New England has defeated Buffalo, in Buffalo, by margins of 14, 28, 22, 46, 13, 7 and 31 points in this seven game comparison (for an AMV of 23 points per game).
Noteworthy trend(s): New England is 15-6 vs. the spread against Buffalo in the past 21 games played between the two teams.
Intangible factor(s): Buffalo is 1-6, vs. the spread, when coming off of back to back straight up wins (as they have started the 2011 season at 2-0) and playing against an opponent coming off of a straight up win. New England typically puts to rest who "rules the AFC East" very early in the season. MJM sees a similar result in the outcome of this contest played, in Buffalo, between the Bills and the Patriots as has taken place in recent games. Look for the Pats to win the game by a double digit margin and cover the 7.5 point spread.

2. OVER 51 points in the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS / HOUSTON TEXANS game

During the 2010 season, games involving Houston went OVER the total Over and Under points 11 out of 16 times.
Houston AWAY games went OVER the total Over and Under points 6 out of 8 times last season. Five of the away games that went over had total combined points scored of 57, 55, 55, 57 and 58 points. Three other away games had total combined points scored of 47, 48 and 47 points (with one of these contests going OVER the total O/U points).
Intangible factor: New Orleans and Houston both have explosive and exciting high powered offenses. Matt Schaub is rounding into form as a top tier QB and Andre "The Beast" Johnson has few peers at WR. Ben Tate, Houston's top draft pick in 2010, is filling in well at RB for the injured Arian Foster. Drew Brees is one of the best QB's currently playing the game. Both head coaches are offensive minded and willing to take chances at the right opportunity. This contest should have plenty of points put up on the Superdome scoreboard. MJM is going with the OVER the Over and Under total points in this game!

3. DENVER BRONCOS

Denver is 3-0 both straight up and vs. the spread the last three games played against Tennessee. The teams played in 2004, 2007 and 2010. All three games went OVER the total Over and Under points. The Average Margin of Victory (AMV) in the three wins for Denver against Tennessee was approximately 14 points (winning margins in the games were 21, 14 and 6 points).
Noteworthy trend(s): Tennessee is 3-6, vs. the spread, in the role of a home favorite the last 9 games the Titans played at LP Field (Nashville). Also, Tennessee is only 1-4, vs. the spread, when favored by 6 or more points (over the past five times given this situation).
Intangible factor: Tennessee could be caught up in the emotions of their big, upset victory against Baltimore in week 2 (26-13). The Titans are in a perfect situation to be upset themselves if they take Denver too lightly in this contest. Denver has played well against Tennessee the last three times they met (see above). In addition, Tennessee is only 2-5, straight up, and 1-6, vs. the spread, the last seven seasons when determining the outcome of their second home game of the season. Tennessee's offense (including Matt Hasselbeck, Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt) has yet to demonstrate that they are a well oiled unit. Take Denver in this contest (to at least cover the line).

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Don't forget to sign up for other free picks on our Home page or Contact Us page. Good luck to all of our clients and to those interested in using our service in the future.

Please register for your additional "free pick" NOW!!

View 2010 Predicitons | View 2009 Predictions

To view this week's predictions, log in or click here to purchase one of our packages.

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 4-3 winning record versus the spread for week 2 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 2 predictions:

Top Plays were 2-2 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 2-1 vs. the spread (all underdog plays).
“Free Pick” was 1-0 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 2 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 2 ( 9/18/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Giving the points); 14.5 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (Giving the points); 10.5 points at time of publication.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (Getting points); 7 points at time of publication.
ATLANTA FALCONS (Getting points); 2.5 points at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (Giving the points); 5 points at time of publication.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (Getting points); 4 points at time of publication.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (Giving the points); 6.5 points at time of publication.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: Cleveland Browns (-1.5 points) vs. the Indianapolis Colts. Cleveland has played Indianapolis 4 times since 2002. The Browns are 0-4 straight up and 1-2-1, vs. the spread, against the Colts over this stretch. MJM is predicting a victory for Cleveland as they emphasize a "ground and pound" philosophy against a small but quick Indy defense. Look for PEYTON Hillis (Madden 12's cover boy) to have a solid game and at least a score. Take the Browns in this contest against a PEYTON (Manning) LESS Colts team with the loser of this game being in contention for a possible successor (Andrew Luck) QB next season. What team will adopt the mantra "Suck for Luck"?

HOUSTON TEXANS over the Miami Dolphins. The Texans have won 5 games in a row, straight up, vs. the Dolphins (3-2 vs. the spread). Miami was mauled by New England to start off the season last week. Houston had a "preseason type exhibition" game against Indianapolis as the Texans completely dominated a Colts team clearly in need of a healthy Peyton Manning (and more). Houston very well could on the verge of making their very first playoff appearance since they came into the league (2002) and is primed to take it to the Dolphins. Look for Houston's offensive weapons, including QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson, to reveal and exploit some of the cracks in Miami's secondary (a unit that yielded over 500 yards passing to Tom Brady in week 1) in what should be an easy win for Houston. Take the Texans and watch for a renewed attitude on defense compliments of one Wade Phillips (new defensive coordinator for the Houston Texans).

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Noteworthy trend(s): Seattle is a very, very poor road team having gone 4-17 vs. the spread the last 21 away games (2 wins were registered against the St. Louis Rams and the other two occurred in 2010 against Chicago and Arizona). Additionally, the Seahawks are an equally pathetic ROAD UNDERDOG. Seattle is a horrible, let me repeat, HORRIBLE 2-16 vs. the spread (and straight up) as a ROAD UNDERDOG the last 18 away games played.
Noteworthy trend(s): The average margin of LOSS (AML) for the Seattle Seahawks, in the last 16 away games played as a underdog, is just shy of 20 points per game (including the away playoff loss to Chicago in 2010).
Intangible factor: Pittsburgh's resounding whipping at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens, last week by a score of 35-7, was the worst losing deficit incurred by a Steelers team over the last ten years. Ironically, the next worst margin of defeat was a 27-0 drubbing, in 2006, and also to the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers came back from the 2006 defeat to take out their frustrations on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and posted a 20-3 victory. MJM sees a very similar fate for the 2011 Seattle Seahawks in this contest. Look for the Steelers defense to come out fired up, full of fury and plenty able to shut down a Seattle team that truly plays pathetically on the road. Big Ben and the rest of the Steelers offense will find their groove and put up several scores against a very average Seattle defense. Enough said...Pittsburgh will dominate the Seattle Seahawks from the beginning of the game to end and redeem themselves regarding last weeks embarrassing debacle.

2. GREEN BAY PACKERS

Green Bay is 4-2, both straight up and vs. the spread, the past 6 games played against Carolina (covers the last 10 year time period).
Green Bay has not played in Carolina since the 2005 season. However, Green Bay is 2-1 straight up (3-0 vs. the spread) against Carolina from 2001 to 2005 (games played in Carolina).
Green Bay's average margin of victory (AMV) in the 4 straight up victories, against Carolina, is 12 points. However, the AMG increases to 15 points per game if only factoring the 3 GB victories that also covered the line. MJM sees the Packers winning this contest and covering as the "odds" are that the Packers win and cover against the Panthers.
Noteworthy trend(s): Green Bay is 6-3 vs. the spread, in contests played since 2007, as a double digit (10 or more point) favorite. Also, Green Bay is a perfect 9-0 straight up in these same games. In addition, 8 of the 9 straight up victories were by at least a touchdown which leads one to think that teasing the Packers down to (-5) would be a good play.
Intangible factor: The Carolina Panthers played well last week, against the Arizona Cardinals, but lost with their new "wunderkind" QB and overall number 1 draft pick (Cam Newton). Newton threw for a new rookie record (400 plus yards) in the 28-21 loss to the Cardinals. Green Bay experienced no "Super Bowl winner" hangover effects with their home opener victory over the New Orleans Saints. Look for the Pack to give Carolina's rookie QB nothing less than a frustrating afternoon. Take the Packers in what could potentially be a lopsided game.

3. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

San Diego is 3-5 and 4-4, straight up and vs. the spread, respectively, the past 8 games played against New England (stat covers the past 10 year time period). However, San Diego is 1-3 straight up (2-2 vs. the spread) in games played at New England.
The straight up winner in the San Diego / New England contest has covered 7 out of 8 times (games played since 2001).
Noteworthy trend(s): San Diego has been an underdog, of 7 or more points, just 9 times since the 2002 season (and not since the 2007 season). The Chargers are 7-1-1 vs. the spread in these games. However, San Diego is just 3-6 straight up in the above mentioned contests as an underdog. Ironically, San Diego was a 14 point underdog, against New England in a 2007 playoff game, the last time in this type of role as an underdog. San Diego covered in that contest but lost, straight up, in the 2007 playoff game in New England.
San Diego is 6-1, vs. the spread, in the last 7 regular season games as a road underdog. San Diego is 5-2 straight up in these games with the two losses coming against Pittsburgh.
Intangible factor(s): Tom Brady wins football games (especially at Home). Brady has an NFL record 28 consecutive regular season (Home) wins on the line against San Diego. The Chargers typically start off their NFL seasons slowly and are a very pedestrian 8-12 (straight up) in their first five games of seasons 2007-2010. San Diego has gone 2-3 (straight up) to start each of the last 4 seasons. Look for an exciting game played between New England / San Diego with potential playoff implications (playoff seedings) at stake. MJM sees a tight game with either team winning by a field goal. Take the Chargers and the 7 points that they are getting.

4. ATLANTA FALCONS

Atlanta is 1-7 straight up and 2-6 vs. the spread in the last 8 games played against Philadelphia. Two of these were playoff losses in games played in Philadelphia (2004 and 2006). The latter comment may have significance come playoff time later this season. The single straight up victory for Atlanta was a home contest, against Philadelphia, in 2005.
The average margin of loss (AML) for the Falcons, in the 7 losses to the Eagles, is slightly more than 14 points per game. No loss was by less than 7 points. Atlanta last played Philadelphia, at home, in 2009. The score was a lopsided, blowout (34-7) victory for the Eagles.
Intangible factor(s): Atlanta is 7-0 coming off of an against the spread (ATS) loss vs. a non division opponent (month of September). Also, the Falcons are 7-0, as an underdog, coming off of a straight up loss. Atlanta is 4-0 in home games (both straight up and ATS) prior to playing Tampa Bay (since 2008 season). Obviously, there are several factors to consider playing Atlanta in this contest (revenge being one). Michael Vick returns to Atlanta for the first time since his ordeal. Atlanta's new QB (Matt Ryan) is nearly invincible at home (20-2 winning record) since replacing Vick as Atlanta's QB. Look for "Mattie Ice" to put the freeze on the Eagles and Atlanta's defense making Vick feel like he is "out in the cold" in this key game played between two highly talented and potential playoff qualifying teams. Take Atlanta in a "mild" upset and consider the Falcons to be a very worthy candidate to be considered for another MJM "Trend Buster" play(s) of the week.

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for some of the "Preferred Plays" for Week 2 of the 2011 NFL season. These plays are close to MJM's "Top Plays" but either lack relevant statistical data, trends and / or current intangible factors which prevent these selections from being top tier picks.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

New Orleans is 2-4 straight up, vs. Chicago, the last 6 meetings with the Bears. The Saints are 2-2-2 vs. the spread in these games.
New Orleans has a good record of winning the following game after a loss (The Saints are 11-3 both straight up and vs. the spread the last three seasons in this category).
New Orleans is 10-1, at Home, vs. a non divisional conference opponent (Key: opponent has a winning record of at least .667 percent).
Noteworthy trend(s): Chicago is 2-11 vs. the spread if the Over / Under line is 45 points or more. The current O/U line in the New Orleans / Chicago game is 48 points at time of publication (line has only fluctuated slightly since opening at 46.5 points in Vegas). Also, the Bears are 2-11 as an underdog when playing a non divisional opponent coming off of a straight up loss (under Coach Lovie Smith).
Intangible factor(s): Drew Brees and company typically play well at home (17-7 straight up the last three seasons) and are out to prove that their loss to the Green Bay Packers, last week, was only a minor setback. Sean Payton is 4-1 in home openers as New Orleans head coach. MJM does not see the Saints dropping to 0-2 to start off the 2011 NFL season. In fact, look for Chicago to have somewhat of a letdown after their big win, at home, against the Atlanta Falcons. Additionally, Brian Urlacher, Chicago's outstanding Pro Bowl middle linebacker, will be playing with a heavy heart due to the loss of his mother. Emotions notwithstanding, take the Saints to win by a double digit margin.

2. OAKLAND RAIDERS

Oakland is 3-1 both straight up and vs. the spread the last 4 games against Buffalo (including 2-0 vs. the spread in away games played in Buffalo).
Buffalo is 4-6 in Home openers the last 10 seasons. In addition, Buffalo is 1-4 as a non divisional conference favorite of 4 or more points.
Intangible factor: Buffalo exploded all over Kansas City last week and won this game by a score of 41-7. Teams that score that many points in a game or win by a large, lopsided total tend to under perform in the following game. Also, Buffalo might be overlooking Oakland as the Bills have a tough week 3 divisional match up (New England in Buffalo). Buffalo is a young team that needs to learn how to win (The Bills are a combined 11-22 straight up the last two seasons and week 1 of the 2011 NFL season). Buffalo is 5-11 at home during this time period. The Oakland Raiders have a good nucleus of young, talented players on both sides of the ball. Darren McFadden will be a force to handle as Oakland's lead running back is finally coming into form and Buffalo's run defense is horrible. Look for Oakland to win this ball game outright or at least to keep it close and cover the line.

3. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore is generally considered to be a good team that covers against the spread (32-21-2 vs. the spread since 2008). Baltimore was also a very respectful 6-3-1 (in 2010 away games) vs. the spread.
The UNDER play has come in 7 out of the last 8 games played between the Ravens / Titans (the one OVER was Baltimore's 2006 win).
Baltimore is 4-0 coming off of a double digit against the spread (ATS) win and playing a non divisional opponent coming of of a straight up loss.
Noteworthy trend(s): Baltimore is 7-1 coming off of a double digit (ATS) win versus an opponent coming off of an ATS loss (Jacksonville beat the favored Tennessee Titans, in Week 1, by a score of 16-14). Of course, Baltimore destroyed the Pittsburgh Steelers last week in a game that was OVER (35-7) before it began.
Noteworthy trend(s): Baltimore has struggled, the past two seasons, to cover against the spread the game after winning the previous week by 14 or more points. In fact, Baltimore is 2-8, straight up, in 10 games played in 2009 / 2010 that involved Baltimore winning one week, by a minimum 14 points, and then losing the following week. Additionally, the Ravens are a terrible 1-7-2, vs. the spread, in the type of games mentioned in this trend summary. The only victory was in a home contest against Chicago in 2009.
Intangible factor: Baltimore is 1-4, vs. Tennessee, the last 5 games played in this series (ATS). Additionally, Baltimore appears to be heading for an off game (see above noteworthy trends) and potential letdown after the Ravens emotional and stunning domination against their bitter divisional rivals and Super Bowl runners up (Steelers) from last season. However, MJM also factors in sub par play from the Titans key offensive player (running back Chris Johnson) as being integral in this selection. Tennessee has a new quarterback under center (Matt Hasselbeck) who could be a valuable addition to provide veteran experience to a somewhat young team. Bottom line, there are several statistical variables that can be referenced in this game to support a decision to take either team. MJM likes the emotional edge in this match up and this favors the Baltimore Ravens. Take the Ravens as 6.5 point favorites against a team (Tennessee) that has yet to gel.

4. NO ADDITIONAL PREFERRED PLAY

Don't forget to sign up for other free picks on our Home page or Contact Us page. Good luck to all of our clients and to those interested in using our service in the future.

Please register for your additional "free pick" NOW!!

View 2010 Predicitons | View 2009 Predictions

To view this week's predictions, log in or click here to purchase one of our packages.

The "Top and Preferred Plays" selections helped propel MJM to an overall 5-3 winning record versus the spread for week 1 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 1 predictions:

Top Plays were 2-2 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes).
Preferred Plays were 3-1 vs. the spread (all winning picks were underdog plays).
“Free Picks” were 1-1 outright and vs. the spread.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 1 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 1 ( 9/11/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

HOUSTON TEXANS (Giving the points); 9 points as documented by The Sports Monitor and at time of publication.
UNDER the total points in the HOUSTON TEXANS / INDIANAPOLIS COLTS game; 44 points at time of publication.
ATLANTA FALCONS (Giving the points); 1.5 points at time of publication.
ST. LOUIS RAMS (Getting points); 4 points at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (Getting points); 2 points at time of publication.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Getting points); 8.5 points at time of publication.
N.Y. JETS (Giving the points); 6 points at time of publication.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (Getting points); 3 points at time of publication.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: (UNDER 44 points) in the Houston Texans / Indianapolis Colts game. MJM is predicting a lower scoring contest than most other prognosticator's. Take the UNDER in this contest. Please reference details in the Analysis (Top Plays) section.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS over the Green Bay Packers. This is a great way to start the 2011 NFL season with having the last two Super Bowl champions meet in week 1. The Saints are 3-1 straight up and vs. the spread the last 4 meetings against the Packers. Also, the last four games have gone OVER the Over and Under total points, between these two playoff type teams, with total points scored exceeding 62 points on average. Look for a shoot out and exciting contest. MJM is going with New Orleans, getting 4.5 points, to at least cover in what should be a closely fought game.

MJM’s additional “Free Pick” of the week: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-5.5) points versus the Seattle Seahawks. San Francisco is 4-2 vs. the spread the last 6 Home games played against Seattle. MJM has documented, on several occasions and reflected in last year game analysis commentary, the struggles that the Seattle Seahawks have playing on the road. Go with the 49ers to win big!

Please visit us at www.mjmsportsline.com to join the elite ranks of other winning, NFL sports minded fans who have decided to “Parlay our Passion into their Success”.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

HOUSTON TEXANS

Houston is 2-16 straight up vs. the Colts, since their inaugural NFL season in 2002, but (10–8) vs. the spread for the same games.
Houston is 4-1 vs. the spread and 2-3 straight up, at Home, the last 5 games played versus Indianapolis. Houston's only 2 wins in this series both came at home.
Intangible factor: Houston will be playing without their stud running back (Arian Foster) who is out with a hamstring problem. However, this important and newsworthy item is far surpassed by the fact that the Colts will be playing without quarterback Peyton Manning who is out with a neck problem. Indianapolis, without their top player for the last 13 years, looks to be a sitting duck this week. The line (Houston favored by 9 points) should not be a big consideration. The team that comes out on top should win this contest by a double digit margin (MJM doesn't see Indy being the victorious team). Kerry Collins won't be the solution for the Colts. Indy's run defense is suspect and the Texans backup running backs should be able to play well against them.

2. UNDER 44 total points in the HOUSTON TEXANS / INDIANAPOLIS COLTS game

12 of the 18 games played between these two teams have gone OVER the total Over / Under line (including 11 of the last 14 games).
6 out of 9 games played in Houston, between the Texans and Colts, have gone Over the total points (including the last 6 straight).
Intangible factor: The MJM Sportsline "TREND BUSTER play of the week" happens to be taking the (Under 44 total points) in this game. Both teams will be playing without a top offensive weapon which will hamper both offensive game plans. In addition, both teams depend upon timing routes that leads to success in their passing games. The extended lockout and other factors should lend to a sloppy or sluggish overall performance. The result should be a lower scoring contest than what we have been accustomed to in the past between these two offensive minded teams. This is a good time to go opposite of the recent trends and take into consideration the significant injuries that affect both teams for this week 1 match up of division rivals.

3. ATLANTA FALCONS

Atlanta is 3-7, straight up, and 4-6, vs. the spread, in away opening games the past 10 years.
Atlanta is 1-6, vs. the spread, the last 7 away games to start the season (2004-2010).
Atlanta is 2-3 both straight up and vs. the spread against Chicago the past 5 meetings. However, the two victories have come recently with Matt Ryan at quarterback. Michael Vick was the quarterback of the Falcons when they lost three consecutive to the Bears.
Noteworthy trend(s): The past five games between the Falcons and Bears have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points. The Falcons are 5-0, vs. the spread, as away favorites the last 5 times in this position (all in 2010).
MJM likes Atlanta to go against the recent trend of losing away opening games. Matt Ryan has his full compliment of offensive weapons and a new high draft pick (wide receiver Julio Jones) that was added to the fold. Both teams are coming off of disappointing season ending playoff losses to the Green Bay Packers and should be ready to mount another playoff push. However, the Falcons appear to have the more all around complete team at this time. Also, the Bears will need to prove that they can win with Jay Cutler at quarterback and not experience any negative setbacks as the result of losing the NFC Conference championship game, at home, to end last season.

4. ST. LOUIS RAMS

St. Louis is 3-3 and 1-4-1, straight up and vs. the spread, respectively the last six meetings between the two clubs.
St. Louis is 1-8-1, vs. the spread, the last 10 season openers. MJM views the Rams as a viable and potential "Trend Buster play of the week". Ironically, the Rams played the Eagles twice during this time period and finished 0-1-1 vs. the spread n previous home openers.
Intangible Factor: St. Louis typically plays good, fundamental and solid defense at home. Philadelphia has a Sunday night game with the Atlanta Falcons in week 2. MJM thinks that the Eagles might be overlooking an up and coming team and looking past the Rams to the marquee match up with Michael Vick playing against his former team in week 2.

5. NO ADDITIONAL TOP PLAY

Limited write ups and related analysis will be presented for the "Preferred Plays" for Week 1 of the 2011 NFL season. May we all take individual and appropriate time to reflect on how we have been affected by the tragic "9/11" events from 10 years ago. May we all take the time to focus on how we can change to make sure that we are not affected by terrorism of this magnitude again!

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

New York is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 vs. the spread in away games, played in Washington, the last five seasons.
New York Giants are 39-30 vs. the spread the last three seasons (including 4-1 in playoff games).
New York is 12-5 vs. the spread, since 2007, as road favorites (they are 2 point favorites at time of publication).
Intangible factor(s): Washington has won 6 of the last 7 season opening (home) games, straight up, over the last 10 years. The Redskins look to capitalize on significant emotional factors relating to the attack on the Pentagon during the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Redskins will be pumped and primed to upset the Giants in an NFC East divisional showdown. Additionally, New York is facing a difficult situation with all of the mounting and recent injuries to their team (especially key losses on defense). Hail to the Redskins!

2. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Minnesota and San Diego have met only twice in the last 10 seasons. Each team won straight up and vs. the spread at home.
San Diego typically starts off their season on a slow note. San Diego has gone 2-3 straight up, or worse, in 6 of the past 8 seasons and four in a row (2007-2010).
Intangible factor: Minnesota still has a good core group of players on both sides of the ball. Adrian Peterson is arguably one of the top running backs (or the best) in the NFL. Donovan McNabb brings his game to Minnesota in hopes of providing the jump start that Brett Favre provided in the Vikings magical 2009 season when the Vikes made it to the NFC Conference Championship game. Veteran players such as Peterson, McNabb, Jared Allen and others find ways to win and / or play competitively. The Vikings are 8.5 point underdogs, at the time of publication, and should be able to withstand the passing attack brought on by San Diego and their quarterback (Philip Rivers) as well as their running game (featuring RB's Mathews / Tolbert). San Diego should be able to pull out a victory, despite their early season woes, but MJM would be surprised to see a game that was not close and competitive between two veteran teams. Take the Vikings with 8.5 points being too much for San Diego to cover.

3. NEW YORK JETS

New York is 22-16 over the last two seasons, including playoff games, vs. the spread.
New York typically does not play well (vs. the spread) against NFC teams. New York finished 1-3, vs. the spread, for three separate seasons over the past six seasons (2005-2010).
New York has played Dallas only twice in the last 10 seasons. Dallas won both games outright and vs. the spread.
Intangible factor: Emotions will ride "sky high" as New York remembers the tragic events that affected and permanently changed the city known as the Big Apple. Rex and Rob Ryan will square off in front of their dad (Buddy Ryan - mastermind of one of the best NFL defenses ever compiled). The Ryan's will throw everything conceivable at the other teams offenses. MJM sees a hard fought victory for the Jets. Dallas is a team that is unpredictable at this point. Take the Jets and give the 6 points to Dallas.

4. OAKLAND RAIDERS

Oakland is 8-2, vs. the spread, the last 10 games played against Denver. However, the Raiders were only 5-5 straight up in these games.
Oakland is 5-0 vs. the spread, 3-0 the last three games outright, in the past 5 games played in Denver.
The OVER play has come through 6 of the last 8 games played in this series. Look for another OVER to take place as Orton should be able to put up points against a somewhat suspect Oakland secondary and Darren McFadden coming into his own as a featured top running back.

Don't forget to sign up for other free picks on our Home page or Contact Us page. Good luck to all of our clients and to those interested in using our service in the future.

Please register for your additional "free pick" NOW!!

View 2010 Predicitons | View 2009 Predictions

To view this week's predictions, log in or click here to purchase one of our packages.

Call Today! (877) 642.9467

Predictions

Latest NFL News

Main Links

Get Updated