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AFC and NFC Championship Game Playoff Weekend (Sunday - 01/23/11 ) - MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Giving the points); 3.5 point favorite at time of publication.
CHICAGO BEARS (Getting the points); 3.5 point underdog at time of publication.
UNDER (38.5 total points) in the PITTSBURGH STEELERS / NEW YORK JETS game at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

UNDER (43.5 total points) in the CHICAGO BEARS / GREEN BAY PACKERS game at time of publication.

The MJM Sportsline Top and Preferred plays represent our most confident picks for a particular week. MJM submits both the top and preferred picks to an independent monitoring service (The Sports Monitor of Oklahoma) for documentation and validation purposes. However, ONLY the top rated plays are utilized to calculate MJM Sportsline’s overall ranking versus other sports prognosticating services (except during the NFL Playoffs in which Preferred Plays may be included in overall rankings).

ANALYSIS (Top Plays and Preferred Plays combined):

PITTSBURGH STEELERS and UNDER the Over / Under total points.

Pittsburgh was 10-6 vs. the spread this season (5-3 vs. the spread at HOME).
Pittsburgh games went 9-7 for the UNDER play regarding the Over / Under total points for the regular season (The UNDER play came in 5 out of 8 times in Pittsburgh HOME games).
Pittsburgh was 3-0, straight up, and 2-1 vs. the spread the last three HOME games played against the New York Jets, prior to the 2010 regular season (Week 15) 22-17 loss to the New York Jets. Additionally, all four of these games were relatively low scoring contests with total points scored of 25, 23, 37 and 39 points.
Pittsburgh / New York Jets games went UNDER the Over and Under total points in 5 of the last 7 games played between these two teams. The games (six regular season and one playoff game) were played dating back to the 2000 regular season. The AVERAGE TOTAL POINTS SCORED, in these seven contests, was APPROXIMATELY 27 POINTS per game (with only one game exceeding 38 points).
The New York Jets are 18-12, vs. the spread, the last 30 games in the role of an away underdog. This statistic covers the last five regular season and playoff games (2006-2010) including 2-2 straight up and vs. the spread in 4 games this season as an away underdog. The Jets, obviously, covered the two games that they won outright as an away underdog this past regular season (including the win against Pittsburgh). However, the Jets also lost, vs. the spread, the two games they lost outright this season as a road dog.
Noteworthy trend(s): Pittsburgh has been in 15 playoff games since 2001. The Steelers are 11-4 straight up and 10-5 vs. the spread in the 15 playoff games. Additionally, Pittsburgh is 1-0 straight up and 0-1 against the spread, vs. the NY Jets, as reflected in the 2004 season playoff game the two teams played against each other. This is the only playoff game that the teams have played against each other within the last 10 year time period. The playoff game was a HOME victory for Pittsburgh with the game OVER the total Over/ Under points. The above playoff game(s) statistic includes Pittsburgh's straight up and vs. the spread win, against the Baltimore Ravens, last week.
Noteworthy trend(s): The New York Jets have been in 11 playoff games, since the 2001 season, and are 6-5 straight up in these games (7-4 vs. the spread). The Jets have played 10 of the 11 playoff games on the road. The New York Jets have only covered one game on the road (1-4 record against the spread) as an AWAY playoff team during this comparison period (KEY: Statistic is when the Jets have lost the game outright). The Jets covered against Pittsburgh, but lost outright, in the 2004 playoff game.
Noteworthy trend(s): Pittsburgh playoff games have gone OVER the total Over / Under points in 13 of the last 15 games the Steelers have played in. Since 2001, ALL 9 playoffs games, played in Pittsburgh, have gone OVER the total Over / Under points. Of the 9 PITTSBURGH HOME playoff games that went OVER the total points, the TOTAL SCORE was NOT LOWER THAN 37 points in any game. However, three playoff games had total scores of 37 points during this streak (Pittsburgh won all three of these games). The line for the current Over and Under total points for the Pittsburgh / New York game is 38.5 points. The game opened with an Over / Under line of 38.5 points, which increased to 39 points early in the week, and then settled back in at 38.5 points.
See additional analysis and information regarding New York Jets away games in the MJM Wildcard Weekend and Divisional playoff analysis under the Predictions section. One noteworthy item, involving the Jets, is that EVERY AWAY regular season game, that the New York Jets played, went OVER the total Over and Under points. In addition, one playoff game went UNDER (vs. Indianapolis) the total Over and Under points and one playoff game went OVER (vs. New England) the total Over and Under points.
Intangible factor(s): As expected at this time of the year, health issues will play a major factor for those teams seeking to advance to the ultimate game (Super Bowl XLV). The Steelers will have a decided overall advantage with a healthy Troy Polamalu roaming the Steelers secondary and playing safety. "Big Ben" might have a score to settle with the Jets since he was not able to score the winning TD, vs. the Jets, after leading Pittsburgh down field in their previous regular season game. Overall, these two teams play similar style football and have had recent success in the NFL playoffs. The Steelers and Jets are known for their punishing defense(s) and both implement a defensive scheme that makes the opposition get out of their comfort zone. MJM is siding with the Steelers in this game for several reasons. The Steelers lost to the New York Jets, in Pittsburgh, without Polamalu playing in the regular season game. The presence of Polamalu will be immense, for this game, and will definitely provide Pittsburgh's resident genius defensive coordinator (Dick LeBeau) the latitude to employ several surprise packages aimed at disrupting the New York Jets offense and young second year QB. Home field advantage also plays a big factor in these types of pressure packed games. The Jets have a good nucleus of players on both sides of the ball. However, Pittsburgh has several veteran players who have played in, and WON, two SUPER BOWLS within the last six seasons. Pittsburgh should have the fans cheering most of the day and victoriously waiving their "Terrible Towels".

PREDICTION: PITTSBURGH 20 NEW YORK JETS 13

2. CHICAGO BEARS and UNDER the Over / Under total points.

Chicago was 10-6-1 vs. the spread this season (5-4 vs. the spread at Home). The statistic includes Chicago's (home) victory, straight up and vs. the spread, in the Divisional Playoff round last week.
Green Bay was 9-7 vs. the spread during the regular season (4-4 vs. the spread AWAY). Green Bay is 2-0 both straight up and vs. the spread as an AWAY (UNDERDOG) team in the playoffs this season.
Green Bay was 3-3 vs. the spread against other 2010 season playoff teams this year, during the regular season, and is now 5-3 with their other two wins coming in the playoffs against Philadelphia and Atlanta. Green Bay is also 5-2 vs. the spread (AWAY) vs. other playoff teams.
Chicago split the 2010 regular season series with Green Bay but was 2-0 vs. the spread against the Packers with both games going UNDER the total Over and Under points.
The last six regular season games played between Chicago and Green Bay (2008-2010) have gone 6-0 for the UNDER play regarding the Over / Under total points. Additionally, no game went over 40 TOTAL POINTS in this comparison.
Since the 2005 regular season, 11 out of 12 regular season games played between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers resulted in total points scored of 42 or less points in those contests. 9 out of the 12 regular season games played (2005-2010) went UNDER the total Over / Under points.
Noteworthy trend(s): Chicago has been in 6 playoff games, since the 2001 season, with (5 of the 6) games going OVER the total Over / Under points. However, no total was less than 46 points with the average total points scored being approximately 52 points per game. This statistic includes Chicago's 35-24 victory against Seattle in the Divisional Playoff game last week.
See additional analysis and information regarding Green Bay Packers away games in the MJM Wildcard Weekend and Divisional analysis under the Predictions section. One noteworthy item is that 8 out of the 10 (AWAY) games, played by Green Bay this season, have gone UNDER the Over and Under total points. This stat includes the playoff games that Green Bay played against Philadelphia and Atlanta. The only games that went OVER the total points were against New England and the playoff game against Atlanta.
Chicago is 3-3, straight up, in their last 6 playoff games (2-4 vs. the spread); Green Bay is 5-6, both straight up and vs. the spread, in their last 11 playoff games.
Intangible factor(s): The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers will bring tradition and a great amount of history to their playoff game. It's hard to believe that the two teams have never met in a modern era playoff game. MJM predicts a great game filled with plenty of big plays, big hits and interest. The Bears hold a slight edge in the intangible category simply for home field advantage. Otherwise, this should be an exciting game to watch.

PREDICTION: CHICAGO 23 GREEN BAY 20

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

UNDER (38.5 total points) in the PITTSBURGH STEELERS / NEW YORK JETS game.

SEE ABOVE ANALYSIS under Top and Preferred Play(s) Section.

2. UNDER (43.5 total points) in the CHICAGO BEARS / GREEN BAY PACKERS game.

SEE ABOVE ANALYSIS under Top and Preferred Play(s) Section.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: Chicago Bears over the Green Bay Packers IN AN OUTRIGHT VICTORY! MJM predicts a much different game played between Chicago and Green Bay than the type(s) of high scoring, lopsided games both teams played in the Divisional playoff round. Look for Chicago to control the clock and time of possession in an effort to keep Green Bay's offense off the field. Also, the Bears will attempt to lean on their defense to win the game for them. MJM sees this as a successful strategy. MJM is going with "Da Bears" as the UPSET SPECIAL of the week.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

For clients interested in TEASER PLAYS, MJM is offering the following considerations as solid plays:

Our strongest play is to tease Chicago to (+9) points and to tease up the Over and Under total points from 43.5 to 49 points. Take the Bears plus the points (+9) and go UNDER (49 points) regarding the Over / Under total points, in the Chicago / Green Bay game, for a teaser play.

Other good teaser plays are to combine the UNDER play in the Chicago / Green Bay game (UNDER 49 total points), mentioned above, with the Steelers teased up to (+2) points and / or the UNDER play in the Pittsburgh / New York Jets teased up from 38.5 points to (UNDER 44 total points).

To offset overall risk and still provide a possible winning teaser, MJM recommends taking the Bears (+9) points and the New York Jets (+9) points in a teaser. However, this is not a highly rated play...just another option to reduce risk.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: MJM is going with one play as our "Trend Buster" play of the week. Go with the UNDER play in the Pittsburgh Steelers / New York Jets game regarding the Over / Under total points. This game has trends that strongly support an OVER the total points play. ALL 9 of the playoff games that Pittsburgh has hosted, since 2001, have gone OVER the total Over and Under points. In addition, the Jets have been involved in 9 out of 10 away games going OVER the Over and Under total points this season (8 regular season games and 1 playoff game going over the total). However, we see the Pittsburgh / New York Jets game going UNDER as a result of both teams superior play on the defensive side of the ball. Pittsburgh and New York sport the top and 6th ranked scoring defenses, respectively, for the 2010 regular season. Additionally, MJM is predicting a relatively successful total yardage game, for both offenses between the 20 yard lines, but limited success and / or scoring opportunities for either teams offense as both defenses should become very stingy when the opposition gets closer to "Red Zone" scoring opportunities. MJM is going with the ( UNDER ) play for the STEELERS / JETS game!

MJM’s “Free Pick” of the week: This pick is typically reserved for those individuals who are somewhat new to the MJM Sportsline website and seek to obtain a complimentary selection. This week’s “Free Pick” is:

Not Available for the Playoffs.

Divisional Playoff Weekend (Sunday - 01/16/11 ) - MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

CHICAGO BEARS (Giving the points); 10.5 point favorite at time of publication.
OVER (43 total points) in the CHICAGO BEARS / SEATTLE SEAHAWKS game at time of publication.
NEW YORK JETS (Getting the points); 10 point underdog at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

UNDER (44.5 total points) in the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS / NEW YORK JETS game at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays and Preferred Plays combined):

CHICAGO BEARS and OVER the Over / Under total points.

Chicago was 9-6-1 vs. the spread this season (4-4 at HOME vs. the spread).
Chicago was 2-4-1, vs. the spread, as a favorite in 2010. Chicago was 1-3 at HOME, including 0-1 against Seattle, vs. the spread in Chicago.
Chicago / Seattle games have gone OVER the total Over / Under points the last 5 games the two teams played each other (including Chicago's 23-20 loss to Seattle, in Chicago, in the 2010 regular season).
Noteworthy trend(s): The average total points scored in the five OVER games, played between Chicago and Seattle, was approximately 47 points (NOT LESS THAN 43 points in any of the games).

Noteworthy trend(s): Chicago has been in 5 playoff games, since 2001 season, with (4 of the 5) games going OVER the total Over / Under points. However, no total was less than 47 points with the average total points scored being in excess of 50 points per game.
Noteworthy trend(s): Seattle is ( 2-14 ) both STRAIGHT UP and vs. the SPREAD as a ROAD UNDERDOG, the last 16 games played in this role. The Average Margin of Loss (AML), for Seattle in these games that they lost as an away underdog, is approximately 21 points per game. Obviously, Seattle is a terrible team when playing on the road!
See additional analysis and information regarding Seattle Seahawks games in the MJM Wildcard Weekend analysis under the Predictions section. One noteworthy item is that Seattle is 1-7 straight up (2-6 vs. the spread) the last 8 games they have been a double digit UNDERDOG (ALL seven losses, straight up, have occurred when Seattle was playing AWAY games). Seattle's lone straight up victory, as a double digit underdog, came last week in their NFL Wildcard Weekend game against New Orleans.
Intangible factor(s): The Chicago Bears will have several factors on their side for the game against the Seattle Seahawks. First, the Bears defense is stellar and will be able to put pressure on Matt Hasselbeck to throw his timing off. Second, Seattle will be playing on a slower track than what they play on at Qwest field. Third, poor weather might affect Seattle's overall play (snow and snow showers are predicted for game time conditions) and would definitely give Chicago an advantage. Lastly, Chicago is a much better overall team than Seattle. Look for the Seahawks to continue their pathetic road play and lose this game by a big margin.

PREDICTION: CHICAGO 31 SEATTLE 17

2. NEW YORK JETS and UNDER the Over / Under total points.

New England was 11-5 vs. the spread, overall, this season (8-0 straight up and 5-3 vs. the spread at HOME).
New England was 6-1 and 4-3, straight up and against the spread, respectively against other 2010 playoff teams.
New England is 8-1 straight up in their last 9 HOME playoff games. However, the Patriots are only 4-4-1 vs. the spread in these same 9 playoff games.
New England 2010 regular season games resulted in the OVER play being the correct selection, regarding the Over / Under total points, in 13 out of 16 games. Additionally, 7 out of 8 New England ( HOME ) games went OVER the total Over / Under points this season.
New England has lost their last 5 consecutive playoff games against the spread.
See additional analysis and information regarding New York Jets away games in the MJM Wildcard Weekend analysis under the Predictions section. One noteworthy item is that 8 out of 9 ( AWAY ) games, played by the New York Jets this season, have gone OVER the Over and Under total points. This stat includes the playoff game that New York played last week, against Indianapolis, and that was the only (Away) UNDER game including the regular season and playoff game.
Noteworthy trend(s): 12 out of the last 18 playoff games, involving New England, have gone UNDER the total Over / Under points.
Noteworthy trend(s): New England is 14-4, straight up, in all 18 playoff games that Bill Belichick has coached. However, the Patriots are a less than average team when covering the spread (8-9-1) in the 18 playoff games coached by Belichick.
Intangible factor(s): The winner of the game between the New England Patriots and New York Jets most likely will be the team that has the most success with their strengths (i.e New England's high powered offense or the New York Jets ground and pound run offense and dominant defense). MJM predicts limited success for both the Patriots and Jets offenses and defenses. The game should involve several unique or trick plays as these two teams know each other fairly well and will look to capitalize when the opportunity presents itself to either team. Tom Brady will need to play at a high level to ensure a New England victory. The Jets, although a heavy underdog in this game, has an excellent chance of pulling an UPSET against New England. The Jets have a solid team and can certainly control the tempo of the ballgame if their running game is successful. Also, it seems as though the New York Jets have a chip on their shoulder and may be highly motivated to prove that the New England victory (45-3) against the Jets, in New England during the regular season, was a fluke. MJM predicts an UPSET win for the New York Jets and a relatively low scoring game. MJM is going with the JETS as an UPSET SPECIAL of the week.

PREDICTION: NEW YORK JETS 23 NEW ENGLAND 20

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

OVER (43 total points) in the CHICAGO BEARS / SEATTLE SEAHAWKS game.

SEE ABOVE ANALYSIS under Top and Preferred Play(s) Section.

2. UNDER (44.5 total points) in the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS / NEW YORK JETS game.

SEE ABOVE ANALYSIS under Top and Preferred Play(s) Section.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: New York Jets over the New England Patriots IN AN OUTRIGHT VICTORY! MJM predicts the same fate for the Patriots as was predicted for the Colts last week. MJM is going with the Jets, again, as the UPSET SPECIAL of the week.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

For clients interested in TEASER PLAYS, MJM is offering the following considerations as solid plays:

Our strongest play is to tease Chicago down to (-5) points and to tease up the New York Jets to (+16) points. Take the Bears and Jets as MJM is predicting a big win for Chicago and an upset victory for the New York Jets.

Other good teaser plays are to combine the OVER play in the Chicago / Seattle game (OVER 37 total points), with the New York Jets (+16) points and / or the UNDER play in the New England / New York Jets game teased up to UNDER 50 total points.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: MJM is going with two plays as our "Trend Buster" plays, for Sunday's Divisional playoff games, and to be included with our "Trend Buster" plays of the week. Go with the Chicago Bears as a HOME favorite against Seattle and the UNDER play in the New England / New York Jets game regarding the Over / Under total points. The Chicago / Seattle game has trends that support going against Chicago (2-4-1 vs. the spread record as a favorite in 2010) AND going against Seattle (Seattle's poor record as an Away and Double Digit Underdog). Also, both the New York Jets (AWAY games going OVER in 8 of the 9 games this season) and New England Patriots (7 out of 8 HOME games going OVER the total Over and Under points) have trends supporting an OVER play regarding the total Over and Under points.

Not Available for the Playoffs.

Divisional Playoff Weekend (Saturday - 01/15/11 ) - MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Giving the points); 3.5 point favorite at time of publication.
ATLANTA FALCONS (Giving the points); 1.5 point favorite at time of publication.
OVER (37.5 total points) in the PITTSBURGH STEELERS / BALTIMORE RAVENS game at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

OVER (44 total points) in the ATLANTA FALCONS / GREEN BAY PACKERS game at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays and Preferred Plays combined):

PITTSBURGH STEELERS and OVER the Over / Under total points.

Pittsburgh was 10-6 vs. the spread this season (5-3 at HOME vs. the spread).
Pittsburgh games went 9-7 for the UNDER play regarding the Over / Under total points this season (The UNDER play came in 5 out of 8 times in Pittsburgh HOME games).
Since 2000, Pittsburgh is 14-10 straight up (including 2-0 in the playoffs) and 12-11-1 vs. the spread against Baltimore.
Noteworthy trend(s): Pittsburgh has been in 14 playoff games since 2001. The Steelers are 10-4 straight up and 9-5 vs. the spread in the 14 playoff games. Additionally, Pittsburgh is 2-0 both straight up and against the spread, vs. Baltimore, in the two playoff games the two teams have played against each other. Both of these playoff games were in Pittsburgh and both went OVER the total Over/ Under points.
Noteworthy trend(s): Pittsburgh regular season and playoff (HOME) games, vs. Baltimore, have gone OVER the total Over / Under points 8-2-1 times since the Steelers / Ravens 2001 playoff game.
Noteworthy trend(s): Pittsburgh playoff games have gone OVER the total Over / Under points in 12 of the last 14 games the Steelers have played in. Since 2001, ALL 8 playoffs games, played in Pittsburgh, have gone OVER the total Over / Under points. Of the 8 playoff games that went OVER the total points, the TOTAL SCORE was NOT LOWER THAN 37 points in any game. However, three playoff games had total scores of 37 points during this streak (Pittsburgh won all three of these games). The current Over and Under Vegas line is 37.5 points for the Pittsburgh / Baltimore game. The game opened with an Over / Under line of 36.5 points.
See additional analysis and information regarding Baltimore Ravens away games in the MJM Wildcard Weekend analysis under the Predictions section. One noteworthy item is that 12 of the 14 playoff games that Baltimore has played in have gone UNDER 38 total points (including the playoff game, last week, against the Kansas City Chiefs).
Intangible factor(s): As expected at this time of the year, health issues will play a factor for those teams seeking to advance further into the playoffs. The Steelers will have a decided overall advantage with a healthy Troy Polamalu playing free safety. Troy Polamalu was able to practice this past Thursday (after resting the entire week). Additionally, the Steelers defense might receive a welcome boost from the return of starting DE (Aaron Smith) who had been injured most of the season (tricep injury). "Big Ben" might have a score to settle with the Ravens nose tackle who was responsible for breaking Roethlisberger's nose in the game played in Baltimore. Overall, these two teams play similar style football, have had success in the playoffs and know each other's tendencies real well. One mistake or break could provide the winning edge to the team on the receiving end...these two teams are that close! However, MJM is siding with the Steelers in this game for several reasons. The Steelers lost to Baltimore, in Pittsburgh, without Big Ben playing in the game and on a last minute drive and touchdown pass. The presence of Roethlisberger will be immense for this game and will contribute to Pittsburgh's overall success in winning this game. The Steelers should be able to run the football better on the Ravens defense than Baltimore will on Pittsburgh's top ranked rush defense. Home field advantage also plays a big factor in these types of rivalry games and Pittsburgh should have the fans cheering most of the day.

PREDICTION: PITTSBURGH 24 BALTIMORE 16

2. ATLANTA FALCONS and OVER the Over / Under total points.

Atlanta was 11-5 vs. the spread this season (5-3 vs. the spread at HOME).
Atlanta was 4-3, both straight up and versus the spread, against other 2010 season playoff teams (including 1-0 straight up and vs. the spread against Green Bay).
Atlanta won and covered in all 4 of their victories, against other 2010 season playoff teams, but they also lost against the spread in all 3 of their losses to these teams.
Atlanta games went 9-7 for the OVER play this season (including 4-4 at HOME and 0-1 vs. Green Bay this season).
See additional analysis and information regarding Green Bay Packers away games in the MJM Wildcard Weekend analysis under the Predictions section. One noteworthy item is that 1 out of the 9 ( AWAY ) games, played by Green Bay this season, have gone OVER the Over and Under total points. This stat includes the playoff game that Green Bay played against Philadelphia, last week, and the regular season game between Green Bay and Atlanta.
Noteworthy trend(s): 4 out of the last 6 games played between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers have been settled by a field goal.
Noteworthy trend(s): Atlanta is 4-2 straight up and 5-1 vs. the spread in the last 6 games played against Green Bay.
Intangible factor(s): The winner of the game between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers most likely will be the team that has the most success with their strengths (i.e Atlanta's high powered offense or Green Bay's dominant defense). MJM predicts success for the Falcons and Packers on offense. The Atlanta Falcons fans will have the Georgia dome rockin' and help the Falcons to another victory over the Green Bay Packers. Look for both Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers to have outstanding games as the Over and Under total will go OVER the total. Also, Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White will play integral roles in keeping Green Bay's defense out of sync. MJM predicts a win for the Falcons and a relatively high scoring game.

PREDICTION: ATLANTA 27 GREEN BAY 23

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

OVER (37.5 total points) in the PITTSBURGH STEELERS / BALTIMORE RAVENS game.

2. OVER (44 total points) in the ATLANTA FALCONS / GREEN BAY PACKERS game.

SEE ABOVE ANALYSIS under Top and Preferred Play(s) Section.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: New York Jets over the New England Patriots IN AN OUTRIGHT VICTORY! MJM predicts the same fate for the Patriots as was predicted for the Colts last week. MJM is going with the Jets, again, as the UPSET SPECIAL of the week.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

For clients interested in TEASER PLAYS, MJM is offering the following considerations as solid plays:

Our strongest play is to tease Pittsburgh to (+2) points and to tease down the Over and Under total points from 37.5 to 32 points. Take the Steelers plus the points (+2) and go OVER (32 points) regarding the Over / Under total points, in the Steelers / Ravens game, for a teaser play.

Other good teaser plays are to combine the OVER play in the Pittsburgh / Baltimore game (OVER 32 total points), mentioned above, with the Falcons teased up to (+3) points and / or the OVER play in the Atlanta / Green Bay game teased down to OVER 38 total points.

To offset overall risk and still provide a possible winning teaser, MJM recommends taking the Ravens (+9) points and the Packers (+8) points in a teaser. However, this is not a highly rated play...just another option to reduce risk.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: MJM is going with two plays as our "Trend Buster" plays, for Saturday's divisional playoff games, and to be included with our "Trend Buster" plays of the week. Go with the OVER plays in both the Pittsburgh Steelers / Baltimore Ravens game and Atlanta Falcons / Green Bay Packers game regarding the Over / Under total points. Each game has trends that support UNDER plays. However, we see the Pittsburgh / Baltimore game going OVER as a result of DEFENSE (i.e. hard hitting game leading to key turnovers and potential scoring opportunities for both teams) combined with stellar QB play from "Big Ben" and Joe Flacco. Pittsburgh and Green Bay sport the top two ranked scoring defenses for the 2010 regular season. Additionally, MJM is predicting a huge game for both Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers that will permit both the Falcons and Packers with many scoring opportunities. Baltimore and Atlanta sport the third and fifth ranked scoring defenses, respectively, for the 2010 regular season. MJM is going with the ( OVER ) plays for both contests.

Not Available for the Playoffs.

Wildcard Weekend (Sunday - 01/09/11 ) - MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

BALTIMORE RAVENS (Giving the points); 3.5 point favorite at time of publication.
UNDER (41.5 total points) in the BALTIMORE RAVENS / KANSAS CITY CHIEFS game at time of publication.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Giving the points); 2.5 point favorite at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

UNDER (47 total points) in the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES / GREEN BAY PACKERS game at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays and Preferred Plays combined):

BALTIMORE RAVENS and UNDER the Over / Under total points.

Baltimore was 8-8 vs. the spread this season (5-3 in AWAY games vs. the spread).
Baltimore (AWAY) games went 5-3 for the UNDER play, during the regular season, including 3-1 for the UNDER total Over / Under points when playing against other 2010 season playoff teams on the road.
Baltimore games that involved other 2010 regular season playoff teams went UNDER the total Over / Under points in 4 out of 6 overall games played against these opponents.
Kansas City was 9-7 vs. the spread this season (5-3 at HOME).
Kansas City was 7-1, straight up, at HOME this season. However, only one team (San Diego Chargers with an overall record of 9-7) had a winning record of the 8 teams that Kansas City played at HOME during the regular season. In other words, Kansas City was able to capitalize on playing against weak opponents to win 7 out of 8 games at Arrowhead stadium. Fact: Kansas City won as many regular season games, in 2010, as they had won in the previous three seasons (2007-2009). Therefore, MJM feels it's important to temper the outlook for a team that finished with a 10-6 overall record and is only hosting it's first playoff game since 2003.
Kansas City is 2-2, straight up and vs. the spread, against Baltimore over the past 10 years (0-2 the last two meetings between the two teams). Two of the games went UNDER (with the only game played in Kansas City having gone UNDER the total Over / Under points).
Kansas City has made the playoffs only twice, the past 10 years, and are 0-2 both straight up and against the spread in these two playoff games. Kansas City lost both of these playoff games to Indianapolis and played one at Home and one Away.
Noteworthy trend(s): Baltimore is 8-5 both straight up and against the spread in the 13 playoff games they have played in since the 2000 season. Baltimore has covered, against the spread, in ALL playoff (8 total wins since the 2000 season) victories and has also lost against the spread in all 5 playoff games that were lost outright. MJM sees an easy win for Baltimore and a continuance of the above mentioned trend. Additionally, Baltimore has lost 4 of 5 playoff games to only two teams (Pittsburgh and Indianapolis) who have gone on to play in the Super Bowl that same season (3 out of 4 times). In other words, Baltimore typically plays well in the playoffs and has lost to some very good, quality teams.
Noteworthy trend(s): 11 out of 13 playoff games, that Baltimore has played in over the past 10 years, have gone UNDER 38 total points The two games that went OVER at least 38 total points was Baltimore's Super Bowl win, in 2000, against the N. Y. Giants (34-7) and Baltimore's win against New England (33-14) in last year's playoffs.
Intangible factor(s): Baltimore will look to utilize previous playoff experience and success to offset any advantage that Kansas City might have with hosting the playoff game in Arrowhead stadium. The initial raucous fan support and loud noise associated with the Kansas City fanbase might play a small role in disrupting Baltimore's offense and related strategy. However, MJM believes Baltimore will overcome any minor obstacles and / or setbacks with superior talent. Kansas City will have a difficult time running the football (even though the Chiefs finished with the number one rushing offense, in the NFL, this season) against a nasty Baltimore defense. Lewis, Ngata, Suggs, Reed, etc. will put a good hurting on Charles and Jones. Kansas City's offense will become one dimensional and Baltimore's defense will go to town.

PREDICTION: BALTIMORE 23 KANSAS CITY 13

2. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES and UNDER the Over / Under total points.

Philadelphia was 7-9 vs. the spread this season (3-5 at HOME).
Green Bay was 9-7 vs. the spread this season (4-4 vs. the spread AWAY).
Green Bay was 3-3 vs. the spread against other 2010 season playoff teams this year (including 3-2 vs. the spread in away games).
11 out of 16 games resulted in total points of 47 or more scored between Philadelphia and their opponents this season. This is an item of interest as the opening Over / Under line for the Philadelphia / Green Bay game started at 46 points and has increased to 47 points at time of publication. This point movement is indicative of a majority of individuals predicting a high scoring game (at least a game where the total points scored will exceed what Vegas has established).
Philadelphia (Home) games went 3-5 for the UNDER play regarding the total Over / Under points during the regular season.
10 out of 16 games went UNDER the total Over / Under points involving Green bay this season (including the first seven AWAY games).
Green Bay (AWAY) games resulted in a 7-1 record for the UNDER the total Over / Under points play being the correct choice.
Noteworthy trend(s): Philadelphia has played 18 in playoff games over the last 10 seasons (2000-2009). Philadelphia games have gone UNDER the total Over / Under points in 11 of the 18 games. Additionally, Philadelphia is 11-7, in the 18 playoff games, vs. the spread.
Noteworthy trend(s): 7 out of the last 8 games played between Philadelphia and Green Bay have gone UNDER the total Over / Under points (including the 2010 regular season game that was won by Green Bay, in Philadelphia, by the score of 27-20).

Intangible factor(s): The Eagles will look to avenge their week 1 loss to the Packers. Philadelphia's offense should be able to outplay Green Bay's defense and will have a slight home field advantage in this game. Andy Reid, Philadelphia's head coach, typically does well in the first round / first game played in the playoffs. Reid was a perfect 7-0 in initial playoff games (prior to losing to Dallas in the opening round of last year's playoffs). Reid has taken the Eagles to the playoffs in 8 of the last 10 seasons (The Eagles have played a minimum of two playoff games in 7 of the 8 years they have reached the playoffs) and MJM envisions them making it to the divisional round next week.

PREDICTION PHILADELPHIA 27 GREEN BAY 16

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

UNDER (47 total points) in the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES / GREEN BAY PACKERS game.

SEE ABOVE ANALYSIS under Top and Preferred Play(s) Section.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: New York Jets over the Indianapolis Colts in an outright victory. (MJM was correct with predicting this UPSET in yesterday's Wildcard NFL playoff action)!

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

For clients interested in TEASER PLAYS: Our strongest play(s) are as follows:

Tease Baltimore to (+2) points and tease the Over / Under total points in the Baltimore / Kansas City game up to 47 points. The teaser play MJM recommends is: Baltimore (+2) and UNDER 47 total points in the Baltimore / Kansas City game.

Tease the Over / Under total points in the Baltimore / Kansas City game up to 47 points and tease the Over / Under total points in the Philadelphia / Green Bay game up to 53 points. The teaser play MJM recommends is: UNDER 47 total points in the Baltimore / Kansas City game and UNDER 53 points in the Philadelphia / Green Bay game.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: MJM is going with another play, in addition to the two "Trend Buster" plays recommended in Saturday's Wildcard match ups, to be included with our "Trend Buster" plays of the week. MJM is going with the UNDER 47 total points play in the Philadelphia Eagles / Green Bay Packers game regarding the Over / Under total points. This game has a trend that supports an OVER play (see additional detail included in the above Top Plays and Preferred Plays analysis section). However, MJM believes that Philadelphia will have their offensive coordinator (Marty Mornhinweg) try to incorporate a more balanced run / pass attack rather than lean on Mike Vick to try and win the game via deep strikes to Jackson and other Eagles WR's. This type of strategy will also keep Aaron Rodgers off of the field and limit his opportunities to score points. Look for "history to repeat itself" and take into consideration the number of games, recently played between Philadelphia and Green Bay, that have gone UNDER the total Over / Under points (detail also addressed as a noteworthy trend in above Top Plays and Preferred Plays game analysis). MJM is going with the ( UNDER ) play in the Philadelphia / Green Bay game.

Not Available for the Playoffs.

Wildcard Weekend (Saturday - 01/08/11 ) - MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (Giving the points); 10 point favorite at time of publication.
NEW YORK JETS (Getting the points); 2.5 point underdog at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

UNDER (46 total points) in the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS / SEATTLE SEAHAWKS game at time of publication.
UNDER (44.5 total points) in the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS / NEW YORK JETS game at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays and Preferred Plays combined):

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS and UNDER the Over / Under total points.

New Orleans was 6-9-1 vs. the spread this season. 5 out of the 6 against the spread (ATS) victories resulted in the UNDER play being the winning pick regarding the total Over / Under points. The one exception (OVER) play was the game between New Orleans and Seattle that was played in the Superdome and won by New Orleans 34-19.
Seattle was 7-9 straight up and vs. the spread this season. Additionally, Seattle covered every game that they won outright and FAILED to cover ANY game that they lost outright.
New Orleans has been in 7 playoff games since 2000. The Saints are 5-2 straight up and 3-4 vs. the spread in these playoff games. Also, the OVER play has come in 5-1-1 regarding these games. One 2000 playoff game resulted in a tie for the Over / Under play while the UNDER play was for Super Bowl XLIV played last year.
New Orleans playoff games have averaged OVER 54 total points scored, since 2000, with the LOWEST Over / Under total being the 48 total points scored in last year's Super Bowl played between New Orleans and Indianapolis.
Seattle games went 11-4-1 (OVER) regarding the Over / Under total points. Seattle games, involving 4 other 2010 playoff teams, went OVER in every game (4-0) including SU and ATS losses to New Orleans (away), Kansas City (home) and Atlanta (home). The one SU and ATS victory was against Chicago.
Noteworthy trend(s): Seattle is 0-7 straight up (1-6 vs. the spread) the last seven games they have been a double digit UNDERDOG. All seven games have been road games and date back to the 2008 season. (The New Orleans / Seattle game opened with New Orleans being favored by 10.5 points. The current Vegas line has New Orleans as a 10 point favorite).
Noteworthy trend(s): New Orleans is 9-3 and 8-4 straight up and vs. the spread, respectively, when having played against other playoff teams in the same season. This trend is for the 2009 and 2010 seasons. This stat includes New Orleans straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) victory against Seattle this season.
Intangible factor(s): As expected at this time of the year, health issues will play a factor for those teams seeking to advance past the Wildcard Weekend of the playoffs. Both the Saints and Seahawks have had to deal with recent injuries to key players. The Saints will be without their two top running backs (Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas) who were placed on injured reserve this past week. Also, starting wide receiver Marques Colston had arthroscopic knee surgery less than two weeks ago and the Saints have an injured starting cornerback who will be less than 100% healthy for the game. The Seahawks, on the other hand, will have the services of their starting quarterback (Matt Hasselbeck) for the game. Hasselbeck missed last week with a hip injury. The Seahawks recently placed a starting offensive guard on the IR (injured reserve) and have a future potential Pro Bowl offensive tackle (Russell Okung) who is dealing with an ankle injury. Look for Reggie Bush to raise his level of play as Bush should have added incentive to "show up" Seattle's head coach (Pete Carroll) who was also Reggie Bush's college coach. Carroll was not overly supportive of Reggie Bush, earlier this season, when Bush dealt with previous issues regarding his college playing days at USC. Bush eventually returned the Heisman trophy he was awarded and might have a score to settle with Carroll.

PREDICTION: NEW ORLEANS 31 SEATTLE 13

2. NEW YORK JETS and UNDER the Over / Under total points.

Indianapolis was 8-7-1 vs. the spread this season (4-4 vs. the spread at Home).
New York Jets were 9-7 vs. the spread this season (Including 2-4 vs. the spread against other 2010 season playoff teams).
Games between Indianapolis / New York Jets have gone OVER the Over / Under total points in 6 out of the last 7 games (including one tie) played. This stat includes 1-0-1 for two playoff games.
Indianapolis games went 10-6 (OVER) regarding the Over / Under total points this season (3-5 for OVER at Home).
Indianapolis has scored AT LEAST 23 points per game this season in 14 out of 16 games.
Noteworthy trend(s): New York Jets games went 12-4 (OVER) regarding the Over / Under total points this season. The Jets and other 2010 playoff teams went OVER the total points in 4 of the 6 contests. ALL 8 AWAY games, involving the Jets, went OVER the Over / Under total points this season.
Noteworthy trend(s): Indianapolis is 9-9, straight up, in playoff games dating back to, and including, the 1999 season. Peyton Manning was involved in all of these playoff games. Indianapolis is a perfect 9-0 in all 9 of their playoff victories. However, Indianapolis is 0-9 in all 9 of their playoff losses. Previous stats are, of course, referencing against the spread results.
Noteworthy trend(s): Playoff games involving Indianapolis have gone UNDER the total Over / Under points 11 out of 18 times dating to 1999.
Intangible factor(s): The Colts have played at a high level for a significant time (nine straight years of playoff appearances and 11 of the past 12 years). The Colts have gone to the Super Bowl in 2 of the last 4 seasons. However, something just doesn't seem right with the Colts this season. The Colts running game has been very poor and the reliance on Peyton Manning, to carry the team to victory, is becoming more and more prevalent. The time might just be right for a changing of the guard among the upper echelon teams (including New England) in the AFC. Look for the Jets to play a tough, physical game against the Colts. MJM sees the Jets shutting down the Indianapolis running game and forcing Manning into a one dimensional game. New York is the MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week.

PREDICTION NEW YORK JETS 24 INDIANAPOLIS 20

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

UNDER (46 total points) in the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS / SEATTLE SEAHAWKS game.

2. UNDER (44.5 total points) in the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS / NEW YORK JETS game.

SEE ABOVE ANALYSIS under Top and Preferred Play(s) Section.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: New York Jets over the Indianapolis Colts in an outright victory.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

For clients interested in TEASER PLAYS: Our strongest play is to tease New Orleans down to (-4) points and teasing the Jets up to (+8) points.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: MJM is going with two plays as our "Trend Buster" plays of the week. Go with the UNDER plays in both the New Orleans / Seattle game and Indianapolis / N. Y. Jets game regarding the Over / Under total points. Each game has trends that support OVER plays. However, we see the Jets controlling the tempo of the game against the Colts with a steady combination of LT runs and short passes to manage the clock. Also, don't be surprised to see Seattle and New Orleans play a fairly tight game initially (possibly even due to weather conditions). New Orleans should be able to open up the game with a couple of scores and then control the clock with a steady dose of west coast style offense. MJM is going with the ( UNDER ) plays for both contests.

Not Available for the Playoffs.

Week 17 (1/02/11 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

HOUSTON TEXANS (Giving the points); 3.5 point favorite at time of publication.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (Giving the points); 10.5 point favorite at time of publication.
ST. LOUIS RAMS (Giving the points); 3 point favorite at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

OAKLAND RAIDERS (Getting the points); 4 point underdog at time of publication.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (Giving the points); 4 point favorite at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

HOUSTON TEXANS

Houston is 6-2, vs. the spread, at Home against Jacksonville. The 8 home games represent the entire seasons that Houston has been in the NFL (Houston entered the league as an expansion team in 2002).
Houston's average margin of victory (AML) is in excess of 15 points per game, comparing the last four straight up and against the spread victories, when playing Jacksonville in Houston's Reliant stadium.
Intangible factor(s): Jacksonville will be without two key players for this game. David Garrard, Jacksonville's starting QB, has been placed on season ending IR (injured reserve); Maurice Jones Drew, Jacksonville's starting and Pro Bowl bound running back, is also injured.

2. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Cincinnati is 9-3 straight up and vs. the spread the last 12 games against Baltimore (including a week 2 straight up and vs. the spread victory earlier this season). Baltimore is MJM's TREND BUSTER play of the week.
Noteworthy trend involving the Cincinnati / Baltimore match up is that every outright winner has covered the spread in the past 21 total games! That’s a perfect 21-0 vs. the spread in favor of the outright winner between these two AFC North rivals! MJM is predicting a Baltimore victory and the continuation of this impressive trend in favor of the winner between Baltimore and Cincinnati.
Intangible factor(s): Baltimore needs a victory against Cincinnati (and to have Pittsburgh lose to Cleveland) in order to clinch the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs. We don't see any issue in Baltimore taking care of it's part of the above scenario. Also, Cincinnati really does not have anything to play for in this season finale. Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati's head coach) could very well be coaching his last game for the Bengals. Look for the Ravens to avenge the loss to the Bengals, earlier this season, and win by at least a couple of touchdowns.

3. ST. LOUIS RAMS

St. Louis has lost the last three consecutive games played against Seattle, in Seattle, by an aggregate score of 98-19. Additionally, each of the Rams losses were by a minimum of 24 points.
Prior to the St. Louis victory over Seattle (week 4 of this season), the Rams had lost 10 consecutive games to the Seahawks.
Intangible factor(s): St. Louis has played better this season than most would have thought and given that they are starting a rookie QB. The Rams have already won more games this season than they had for the past three COMBINED seasons. A victory against Seattle would enable the Rams to finish the regular season at 8-8 and win the NFC WEST division. Seattle will be without starting QB (Matt Hasselbeck) and has a terrible rushing offense. Look for the Rams to play inspired football and take the NFC WEST division with a win against Seattle.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

OAKLAND RAIDERS

2. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

San Diego is 7-2 straight up the last 9 games played against Denver and 7-1-1 vs. the spread (includes San Diego's straight up and against the spread victory earlier this season, against Denver, by the score of 35-14).
The Average Margin of Victory (AMV), comparing the seven San Diego wins over Denver, as mentioned above, is approximately 25 points per game. In addition, the last 6 victories by the Chargers over the Broncos has been by a minimum of 20 points. Enough said?
Intangible factor(s): San Diego will try to avoid an 8-8 season. The Chargers are a much more talented team than the Broncos and should be able to end the season with an easy victory. Denver is dealing with issues involving their interim head coach, uncertainty at the QB position and has little incentive to play competitively against the Chargers. San Diego will win without too much difficulty.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: Oakland Raiders against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders are also one of MJM's "Preferred Plays" for this week.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

Green Bay Packers over the Chicago Bears.

Dallas Cowboys over the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Bears and Eagles have wrapped up the #2 and #3 seeding in the NFC playoffs and have little incentive to play their starters. Look for the Packers to win by a couple of touchdowns to ensure that they make it into the playoffs as the #6 seed. We expect that Dallas will play hard and end a nightmare season on a good note.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: The Baltimore Ravens are one of MJM's "Top Play" picks for the week and also a top Trend Buster of the week play. Please review the Top Play analysis regarding this game. Actually, the Ravens should continue a very impressive "trend" that has been 100% accurate the past 21 games between Baltimore and Cincinnati. The outright winner of this game has also covered the line 21 out of the last 21 times. We don't expect Baltimore to lose this game and they should be able to cover the double digit spread if they play their style of football.

NEW YORK GIANTS over the Washington Redskins. The Giants are 4-0, both straight up and vs. the spread, the last 4 games played against Washington (AWAY). New York needs a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. MJM is going with the New York Giants.

Week 16 (12/26/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Giving the points); 14 point favorite at time of publication.
ST. LOUIS RAMS (Giving the points); 2.5 point favorite at time of publication.
UNDER (44.5 total points) in the MINNESOTA / PHILADELPHIA game at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (Getting the points); 3 point underdog at time of publication.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (Giving the points); 6 point favorite at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

2. ST. LOUIS RAMS

St. Louis is 1-5, vs. the spread, the last 6 Home games played against San Francisco. However, these games have typically been close as 5 out of the last 7 games played between the two teams (in St. Louis) have been settled by 4 or less points. Additionally, the Rams lost in overtime, 23-20, earlier this season in San Francisco. St. Louis is MJM's TREND BUSTER play of the week.
Intangible factor(s): The Rams were humiliated last year as they lost both games to the 49ers by a combined score of 63-6 and should use this as motivation. St. Louis has played well at home this season and will have additional incentive to win as they are in the hunt to win the NFC West division and get into the playoffs.
Limited detailed analysis for this Top Play as there are no other significant / strong trends to support decision.

3. UNDER (44.5 total points) in the MINNESOTA / PHILADELPHIA game at time of publication.

Limited detailed analysis for this Top Play as there are no significant / strong trends to support the UNDER play decision. Brett Favre most likely will not suit up for the game. Minnesota will need to lean heavily on their run game to keep the high scoring Philadelphia Eagles offense off of the field and to better manage the game clock. The Minnesota defense will look to pressure Michael Vick into making mistakes and will play loose as the Vikings have nothing to lose or gain in this contest. Look for a relatively low scoring game as the weather conditions should also be a factor.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

2. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

No detailed analysis for this Preferred Play as there are no significant / strong trends to support decision with the exception of the fact that Seattle is an extremely poor road underdog team (See Week 11 MJM Preferred Play analysis of the New Orleans Saints / Seattle Seahawks game for further details).

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: New York Giants against the Green Bay Packers.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

Baltimore Ravens over the Cleveland Browns.

San Diego Chargers over the Cincinnati Bengals.

Kansas City Chiefs over the Tennessee Titans.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: The St. Louis Rams are 1-5, vs. the spread, the last 6 Home games played against the San Francisco 49ers. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 1-4, vs. the spread, the last 5 games played against Seattle. Look for these two potential playoff bound teams to continue their winning ways at home and cover the respective line.

MJM’s "Free Pick" of the week: This pick is typically reserved for those individuals who are somewhat new to the MJM Sportsline website and seek to obtain a complimentary selection. This week’s “Free Pick” is:

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS over the Oakland Raiders. Indianapolis is seeking a playoff berth for the ninth season in a row. Oakland has shown good improvement this year but still is not in the same class as a seasoned and playoff experienced team such as Indianapolis. MJM IS GOING WITH INDIANAPOLIS.

Week 15 (12/19/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (Giving the points); 4.5 point favorite at time of publication.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (Getting the points); Pick 'em game at time of publication.
DALLAS COWBOYS (Giving the points); 9 point favorite at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (Giving the points); 10 point favorite at time of publication.
ATLANTA FALCONS (Giving the points); 6.5 point favorite at time of publication.
NEW YORK JETS (Getting the points); 4 point underdog at time of publication.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (Giving the points); 8 point favorite at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
CLEVELAND BROWNS
DALLAS COWBOYS

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

2. ATLANTA FALCONS

3. NEW YORK JETS

4. OAKLAND RAIDERS

No detailed analysis for Preferred Plays as there are no significant / strong trends to support decisions.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: New York Jets to cover against Pittsburgh.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

St. Louis Rams over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Detroit Lions over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: The Indianapolis Colts are 1-5 vs. the spread the last 6 games played against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Look for Indianapolis to win by at least a touchdown.

BALTIMORE RAVENS over the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans is bringing their high profile, scoring offense to play in Baltimore. We think that the cold weather will be a factor in deciding the outcome of the game. Look for Baltimore to play some inspired defense and shut down Drew Brees in what could be one of the best games played this week. Also, Joe Flacco and Ray Rice should be able to jump start Baltimore's offense at home. MJM IS GOING WITH BALTIMORE.

Week 14 (12/12/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

CLEVELAND BROWNS (Getting the points); Pick game at time of publication. Cleveland opened as a 2 point underdog.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Giving the points); 9 point favorite at time of publication.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (Giving the points); 7 point favorite at time of publication.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Giving the points); 3.5 point favorite at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

UNDER (47.5 total points) in the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS / ST. LOUIS RAMS game at time of publication.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (Giving the points); 10 point favorite at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

CLEVELAND BROWNS

2. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Pittsburgh is 10-4, the last 14 games played vs. Cincinnati, both straight up and vs. the spread.
Cincinnati typically plays well against Pittsburgh, in Pittsburgh, and is 5-3 vs. the spread (4-4 straight up) over the past 8 games played in Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh is 6-4 straight up (5-5 vs. the spread) vs. Cincinnati the last 10 games played at home. However, Pittsburgh’s average margin of victory (AMV) is over 12 points per game in the six victories against Cincinnati. Pittsburgh won the above mentioned games by the following margins: 15, 9, 8, 11, 14 and 17 points.
Pittsburgh is 14-4, straight up, the past 18 December HOME games.
Noteworthy trend(s): The outright winner of the game played between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati has covered 21 out of the past 22 games vs. the spread. The only exception was Pittsburgh’s win, at home in 2002, where the Steelers won 29-21 but didn’t cover the line (10.5 point favorites). Incidentally, Pittsburgh has been a double digit favorite only twice, in the past 10 years, against Cincinnati. Pittsburgh was a 12 point favorite, in 2008 at home, and beat Cincinnati 27-10. Pittsburgh is 2-0 straight up (1-1 against the spread) as a double digit favorite in games played against the Bengals.
Intangible factor(s): The Steelers are coming off of an emotional, last minute win against the Baltimore Ravens. Cincinnati happens to be sandwiched between Baltimore and the New York Jets. Classic trap game situation facing Pittsburgh? We don’t think so. In fact, we see the Bengals as mailing it in for the remainder of the 2010 season. Cincinnati is on a 9 game losing streak (2-10 record for 2010) and looks to be playing for the top pick in next year’s draft. Pittsburgh is leading the AFC North division by a game, with only three games to play, and will not take the Bengals lightly based upon the past history between the two clubs. Look for a Pittsburgh victory by at least a couple of scores.

3. GREEN BAY PACKERS

Green Bay is 18-3 straight up and 12-9, vs. the spread, the last 21 games played against Detroit (Detroit lost to Green Bay, earlier this season by the score of 28-26, but rallied to easily cover the double digit line).
Green Bay is 12-5, vs. the spread, the last 17 games played against NFC North division.
Noteworthy trend(s): Green Bay is 10-0 straight up (7-3 vs. the spread) the last 10 games played against Detroit. Green Bay’s average margin of victory (AMV) is over 13 points per game in these 10 contests. However, the AMV increases to 16 points per game if two close scoring games, settled by 2 and 3 points each, were to be removed from the analysis (including the game this season).
Noteworthy trend(s): Detroit is 0-9 vs. the spread, as an underdog of 10 or less points, when playing against an opponent with a record of .667 or better (Green Bay is 8-4 on the year).
Intangible factor(s): Green Bay has the look of a team rounding into playoff form. The Lions have played particularly well, at times this season, and have covered against the following playoff caliber teams (Chicago – both games, Philadelphia, Green Bay, New York Giants and the New York Jets). 6-0 vs. the spread and 0-6 straight up. We think that it’s time for Green Bay to step up their game and continue the pursuit of a division title. Look for the Packers to win big even though the “classic trap” game is a possibility since Green Bay finishes the season against New England, New York Giants and Chicago.

4. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Philadelphia is 6-5 straight up (7-4 vs. the spread) the last 11 games played, against the Cowboys, in Dallas. Philadelphia lost both games played in Dallas last year (SU and ATS).
Philadelphia’s average margin of victory (AMV) in these six (AWAY) victories against the Cowboys is 22 points per game. Philadelphia has won these games by the following margins: 27, 33, 24, 28, 16 and 4 points. The opening line for this game was 3.5 points.
Philadelphia is 7-1 vs. the spread the last 8 December road games they have played.
Dallas has won the last three games played against Philadelphia (all in 2009) and is 4-1, straight up, the last 5 games played between the two teams. Dallas won the two games, played last year in Dallas, by a combined score of 58-14 against Philadelphia (including a 24-0 shutout victory during the regular season).
Noteworthy trend(s): The winner of the game played between Dallas and Philadelphia has covered the spread 18 out of the last 21 games played (one of these games ended in a tie regarding the spread).
Intangible factor(s): Dallas is 3-1 straight up (4-0 vs. the spread) since Jason Garrett replaced Wade Phillips as head coach. Philadelphia is on top of the NFC East and tied with the New York Giants. A big difference from last year is that Michael Vick did not play and Tony Romo did play. Philadelphia will remember the thrashing they took in Dallas last year. This game should not even be that close. Take the Eagles in this game!

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

UNDER (47.5 total points) in the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS / ST. LOUIS RAMS game

New Orleans is 1-4, vs. the spread, against the St. Louis Rams the last 5 games played in New Orleans.
Noteworthy trend(s): The OVER the total Over and Under points has come in 7 out of the last 9 games played between New Orleans and St. Louis. The two games that went Under the total points had combined scores of 45 and 47 points. The current line for the Over and Under total points is 47 points. MJM is also taking the UNDER in this contest as our TREND BUSTER play of the week.
Intangible factor(s): Straight forward analysis would lead one to determine that the OVER play is the correct play in the Saints / Rams game. New Orleans seems to be a healthy team and has scored at least 30 points in their last four consecutive games. The Rams have given up over 30 points in 2 out of the last 3 games they have played in. We see both teams trying to establish the run in this contest and taking time off the clock. The Rams need to keep New Orleans potent passing attack off of the field and will try to run Steven Jackson. New Orleans gets their starting running back (Pierre Thomas) back from injury and will try to incorporate another feature (running) in their offense.

2. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

San Diego is 8-1 and 6-3, straight up and vs. the spread, respectively in the last 9 home games played in the month of December (including the straight up and against the spread loss to the Oakland Raiders this past week).
San Diego is 5-2 vs. the spread the last 7 home games played against Kansas City.
Noteworthy trend(s): San Diego is 0-7 coming off of a double digit, straight up loss against a divisional opponent (in the month of December). San Diego lost to Oakland, last week, by a score of 28-13).
Intangible factor(s): Kansas City’s starting QB (Matt Cassel) is out of the game due to an emergency appendectomy that was performed earlier in the week. San Diego’s defense will be able to key in on Kansas City’s one dimensional offensive attack (running the ball) and be able to come away with an easy victory.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: None for this week.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

Indianapolis Colts are 3-0 both straight up and against the spread the last 3 meetings between Indianapolis and Tennessee. The average margin of victory (AMG) is over 18 points per game for these three games. The Colts, at 6-6 on the season, appear to be in a must win situation to even have a chance at obtaining a playoff seeding. Go with the Colts in this contest.

Atlanta Falcons over the Carolina Panthers. These two teams are definitely heading in opposite directions. Atlanta has won 10 out of the last 11 games they have played. Carolina has only 1 victory this season. Carolina is starting a rookie QB while Atlanta has a seasoned, veteran team that is playing extremely well this season.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: The San Francisco 49ers are 4-10 straight up (6-8 vs. the spread) the last 14 games played against Seattle. We like the 49ers in this contest as the Seahawks are a terrible road team and should lose by a large margin.

GREEN BAY PACKERS over the Detroit Lions. Green Bay is 18-3 straight up vs. Detroit since 2000 (10-0 the last 10 games played against Detroit). However, the Lions have somewhat negated the overall lopsided win / loss category by covering 9 out of the 21 games in the above comparison. The contest has the appearance of a “classic trap” game as Detroit is 0-6 vs. 2010 playoff caliber teams, straight up, but 6-0 vs. the spread for the same 6 games. Take a chance that Vegas is not setting up the Packers for a close win against Detroit. MJM is going with the Green Bay Packers.

Week 13 (12/05/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Giving the points); 8.5 point favorite at time of publication.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Giving the points); 5.5 point favorite at time of publication.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (Getting the points); 13 point underdog at time of publication.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Getting the points); 3 point underdog at time of publication.
NEW YORK JETS (Getting the points); 3.5 point underdog at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

TENNESSEE TITANS (Giving the points); 3.5 point favorite at time of publication.
NEW YORK GIANTS (Giving the points); 7.5 point favorite at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

2. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Minnesota is 8-1 as a non conference favorite when favored by at least 3 points.
Minnesota is 8-4-1, vs. the spread, as a home favorite the last two seasons (2-2 this season).
Buffalo is 11-3, vs. the spread, the last 14 road games played in December.
Noteworthy trend(s): Buffalo is 11-2, vs. the spread, as a road underdog when getting at least 3 points and playing an opponent with a losing record. Buffalo is 1-4, straight up, on the road this season but 4-1 vs. the spread as a road underdog.
Intangible factor(s): The Bills are 2-9 straight up this season (5-4-2 vs. the spread) but have covered against New England, Baltimore, Kansas City and Pittsburgh (4 potential playoff teams for the 2010 season). Also, three of the four losses mentioned above were overtime losses. Minnesota has been dealing with injuries to Brett Favre, Sidney Rice and could face playing the Bills without a healthy Adrian Peterson (sprained ankle). However, these injuries should not impact Minnesota’s offensive scheme of pounding the ball against Buffalo. The Bills have, by far, the worst run defense in the league. Minnesota will be able to run football on plenty of occasions with either AD or his rookie backup. Brett Favre will manage the game by mixing in key passes to keep Buffalo’s defense off guard. Look for Minnesota to take advantage of Buffalo’s defensive woes and pound out a victory by at least 7 points.

3. OAKLAND RAIDERS

San Diego is 13-1 straight up and 10-4, vs. the spread, the last 14 games played against Oakland (Oakland won the first game, outright and vs. the spread, earlier this year).
San Diego is 4-0 straight up, vs. Oakland, as a double digit favorite since 2005. However, the Raiders are 3-1 vs. the spread in these 4 games played against the Chargers.
San Diego is 8-0 straight up and 6-2 vs. the spread the past 8 home games played in the month of December.
Noteworthy trend(s): San Diego is 10-1 straight up in the last 11 games played when they are a double digit favorite. However, the Chargers are only 3-8 vs. the spread as a double digit favorite over these same 11 games.
Noteworthy trend(s): Oakland is a team that covers the majority of games in which they are a double digit underdog. Oakland is 11-5, vs. the spread, as a double digit underdog the past 16 games in this position.
Intangible factor(s): Oakland won their first game, in the last 14 attempts against San Diego, earlier this season. In addition, Oakland has covered the last three games played against San Diego. We see Oakland making it 4 games in row against the Chargers. The game might be more interesting than on the surface. We see San Diego coming away with a victory (they usually play well in the month of December) with Oakland covering the 13 point spread.

4. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Pittsburgh is 1-6, straight up, the last seven games played (away) against Baltimore. However, Pittsburgh has covered in 3 of the same 7 games.
4 out of the last 10 games played by these two clubs, in Baltimore, have been settled a field goal. (10 out of the last 21 games played between Pittsburgh and Baltimore have been settled by no more than a field goal, including 4 of the last 6 games since 2008).
Baltimore is 12-6, vs. the spread, as a home favorite since 2008 (only 2-3 vs. the spread this season). Additionally, two of these losses have come against Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh has won 4 of the last 6 games played between the two teams. Both of the games that Pittsburgh lost were when Ben Roethlisberger did not play (injury in 2009 and suspension in 2010). Big Ben is dealing with an injury this week (sprained foot or worse) but should by OK to play in this grudge match.
Noteworthy trend(s): Pittsburgh is 12-2 AWAY, vs. the spread, when playing against a division opponent coming off of a straight up win.
Intangible factor(s): This game should turn out to be another classic tough, close battle between two potential playoff bound teams. First place in the AFC North is up for grab. Pittsburgh seems to have a slight edge over Baltimore in the running game category and fields a slightly more dynamic and impactful defense. We see Pittsburgh winning the game outright and covering the 3 points they are getting in this contest.

5. NEW YORK JETS

The New York Jets are 5-0, vs. the spread, as Monday Night Football underdogs (8 or less points).
New York is 10-1, vs. the spread, coming off of back to back straight up wins and playing against an opponent coming off of back to back straight up and against the spread wins.
New York is 7-3, vs. the spread AWAY, playing against New England the last 10 games. The Jets are 5-5 straight up in the above comparison.
Noteworthy trend(s): The Jets are 10-2, vs. the spread, the past 12 road games played in the month of December.
Intangible factor(s): The Jets and Patriots are playing for the best record in the NFL. Both teams are 9-2 and the winner most likely will be considered the favorite to be the AFC top seed for the playoffs. New England has one of the best QB’s in the business. The Jets seem to have better players elsewhere and on the offensive line, at running back(s) and wide receiver. On defense, there is no comparison between the two teams as the Jets have more playmakers than the Patriots. New England’s coach (Belichick) always seems to get his teams ready to perform in big games. On the other hand, we can see Rex Ryan getting his J-E-T-S players fired up to end the debate as to who is the better team. Look for the Jets to win this game and have a 2-0 record against the Patriots this season.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

TENNESSEE TITANS

Tennessee is 7-3, straight up and vs. the spread at HOME, playing against Jacksonville in the past 10 games between the two teams.
The Average Margin of Victory (AMV), in the 7 victories against the Jaguars, is more than 9 points per contest. Key: Tennessee had only one win, by less than 7 points, in the above comparison.
Noteworthy trend(s): Tennessee is 4-1, both straight up and vs. the spread, the last 5 games played against Jacksonville. Tennessee has outscored Jacksonville by a combined total of 60-16 the last two contests between the two teams. Jacksonville is 8-10, vs. the spread, as a road underdog the last 18 games played in this role. However, the Jaguars have lost their last 8 road games by an average margin of 20 points per game!
Intangible factor(s): The Titans look to rebound from last week’s embarrassing shutout loss to Houston. Kerry Collins is back from his injury and should provide some stability at the QB position to enable Chris Johnson to run all over the Jaguars. Randy Moss might get motivated to have a good game. Jacksonville plays terribly on the road and will be without one key player (starting WR Mike Sims Walker is out). We see an easy victory for the Titans this week.

2. NEW YORK GIANTS

New York is 7-2, straight up, the last 9 home games played against Washington (also 5-4 vs. the spread for these games).
New York has won 7 of the last 8 games, straight up, played vs. Washington. The Giants are 6-2 vs. the spread in the above mentioned games against Washington.
Washington is 3-2 straight up and vs. the spread (AWAY) this season. Additionally, the Redskins are 7-2-1, vs. the spread as a road underdog, since 2009 (including 3-1 straight up and vs. the spread this season).
Noteworthy trend(s): New York Giants / Washington Redskins games, played in New York, have gone UNDER the Over and Under total points in 8 of the past 10 games with another game ending in a tie regarding the Over and Under. Additionally, only one game totaled 40 or more points (last season’s 23-17 game) during this comparison. The line is currently 43.5 points at the time of this publication and has not moved this week.
Intangible factor(s): The Giants are heading towards the playoffs. Washington is not going anywhere this season and is dealing with several injuries to key players. Look for the Giants to win this game by 10 or more points.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: None (Other than the Indianapolis / Dallas game noted in the Trend Buster play(s) of the week).

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

Kansas City is 6-3-1, vs. the spread, the last 10 home games played against Denver. The Chiefs will have revenge on their minds for two reasons: 1) Denver beat them last year, in Kansas City, by a score of 44-13 and 2) Denver beat the Chiefs, again, earlier this year when the Broncos beat the Kansas City by a score of 49-29. We see the Chiefs rising to the occasion and beating Denver without too much trouble or effort. Keep an eye on the weather forecast as the elements may have an effect on the game.

Green Bay is 13-2, straight up, and 11-2-2, vs. the spread, the past 15 games played against San Francisco. We don’t see this trend changing. Green Bay should dominate this contest and beat San Francisco by 10 or more points.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: The Indianapolis Colts are 3-1, vs. the spread, the last 4 games played against the Dallas Cowboys. Additionally, Dallas has recently played poorly on the road (in the month of December). The Cowboys are 2-6 vs. the spread the past 8 road games played in December. Indianapolis has just flat out been playing poorly as of late. Injuries and unfamiliar players have contributed to Peyton Manning’s less than stellar play. Dallas is getting 5.5 points and should be able to keep the game close. We even see a small opportunity for an upset and are picking the Cowboys to be MJM’S UPSET SPECIAL of the week!!

CLEVELAND BROWNS over the Miami Dolphins. Cleveland is 1-4, straight up this season, in away games. Miami is 1-4, straight up, in home games this season. Something has got to give. We give the edge to Cleveland as they are playing solid football (especially in the running game) and won 3 out of their last 5 games (including wins against two playoff bound teams). Look for the Browns to take advantage of Miami’s star WR (Brandon Marshall) being inactive for the game. MJM is going with Cleveland.

Week 12 (11/28/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

NEW YORK GIANTS (Giving the points); 7.5 point favorite at time of publication.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Giving the points); 3.5 point favorite at time of publication.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (Getting the points); 1.5 point underdog at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

BALTIMORE RAVENS (Giving the points); 7.5 point favorite at time of publication.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (Giving the points); 2 point favorite at time of publication.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (Getting the points); 3 point underdog at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

NEW YORK GIANTS

2. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Philadelphia is 7-2, vs. the spread, the last nine games in which they have been a road favorite (including 2-1 this season).
Philadelphia is 5-2 straight up (3-4 vs. the spread) the last seven games played against Chicago. However, Philadelphia is 4-1 straight up (3-2 vs. the spread) the last five games played in Chicago. Philadelphia won last year’s game, 24-20, and covered the line.
Philadelphia is 12-2, vs. the spread, the last 14 games after playing the N. Y. Giants.
Noteworthy trend(s): Philadelphia is 11-2 (AWAY), in the month of November, coming off of back to back straight up / against the spread wins.
Intangible factor(s): The Eagles typically play well against teams from the NFC North division. Philadelphia has won, straight up, 13 of the last 17 games played against the NFC North. Mike Vick and the Eagles have been impressive on offense. The Bears have played great this season on the defensive side of the ball. We see the Eagles offense as being the better of the two and being able to put up plenty of points in what is typically a hard fought, close scoring contest between the Eagles and Bears.

3. GREEN BAY PACKERS

Atlanta is 3-2 straight up (4-1 vs. the spread) the last 5 games played against Green Bay. Also, 4 out of the last 5 games played between Atlanta and Green Bay have gone OVER the total Over and Under points.
Atlanta is 0-12, vs. the spread, coming off of back to back straight up wins and playing at HOME.
Noteworthy trend(s): Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 at HOME this season (3-2 vs. the spread). Matt Ryan is a phenomenal 18-1, at HOME, as Atlanta’s starting QB since 2008.
Noteworthy trend(s): Green Bay is 15-7, vs. the spread, as a road underdog since 2006. Additionally, Green Bay is 10-3, straight up, in dome games since 2006.
Intangible factor(s): This game could be a preview of a rematch between the two teams in the playoffs. Both teams are playing well. Both QB’s have the ability to take over a game at any point. We give the nod to the Packers QB, in this case, to pull out a victory.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore is 17-0 at Home coming off of a non conference game.
Baltimore is 5-1, as a favorite, coming off of a double digit against the spread win and playing an opponent whose record is .500 or better (Baltimore won last week’s game against Carolina, 37-13, and Tampa Bay has a record of 7-3).
Baltimore is 4-1, as a favorite, vs. an opponent that is coming off of a straight up win as an underdog (Tampa Bay was a 3.5 point underdog against San Francisco and won 21-0).
Noteworthy trend(s): Baltimore is 5-2, vs. the spread, the last 7 games played against Tampa Bay. Baltimore is also 12-2, vs. the spread at Home, when coming off of a non division game, in November, and having a .500 or better record. Pittsburgh is 7-3. Also, Tampa Bay is 3-12 (AWAY) vs. a non conference opponent.
Intangible factor(s): Tampa Bay is playing well on the road this season (4-1 record straight up and 5-0 vs. the spread). However, Tampa Bay has not won a game against a team with a winning record this season. Baltimore has the capability of rattling Tampa Bay’s young QB and forcing turnovers that lead to scoring opportunities for Baltimore’s offense. The Ravens are 12-5, vs. the spread, as a HOME favorite the last 17 games (including 2-2 vs. the spread this season as a home favorite). Look for Baltimore to win big and by at least two touchdowns!

2. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Kansas City is 5-1, vs. the spread, the last 6 games played against Seattle.
Kansas City is 4-0, vs. the spread away, coming off of a non conference game.
Intangible factor(s): Look for Kansas City to control the tempo of the game and run the football effectively against Seattle. The Chiefs rank as the top rushing offense in the NFL. Seattle typically plays well at home but the Chiefs play solid on offense and defense. The Chiefs should be able to win a close game and cover the line.

3. MIAMI DOLPHINS

Miami is 4-1, vs. the spread, the last 5 away games played in Oakland. The Dolphins also are 13-3, vs. the spread away, when playing an opponent coming off of a straight up and against the spread loss in the month of November. Miami has played well on the road this season and is 4-1 both straight up and vs. the spread as an away team. Miami away games have gone 5-0 for the UNDER the total points this season.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: The Carolina Panthers against the Cleveland Browns. See MJM's "Free Pick" of the week section for additional commentary on this game.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

Pittsburgh is 8-0 the past 8 games, vs. the spread, against Buffalo (3-0 away). Buffalo is 1-7, vs. the spread, the past 8 games as a Home underdog (including 0-2 this season). The average margin of loss is approximately 14 points per game in the 7 losses. Take the Steelers in this game as they should get off to a fast start, build a good lead and let their defense do the rest against a one dimensional offense.

Tennessee is 8-2 straight up and 7-3 vs. the spread the last 10 games played against Houston. KEY trend: 7 out of the last 9 games played by the Titans and Texans have been settled by 6 or less points. Houston is a superior team but has been on a losing streak as of late. The Texans can light up the scoreboard easily and often with their offensive players. However, we see the Titans running Chris Johnson like a horse and keeping this contest close. Take the points (currently 6.5 at time of publication) and the Tennessee Titans (possibly even in an UPSET!).

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: The Indianapolis Colts typically play poorly against the San Diego Chargers as evidenced by their 1-5 record, against the spread, the last 6 games played vs. San Diego. Also, everyone is talking about the “usual late season run” that the Chargers seem to make every year. However, Indianapolis has not had a record WORSE than 8-4 the last 8 seasons (straight up). The Colts are currently at 6-4 on the season (4-0 at home). We see the Colts hitting their “usual double digit victory total” this season. MJM’S going with the Colts this week!!

CAROLINA PANTHERS to cover the spread against the Cleveland Browns. At first, we struggled with the "Free Pick" for this week. However, we felt more comfortable as the week progressed and after receiving crucial, key injury updates regarding a couple of Browns players. Both Josh Cribbs and Colt McKoy will sit this game out. Jake Delhomme, former starting QB for the Carolina Panthers, will take over the QB duties for the Browns this week. This move potentially spells trouble for the Browns as the Panthers know Delhomme's tendencies and weaknesses better than any other team. Additionally, the Panthers have a slight trend in their favor as they are 3-0 both straight up and vs. the spread against Cleveland. The Panthers are near double digit underdogs in this contest. Cleveland should be able to win this game outright and without too much difficulty (that is, unless Delhomme forgets what team he plays on). Carolina should keep the game closer than what most people think. MJM is going with Carolina.

Week 11 (11/21/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

CLEVELAND BROWNS (Getting the points); 1.5 point underdog at time of publication.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (Getting the points); 7.5 point underdog at time of publication.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (Giving the points); 8 point favorite at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

OVER (48.5 total points) in the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES / NEW YORK GIANTS game.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (Giving the points); 11.5 point favorite at time of publication.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (Giving the points); 10 point favorite at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

CLEVELAND BROWNS

2. OAKLAND RAIDERS

Oakland has covered 4 out of the last 5 games played against Pittsburgh (3-2 straight up record). The Raiders are 3-1 vs. the spread and 2-2 straight up, against the Steelers, the last four games played in Pittsburgh.
Oakland has covered the last three games played between the two clubs. Oakland has not had a season with better than 5 victories in this comparison of the last three games played with Pittsburgh. Additionally, Oakland won two games outright as an underdog.
Pittsburgh is 3-7-1 vs. the spread, the last 11 games, as a home favorite.
Noteworthy trend(s): Pittsburgh is 9-1 vs. the spread in the 2nd of back to back home games vs. a non divisional opponent.
Intangible factor(s): The Steelers should still be considered an elite NFL team for this season. Pittsburgh has worked through several setbacks (i.e. starting the season without their talented QB (Ben Roethlisberger) and still winning, overcoming some key injuries, etc.). However, the injuries are continuing to mount and might cause Pittsburgh to play closer games than expected. The Steelers will be without their two starting defensive ends for the game against Oakland. This should enable the Raiders to run their up and coming RB (Darren McFadden) somewhat effectively against a tough Pittsburgh Steelers run defense. Additionally, Hines Ward was cleared to play after sustaining a concussion last week and the offensive line has several less than healthy players going in this game. The Steelers should win this game by 3 or 4 points. Take the Raiders and a touchdown.

3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Kansas City is 3-0 the last three home games played against Arizona (the home team is 7-1 straight up, the past 8 games, in this series).
Kansas City is 9-1 vs. the spread as non divisional favorites of 7 or more points.
Arizona is 2-7-1, vs. the spread, the last 10 AWAY games they have played.
The Cardinals are 1-4, straight up, on the road this season and have a four game losing streak going. The average margin of loss (AML), for Arizona as an away team, has been 20 points per game. The AML is actually skewed downward when factoring in Arizona’s three point overtime loss at Minnesota. Excluding the Minnesota game, Arizona has scored 7, 10 and 10 points in away losses this season.
Arizona is 2-9, vs. the spread, coming off of a straight up loss as a favorite when facing an opponent that is also coming off of a straight up loss as a favorite. Kansas City was a one point favorite, last week, and humiliated by Denver (lost 49-29) which supports the above trend. (MJM was successful in ranking Denver as a preferred play last week as providing an easy winner for our clients).
Noteworthy trend(s): There are two strong trends, involving Arizona, regarding games played in November. First, Arizona is 1-7 vs. the spread against an AFC opponent with a .500 or better records (Kansas City is currently 5-4). Second, Arizona is 2-11 against the spread vs. an opponent coming off of back to back against the spread losses.
Intangible factor(s): Todd Haley, former assistant coach with Arizona and current head coach with Kansas City, has incentive to prove he is more than capable and qualified to be a head coach. Arizona typically plays poorly on the road and Kansas City is looking to rebound from last week’s resounding loss. Look for the Chiefs to win this game by 10 or more points.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

OVER (48.5 total points) in the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES / NEW YORK GIANTS game.

Philadelphia Eagles games have gone OVER the TOTAL Over and Under line 6 out of 9 games this season (including the last five consecutive games). One game that came in Under had a total points score of 47 points (The Over & Under line for the Eagles/Giants game started at 49 points and has changed to 48.5 points).
New York Giants games have gone OVER the TOTAL Over and Under line 6 out of 9 games this season (including the last four consecutive games).
Games involving the Philadelphia Eagles / New York Giants, played in Philadelphia, have gone OVER the TOTAL Over and Under points in 5 of the last 6 games.
Noteworthy trend(s): The New York Giants have lost the last 4 games played against the Eagles (both straight up and vs. the spread). However, the Giants are 4-1, straight up, the last 5 games played in Philadelphia.
Intangible factor(s): These two teams are playing good, solid football. The Eagles ended up destroying the Washington Redskins last week (59-28) while the Giants were upset by the Cowboys (MJM Sportsline called this against the spread upset as detailed in the Week 10 Prediction analysis). Tom Coughlin will make sure that the Giants are better prepared and don’t get shown up in back to back games. Additionally, the coach might bring up the fact that the Eagles beat the Giants, 40-17, last year in Philadelphia. Take the Giants, plus the three points, in a high scoring contest.

2. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

New Orleans is 1-3 straight up and vs. the spread against Seattle in the four games the two teams played over the past 10 years. The positive news for Seattle ends with this trend. However, New Orleans is 1-0 ,with Sean Payton as head coach, against Seattle.
Seattle is 4-7, against the spread, the past 11 November road games.
New Orleans is 7-1 and 6-2, straight up and vs. the spread, respectively, the last 8 games played against NFC West teams.
Noteworthy trend(s): Seattle is a poor road team having gone 4-12 vs. the spread the last 16 away games (2 wins were vs. the St. Louis Rams and the other two occurred this season in week 6 against Chicago and week 10 against Arizona). Additionally, Seattle is a very poor road underdog. The Seahawks are 2-11 vs. the spread (and straight up) as a ROAD UNDERDOG the last 13 away games played. The average margin of LOSS (AML) for Seattle, in the 11 games when they lost, is over 21 points per game. Seattle is a currently an 11.5 point underdog against New Orleans.
Intangible factor(s): New Orleans has scored 20 or more points, only twice, at home this season. Look for the Saints to “go marching in” to the end zone on several occasions this game. Seattle’s QB (Matt Hasselbeck) is playing with a broken wrist and may not be that effective in the passing game. Seattle’s running game has not amounted to much this season. The Seahawks should have their spirit broken after this potential blowout game in the bayou. Take the Saints in what could be a laugher.

3. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

The San Diego Chargers are 6-2 straight up the last 8 games played against the Denver Broncos (6-1-1 vs. the spread).
San Diego is also 10-2 straight up the past 12 November HOME games.
The Average Margin of Victory (AMV), comparing the six San Diego wins over Denver, as mentioned above, is nearly 26 points per game! (San Diego has won by a minimum of 20 points, against Denver, in the last 5 victories by the Chargers over the Broncos).
Intangible factor(s): Look for San Diego to continue the recent domination against the Broncos. Denver might come out a little flat after their trouncing of the Kansas City Chiefs last week (49-29) as is somewhat typical for teams in a similar situation.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: The Houston Texans against the New York Jets. See MJM's Trend Buster play of the week section for additional commentary on this game.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

Baltimore is 0-3 straight up and vs. the spread against Carolina. This trend will be over after this game is played. Carolina has been battered by recent injuries. The Panthers are starting their third string RB and QB. Baltimore is an angry team coming off of a loss that involved some questionable calls going against them. Baltimore is favored by 11 points…why not more? Generally, we don’t select so many double digit favorites in a particular week. However, take Baltimore to win big this week.

San Francisco is 4-0 against Tampa Bay the last four home games played. Tampa Bay has done well this season and has an overall record of 6-3. However, Tampa loses to the teams that they are supposed to lose to (i.e. Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Atlanta) while they beat the teams they should (i.e. Carolina, Cincinnati, St. Louis). San Francisco was a preseason favorite to have a good season. The 49ers are starting to take on the look of a good team. Take the 49ers, in this game, and give the 3 points as Tampa does not have a good overall record of playing teams on the West Coast.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: Take UNDER 45.5 points in the New York Jets / Houston Texans game. Games involving the Houston Texans have gone OVER the total over and under points 6 out of 9 times this season. Additionally, the three UNDER plays totaled 40, 44 and 47 points involving the Texans. Games involving the New York Jets have gone OVER the total over and under points 7 out of 9 times this season. Both games that went UNDER the total points were Jets HOME losses (Baltimore and Green Bay). Look for Houston to keep it close against the Jets and take the Texans plus the seven points as MJM’S UPSET SPECIAL of the week!!

TENNESSEE TITANS over the Washington Redskins. Tennessee is 6-1, against the spread, the last 7 games vs. Washington. Also, Tennessee is 12-4, against the spread, the last 16 games played against NFC East teams. MJM is going with Tennessee.

Week 10 (11/14/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (Giving the points); 7 point favorite at time of publication.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Giving the points); 1 point favorite at time of publication.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Getting the points); 4.5 point underdog at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

HOUSTON TEXANS (Getting the points); 2 point underdog at time of publication.
DENVER BRONCOS (Getting the points); 1 point underdog at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indianapolis is 5-1, vs. the spread, against Cincinnati the last six games played between the two teams (Indianapolis is also 4-1 at Home the last 5 home games played against the Bengals).
Indianapolis and Cincinnati have played four times over the last 8 years. Indianapolis is a perfect 4-0 straight up (3-1 vs. the spread) in these games. None of the four games was by decided by less than 7 points (the opening / current line on the game has the Colts favored by 7 points).
The average margin of victory (AMG), for Indianapolis in these four victories against Cincinnati, is over 16 points per game.
Noteworthy trend(s): The Indianapolis Colts are 9-0 straight up (8-1 vs. the spread) the last 9 November home games.
Intangible factor(s): Cincinnati is 2-6 vs. straight up and vs. the spread this season. The Bengals have only covered in the games they won. We don’t see the Bengals winning and we don’t see them covering the 7 point spread. Indianapolis is 3-0 both straight up and vs. the spread in Home games this season. The Colts have won by 24, 10 and 13 point margins in their home victories this season.

2. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Minnesota has lost 9 out of the last 10 road games played, dating to the 2009 season, and they are also 3-7 vs. the spread for these games. Two of the three covers were against the Saints (last season’s NFC Championship game and the 2010 season opener).
Minnesota is 1-8 straight up (2-7 vs. the spread) the last nine games played in Chicago.
Noteworthy trend(s): The HOME team is 14-2 straight up the past 16 times in this series.
Intangible factor(s): The last three Chicago games have been settled by a field goal (two of these games were home losses against Washington and Seattle). Minnesota received an uplifting boost with a come from behind, overtime victory last week. Minnesota has too much talent on their roster not to be able to overcome their recent poor play on the road. Minnesota is favored by a point this game. Take the Vikings and give them one last chance to redeem themselves. Minnesota is MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week.

3. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

New England is 5-1, vs. the spread, the last six games played in Pittsburgh. New England is also 7-2, overall vs. the spread, the last nine games played against Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh is 3-6-1 vs. the spread, the last 10 games, as a home favorite.
New England has lost back to back regular season games twice in the last seven years (2006 and 2009). In addition, the Patriots lost the second game, of consecutive losses, by 3 points and 1 point.
Noteworthy trend(s): Pittsburgh is 1-10, vs. the spread, at Home after coming off of a Monday Night football game.
Intangible factor(s): These two clubs, overall, are playing good, solid ball. New England has something to prove after being trounced by Cleveland Browns while Pittsburgh needs to correct the breakdown(s) that almost cost them a victory, against Cincinnati, after nearly blowing a 20 point lead in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh should win this game even though they don’t have a good track record against the Patriots. However, we see a close game and outcome (3 or 4 point victory for either team) as Bill Belichick rarely gets shown up two weeks in a row (especially on national TV).

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

HOUSTON TEXANS

Jacksonville is 4-1 straight up, 2-3 vs. the spread, the last 5 Home games played against Houston.
Jacksonville has lost four November home games in a row (both straight up and vs. the spread).
Noteworthy trend(s): Houston is 9-3 against the spread the past 12 November road games. Also, Houston is 13-3 as an underdog following back to back straight up losses and playing a divisional opponent.
Intangible factor(s): Both teams have awful defenses. However, Houston has “better” players that are, unfortunately, playing terribly on defense. Houston also has better skill players (i.e. QB Matt Schaub, RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson) who can put up points quickly. Houston should be able to get back on track and post a win against the Jaguars. Take Houston and the two points they are getting as an underdog.

2. DENVER BRONCOS

Denver is 8-1 straight up (6-3 vs. the spread) the last 9 HOME games played against Kansas City.
The Average Margin of Victory (AMG), comparing the most recent trend mentioned above, is approximately 14 points per game (Denver has beaten Kansas City by at least 10 points in 5 out of the 8 victories mentioned above).
Intangible factor(s): Denver tends to play Kansas City well at home. Additionally, Denver lost their last home game, which was also their last game of the 2009 season, to Kansas City by the score of 44-24. This blowout will be remembered when the two clubs play in this divisional matchup.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: The Dallas Cowboys against the New York Giants. See MJM's Trend Buster play of the week section for additional commentary on this game.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

Buffalo and Detroit will not draw that much viewer attention. The Bills are 0-8 overall this season but a decent 3-4-1 vs. the spread. Buffalo has covered the line against New England, Baltimore and Kansas City (three potential 2010 playoff teams). Detroit is 2-6 straight up but a very impressive 7-1 record vs. the spread on the season. However, Detroit has lost 24 consecutive road games dating back to the 2007 season. Matthew Stafford, Detroit’s potential star QB, is out for the remainder of the year. Detroit has some other good skill players but will miss not having Stafford in the lineup. Buffalo should come away with their first win this season. Take BUFFALO, in this matchup, and give the two points to one of the worst road teams (Seattle can also be included) that we have seen in years.

The New York Giants are playing good football on both sides of the ball. However, the Dallas Cowboys should be able to keep this game relatively close and cover the line (13 points at the time of publication). We see the recent change in Cowboys head coaches as being enough motivation for the underperforming Cowboys to keep this game close. Take the DALLAS COWBOYS plus the near two touchdown spread.

The Philadelphia Eagles are 3-1, both straight up and vs. the spread, the last 4 AWAY games played against the Washington Redskins. The Redskins are 1-7, vs. the spread, as a divisional Home Underdog. There seems to be some turmoil, in Washington, which may lead to further distractions / dissension in the near future (i.e. Donovan McNabb’s benching, losing to the Detroit Lions, etc.). Also, Philadelphia is generating impressive offensive statistics and should continue against a porous Washington Redskins defense. Philadelphia is favored by 3.5 points in this contest. Take the Eagles in this game!

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: The Minnesota Vikings over the Chicago Bears. Also, the Dallas Cowboys are the other “Trend Buster” play of the week. The Dallas Cowboys are 3-4 straight up and 2-5 vs. the spread the last 7 games played (AWAY) against the New York Giants. However, an intangible factor (see above commentary) of possible further coaching and player changes should enable the Cowboys to keep the game close. We see the Giants as winning a competitive game by less than a touchdown. The Dallas Cowboys are also MJM’S UPSET SPECIAL of the week!!

BALTIMORE RAVENS over the Atlanta Falcons. We have been playing “on” both of these teams several times this season. Baltimore plays tough on the road and has a couple of impressive (away) victories against the Jets and Steelers. Atlanta has played well (4-0 straight up) at home this season. Matt “Matty Ice” Ryan is a calm, cool and collected QB who has led the Falcons to a 17-1 record when he starts at home. We give the nod to Baltimore for several factors. The Ravens have Ed Reed back patrolling the field behind Ray Lewis and friends. He is a game changer. Also, Atlanta’s top WR, Roddy White, could be hindered by a bum knee. Atlanta’s RB, Michael Turner, will have a tough go against Baltimore’s run defense. Ray Rice and Joe Flacco should be able to lead Baltimore to several scores and enable the defense to do the rest to stop Atlanta and earn another road victory. MJM is going with Baltimore.

MJM SPORTSLINE will occasionally offer an additional “FREE PICK” given certain circumstances. We feel that the several blatant bad calls or lack of making the correct calls affected the finish of the Atlanta / Baltimore game, in a negative way, for our potential customers and existing clients. Therefore, we are offering a second “FREE PICK” for week 10. MJM is going with New England. There are several key trends suggesting that the Patriots will, AT LEAST, cover the line in this game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. A complete analysis is offered to members of MJM Sportsline via our “Members” page.

Week 9 (11/07/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

NEW YORK JETS (Giving the points); 4 point favorite at time of publication.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (Giving the points); 5.5 point favorite at time of publication.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (Getting the points); 2.5 point underdog at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (Giving the points); 6.5 point favorite at time of publication.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (Getting the points); 8.5 point underdog at time of publication.
OVER (46.5) total points in the PHILADELPHIA / INDIANAPOLIS game.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Giving the points); 4.5 point favorite at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

NEW YORK JETS

New York Jets are 5-1 vs. the spread, as an away favorite, the last 6 road games played.
New York is 3-1 vs. the spread the last 4 games played against Detroit (also 3-1 AWAY).
New York is 9-1 vs. the spread (AWAY) vs. a non division opponent (in November).
Detroit is 0-5 vs. the spread after scoring 35 or more points in a game (Detroit beat the Washington Redskins, 37-25, last week).
Detroit is 0-9 vs. the spread when playing a team with a winning record percentage of at least .667 AND when Detroit is an underdog of 10 or less points (The New York Jets have a record of 5-2 this year which is a winning percentage of .714).
Noteworthy trend(s): Detroit is 1-7 coming off of a double digit straight up and against the spread win. However, Detroit is 6-1 vs. the spread this season and probably should be 7-0 as the one loss against the spread was by a 3 point margin to Minnesota Vikings.

2. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore is 3-1 straight up (2-2 vs. the spread) the last 4 games played against Miami.
Baltimore is 11-5, vs. the spread, as a HOME favorite the last 16 games (including 1-2 vs. the spread this season as a home favorite).
All three Baltimore HOME games have gone OVER the total Over and Under points; All four Baltimore away games have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points this season.
Miami is 4-0 in AWAY games played this season (straight up and vs. the spread). Miami has been an underdog in three of these games.
All four Miami AWAY games have gone UNDER the total Over and Under points; All three Miami home games have gone OVER the total Over and Under points this year.
Miami has lost all three games played at home this season (1-2 vs. the spread).
Noteworthy trend(s): Miami is 13-3 (including 3-0 this season), vs. the spread, as an away underdog since the 2008 season.
Intangible factor(s): Both Baltimore and Miami have some impressive statistical trends to compare. Baltimore tends to play well after having a bye week. The Ravens should be well rested and healthy. Miami has played great on the road this season. We see a win for Baltimore (7 to 10 point victory) as the Ravens put an end to the Miami road magic.

3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Kansas City is 7-0 straight up and vs. the spread, against the Oakland Raiders, the last seven games played AWAY in Oakland.
Most of the games played in Oakland are close with the following winning margins, the last seven games, of 6,7,2,11,6,7 and 7 points in favor of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City is 4-0 against the spread coming off of a straight up win but against the spread loss.
9 out of the last 10 games, in this series, have gone UNDER the total Over/Under points.
Noteworthy trend(s): The visitor in the Oakland / Kansas City series is 8-0, against the spread, the last 8 games played between the two teams.
Intangible factor(s): Both teams run the ball extremely well (Kansas City leads the league in rushing offense and Oakland is second). However, Oakland’s rushing defense is near the bottom of the league rankings (25th overall) and could give up some big plays to the Chiefs running back duo. Oakland also has two key injuries to starting players on both sides of the ball. Oakland’s shut down CB (Asomugha) likely will not play which could help Kansas City open up the passing game. Zach Miller, Oakland’s TE, is also injured and may not be effective against the Chiefs.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

New Orleans is 6-2 vs. the spread, the last 8 away games, played against Carolina. However, New Orleans is only 4-4 straight up in these games (and has lost 3 of the last 4 games, outright, played in Carolina).
New Orleans is 10-2 (AWAY), vs. the spread, coming off of a double digit, straight up and against the spread win (New Orleans beat Pittsburgh 20-10 last week).
Noteworthy trend(s): Carolina is 2-10 vs. the spread, in the month of November as an underdog, versus an opponent coming off of playing an AFC team the prior week (New Orleans played Pittsburgh last week).
Intangible factor(s): Prior to the 2009 season, New Orleans and Carolina split the season series regarding covering the spread for seven consecutive seasons. That is, regardless of the outright winner of the game, each team covered a game in the series. This trend was broken last season as Carolina covered both games (However, each team won a game outright last season).

2. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Tampa Bay is 5-1 vs. the spread the last 6 games played against Atlanta (including 3-0 vs. the spread when playing away in Atlanta). Atlanta has won the last three games played against Tampa Bay (straight up).
Tampa Bay is 7-2 vs. the spread, against Atlanta, the last 9 games played in Atlanta.
3 of the last 5 games played between Tampa Bay and Atlanta (in Atlanta) were won by a field goal margin.
Noteworthy trend(s): The Over and Under total points play has an interesting trend that has taken place over the last 7 seasons. Whatever the total is in the first game between Tampa Bay and Atlanta (either Over or Under) will also be the outcome in game two. For example, both games went Under the total last season and 2008, Over the total in 2007, Under the total in 2006, etc.
Intangible factor(s): Tampa Bay is currently 5-2 on the season (4-3 against the spread). Tampa Bay Bucs victories have come against teams that have the following records: 2-5, 1-5, 2-4, 3-4 and 3-4. In fact, Tampa’s combined margin of victory in four of their five wins this season is 10 total points. Tampa Bay has kept the games close against equal or less talented teams. Tampa Bay has been outscored 69-19 against two quality teams (Pittsburgh and New Orleans) earlier this season. Atlanta is a far superior team when compared to Tampa Bay. However, the Bucs just seem to find a way to keep the score close between these two clubs.

3. OVER (46.5) total points in the PHILADELPHIA / INDIANAPOLIS game.

Philadelphia Eagles games have gone OVER the total Over and Under line 4 out of 7 games this season (including the last three games). One game that came in Under had a total points score of 47 points (The Over and Under line for the Indianapolis game is 46.5 points).
Indianapolis Colts games have gone OVER the total Over and Under line 4 out of 7 games this season (including 3 out of 4 AWAY games).
Philadelphia and Indianapolis have played twice, in the last 10 years, with both games going OVER the total Over and Under points (lowest total score was 48 points in these two games).
Indianapolis is 4-0 the last four games played against Philadelphia (3-0 the last three games played away).

4. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Pittsburgh is 8-2 both straight up and vs. the spread, against Cincinnati, the last 10 games played in Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh’s average margin of victory (AMV) is over 14 points per game against Cincinnati (when referencing Pittsburgh’s last eight wins in Cincinnati). Additionally, no Steelers victory against the Bengals was by less than 5 points, during this comparison, with other winning margins totaling 20, 27, 7, 14, 6, 11 and 28 points in the seven other games. The opening line / spread on the game is Pittsburgh favored by 4.5 points.
Pittsburgh is 5-0 vs. the spread, after scoring less than 14 points, and playing against an opponent coming off of back to back straight up losses (Cincinnati has actually lost four consecutive games).
Noteworthy trend(s): Cincinnati is 3-15 (HOME) vs. a divisional opponent coming off of a straight up loss (Pittsburgh lost to New Orleans this past Sunday Night).

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: Cleveland Browns against the New England Patriots. See MJM's Trend Buster play of the week section for additional commentary on this game.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

Oakland / Kansas City games recently have tended to be low scoring contests and have gone UNDER the total Over / Under line 9 of the last 10 times the two teams have played each other. The Over / Under line for this game opened at 40.5 points and hasn’t changed. 1 out of the last 10 games, in this series, has gone over 40 total points scored. MJM likes the UNDER play in this contest.

The New York Giants are playing good football on both sides of the ball. Eli Manning has had several good passing games against Seattle, Ahmad Bradshaw is racking up good yardage as the primary Giants RB and New York’s pass rush is playing dominant football. Seattle, on the other hand, is dealing with key injuries. Hasselbeck will not play against New York as he has a concussion. Seattle’s top receiving threat is injured. Seattle does seem to play decently at home. However, we see the Giants covering the line (7 points at time of publication) and winning this game without much difficulty.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: The Cleveland Browns are 0-4, straight up and against the spread, the last 4 games played against New England. New England is favored by 4.5 points. This game has all of the classic signs of a trap game. The Patriots have the best record in the NFL at 6-1. New England also leads the league in scoring. However, the Browns are still riding high off of their big upset victory against the Saints. The Patriots should easily win this game. We see a closer scoring game, than most expect, being the final result. Take the Cleveland Browns plus the points as MJM’S UPSET SPECIAL of the week!!

MINNESOTA VIKINGS over the Arizona Cardinals. Minnesota is 4-1, vs. the spread, the last 5 home games played against Arizona. Brett Favre is still dealing with injuries and has only three healthy receivers for the game. This situation shouldn’t hinder Minnesota as Adrian Peterson should run all over the Cardinals “ALL DAY” long. Minnesota also will remember their upset loss in the desert, to Arizona, last year and play some inspired ball! We see a Minnesota victory by at least 13 points. MJM is going with Minnesota.

Week 8 (10/31/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (Giving the points); 5.5 point favorite at time of publication.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (Giving the points); 2.5 point favorite at time of publication.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (Getting the points); 6 point underdog at time of publication.
DALLAS COWBOYS (Giving the points); 6.5 point favorite at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

OVER (49.5) points in the INDIANAPOLIS / HOUSTON game.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (Giving the points); 3 point favorite at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indianapolis is 8-0 straight up (4-4 vs. the spread) playing at HOME against the Houston Texans (only an 8 year trend as Houston was an expansion team in the 2002 season).
Indianapolis is 15-2 straight up vs. Houston (all time). The Colts lost to Houston in 2006 and in week 1 of this season.
The Average Margin of Victory (AMG), for Indianapolis when comparing their 8 home victories against Houston, is over 15 points per contest.
Houston is 10-7 vs. the spread, against the Colts, (including both a straight up and vs. the spread winner against the Colts in their week 1 game this season).
Noteworthy trend: 11 of the last 13 games have gone OVER the total Over / Under line (including OVER in the game played earlier this season between the Colts and Texans).

2. OAKLAND RAIDERS

Oakland is 5-0 both straight and vs. the spread the last 5 HOME games played against Seattle. (Oakland is also 7-3 vs. the spread the last 10 overall games played vs. Seattle).
Oakland and Seattle were AFC West divisional rivals prior to the new league alignment which took place in 2002. Seattle typically won close games, against the Raiders, when played in Seattle. Oakland demonstrated more dominance, including an average margin of victory (AMG) of 22 points per game, the last three home games against Seattle.
Noteworthy trend(s): Seattle is a poor road team having gone 3-11 vs. the spread the last 14 away games (2 wins were vs. the St. Louis Rams and the other was in week 6 of this season against Chicago). Additionally, Seattle is a very poor road underdog. Seattle is 1-10 vs. the spread (and straight up) as a ROAD UNDERDOG the last 11 away games played. The average margin of LOSS (AML) for Seattle, in the 10 games when they lost, is over 20 points per game. Seattle is a currently a 2.5 point underdog against Oakland.

3. GREEN BAY PACKERS

Green Bay is 12-3 vs. opponents who are coming off of their bye week. New York Jets had their bye last week.
Green Bay is 8-3 vs. the spread, the last 11 road games, played in month of October.
Noteworthy trend(s): New York Jets are both 5-1 straight up and vs. the spread in the six games they have played this season. The Jets lost in week 1 by a point to Baltimore for their only straight up and against the spread loss this season.
5 of the 7 Green Bay Packers games, played this season, have been settled by a total of 4 or less points. Green Bay is 2-3 straight up in these close games and they have lost all three games by a field goal. Two of these losses have come in overtime. Green Bay, at the time of this publication, was a six point underdog.
Intangible factor(s): The New York Jets are on a roll having won their last five games both straight up and against the spread. The Jets have a complete team with the offense and defense performing well. However, even the best teams tend to have a letdown at some point, during the season, and also during any particular week. MJM Sportsline envisions a possible upset, this week, with Green Bay beating the Jets. In all likelihood, the Jets will win at home by a 3 or 4 point margin. Green Bay has been decimated by key injuries, to top starters on offense and defense, this season. The Packers have played some inspired football and have kept the majority of their games close. The key for a Packers upset victory (or cover against the spread) will be to establish somewhat of a decent running game with success on first and / or second down. Success in their run game will provide Green Bay’s QB an effective way to manage a winning game plan designed to beat the Jets.

4. DALLAS COWBOYS

Dallas is 16-3, vs. the spread, after allowing 35 or more points in the previous game. The New York Giants put up 41 points on them last week (Monday Night Football) in a 41-35 defeat for Dallas.
Jacksonville has lost their last two games by a combined score of 72-23. In fact, all four of Jacksonville’s losses this season were by a combined score of 138-39. That is, when the Jaguars lose…they lose BIG! Jacksonville’s Average Margin of Loss (AML) this season is approximately 25 points per loss. Jacksonville’s losses have been by 25, 25, 27 and 22 points. Two games involving Jacksonville losses went Over the total Over / Under points.
Jacksonville is 6-11, vs. the spread, as an away underdog (including 1-2 both straight up and vs. the spread this season as an away underdog) since 2008.
Jacksonville is 12-27 overall vs. the spread, since 2008, including 3-4 this season.
Noteworthy trend(s): There are two negative trends regarding Dallas. First, Dallas is 1-7, at home, after playing the Giants. Second, Dallas is 1-5 after scoring 35 or more points and playing against an opponent who is coming off of a double digit straight up loss.
Intangible factor(s): Dallas and Jacksonville have had recent injuries to their starting QB’s (and collective ego’s). David Garrard should get the nod to start against Dallas this week. Tony Romo will be out (at least 6 weeks due to his broken clavicle) and should make good use of his time shopping for a couple of new hats/caps (Fedora a possibility)? Dallas has talent but might be on the verge of a major collapse. Can Dallas, a preseason favorite to be a potential Super Bowl team, actually lose their first 4 home games in this nightmare season? MJM doesn’t think so. Go with the Cowboys to win by 14 or more points. Dallas will “TREAT” the Jaguars to a royal whipping on Halloween day!

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

OVER (49.5) points in the INDIANAPOLIS / HOUSTON game.

11 of the last 13 games have gone OVER the total Over and Under line (including OVER in the game played earlier this season) between the Colts and Texans.
Indianapolis and Houston games have gone OVER the Over and Under total points line, in each of their respective 6 games, in 4 of the 6 games played this season.
Noteworthy trend: Indianapolis games have gone OVER the total points in 9 of 11 games after a Colts bye week. Both Indy and Houston had their bye week last week.

2. ARIZONA CARDINALS

Arizona is 3-1 vs. the spread, against Tampa Bay, the last 4 games played between the two teams.
Arizona is 5-1 vs. the spread, the following game played, after having scored 10 or less points in their previous game. Arizona lost, 22-10, to Seattle last week.
Arizona is 7-1 vs. the spread, as a favorite, following a double digit against the spread loss (see last week’s 22-10 loss to Seattle; Arizona was a 7 point underdog that game).
Tampa Bay is 1-6 vs. the spread the last 7 away games played vs. NFC West teams.
Intangible factor(s): Tampa Bay is currently 4-2 on the season (3-3 against the spread). Tampa Bay Bucs victories have come against teams that have the following records: 2-5, 1-5, 2-4 and 3-4. In fact, Tampa’s combined margin of victory in three of their four wins this season is 7 total points. Arizona should be able to run on Tampa Bay’s 29th ranked run defense and also be able to cover the line (currently 3 points) against the Bucs.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: Minnesota Vikings against the New England Patriots. Miami Dolphins against the Cincinnati Bengals is a also consideration.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

St Louis / Carolina games have gone UNDER the total Over / Under line 5 of the last 7 times they have played. An opposite trend involves the Rams and the Over / Under line. The Rams are on a bye next week and 9 out of the last 10 games, played by the Rams prior to their bye week, have gone OVER the total Over and Under line. Also, both teams have starting running backs that are banged up. The Rams (Steven Jackson) had surgery to repair a broken ring finger earlier this week. The Panthers starter (DeAngelo Williams) is doubtful. The Rams defense has begun to play better than in the recent past. St. Louis games have gone UNDER in 5 of 7 games this season (including 3 of 4 games played at home). MJM likes the UNDER play in this contest (currently 37 points).

Tennessee is 0-6, vs. the spread, against San Diego the last six games the teams have played. However, Tennessee is also 6-2 vs. the spread prior to their bye week (which is next week) the past 8 games. Tennessee, a 3.5 point underdog, should be able to keep it close against San Diego. Tennessee’s RB (Chris Johnson) should also be able to do well and is overdue for a bust out game. Go with Tennessee in this contest.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: The Minnesota Vikings have lost 8 of their last 9 away games, straight up, dating back to the 2009 season. The lone victory within this streak was a win against Green Bay last season. The win somewhat factors into our decision to make the Vikings this week’s Trend Buster play of the week. We see many individuals siding with New England since Brett Favre is dealing with several injuries and also with Minnesota playing poorly on the road and, in general, under achieving this season. The Vikings will be out to prove something this week and play more inspired (especially after a poor call, in last week’s game against Green Bay, potentially cost them a victory). Essentially, the Vikings had a touchdown called back (incorrectly). As a result, Minnesota ended up kicking a field goal to lead by 3 instead of 7 prior to halftime. Momentum was lost and the Vikings eventually lost the contest 28-24. Randy Moss should also be on a mission to prove that New England was way off base in trading Moss a couple of weeks ago. Go with the Vikings to at least cover the spread (currently 6 points). The Vikings are also MJM’S UPSET SPECIAL of the week!!

MIAMI DOLPHINS over the Cincinnati Bengals. Miami is 6-2 vs. the spread the last 8 games played against the Bengals. Miami is also 5-1, vs. the spread, the last 6 games played away at Cincinnati. The Bengals have lost three straight games (including back to back losses against Cleveland and Tampa Bay). MJM is going with Miami.

Week 7 (10/24/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

ATLANTA FALCONS (Giving the points); 3.5 point favorite at time of publication.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Giving the points); 3 point favorite at time of publication.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Getting the points); 3 point underdog at time of publication.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Getting the points); 3 point underdog at time of publication.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (Getting the points); 6 point underdog at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (Giving the points); 13 point favorite at time of publication.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (Giving the points); 3 point favorite at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

ATLANTA FALCONS

Atlanta is 6-2 vs. the spread as a home favorite the last 8 games (1-1 in 2010).
Atlanta is 7-0, vs. the spread at home and in the month of October, when they have had a .500 or better record and are playing a sub .500 record opponent (Atlanta is 4-2 and Cincinnati is 2-3 on the season).
Atlanta is 7-2, against the spread, the last nine games before their bye week.
Atlanta is 4-1, vs. the spread as a favorite, when playing an opponent that is coming off of a straight up favorite loss (Cincinnati was favored against Tampa Bay and lost prior to their bye week last week).
Cincinnati is 3-8-1, vs. the spread, the past 12 road games played in October.
Atlanta Falcons / Cincinnati Bengals have only played twice in the last 10 years with Cincinnati losing both games straight up and against the spread.

2. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Pittsburgh is 4-0 straight and 3-1 vs. the spread the last 4 games played against Miami.
Pittsburgh is 5-0 vs. the spread, as a 9 or less point favorite, when Pittsburgh plays after a divisional home game. Pittsburgh was at home against Cleveland last week. Pittsburgh was an MJM TOP PLAY OF THE WEEK last week and won outright and vs. the spread!
Miami is 5-9-1, vs. the spread, as a Home Underdog since 2007.
Noteworthy trend: Miami is 1-9 vs. the spread vs. a non divisional opponent with a record of .750 or better. Pittsburgh, at 4-1, has a winning percentage of .800.
Miami is 1-7 vs. the spread, at home, coming off of a straight up win as an underdog.

3. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Philadelphia is 0-3 straight up vs. Tennessee since 2000. However, two of these games were settled by 2 and 3 points. The current line is Philadelphia getting 3 points.
Philadelphia is 7-0 as an underdog coming off of back to back straight up and against the spread wins. The Eagles beat both San Francisco and Atlanta the last two weeks.
Tennessee is 2-7 against the spread the past 9 October home games played.
Noteworthy trend: Tennessee is 0-7 vs. the spread after playing a “Monday Night Football” game.
Intangible factor(s): Both teams have had to deal with injuries to their starting quarterbacks in recent weeks. However, we view Philadelphia as having an easier transition in going from QB 1A to QB 1B (Kolb and Vick can perform at exceptional levels) than Tennessee. The Titans might be without Vince Young under center. MJM doesn’t view Kerry Collins as a viable solution. The Eagles will keep Chris Johnson contained.

4. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Minnesota is only 3-7 straight up vs. Green Bay the last 10 regular season games played in Green Bay. However, the Vikings are 7-3 vs. the spread the last 10 games played in Green Bay.
Minnesota has lost 6 consecutive road games dating back to the 2009 season.
Minnesota is 0-7, as an underdog in the month of October, when their record is below .500 and playing against an opponent off of a straight up loss.
Noteworthy trend(s): Minnesota is 1-7 as an underdog and playing against an opponent coming off of a straight up loss as a favorite.
Intangible factor: Both teams have played well below expectations this season and may be in jeopardy of missing out of the NFC playoff race. Minnesota has the edge in that they are a healthier team than Green Bay. Also, adding a viable weapon (Randy Moss) to help out the Vikings passing offense will pay dividends in the second half of the season. Brett Favre’s a gamer and typically has great outings when he is in the spotlight, facing adversity and / or both. Brett Favre is probably playing his last regular season game in Green Bay (PROBABLY??). We don’t think that Favre and the Vikings will come away as anything other than winners in this game. The Vikings are MJM’s “Trend Buster Play of the Week” and a also a “Top Play”. The “Favre Factor” is alive and well in GB!

5. ARIZONA CARDINALS

Arizona is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread the last 4 games vs. Seattle.
The average margin of victory (AMV) in the above mentioned 4 games is 13.5 points.
Noteworthy trend(s): Arizona is 7-0 coming off of a bye week vs. an opponent who had a straight up and against the spread win; Arizona is 7-1 vs. the spread playing a division opponent coming off of a straight up win. The Cardinals are 7-0 away vs. an opponent coming off of a straight up win as an underdog.
Intangible factor: Seattle has played impressively at home this season (having won both games by scores of 31-6 and 27-20 and as an underdog in both games). Arizona, on the other hand, has played horribly on the road this season with the exception of an opening game win against St. Louis. Arizona has lost their other two road games by scores of 41-7 and 41-10. We still see Arizona as being a good play and possible outright winner in this game as they play Seattle well in head to head competition.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

New Orleans is 5-1 vs. the spread when coming off of a straight up win of 21 or more points. The Saints destroyed Tampa Bay last week by a score of 31-6. The game wasn’t even competitive. The Saints win was a “FREE PICK” play for MJM Sportsline clients and prospective customers and put our winning percent at 85% for free picks on the season.
Cleveland is 0-4 as a double digit underdog (currently 13 points) coming off of a double digit against the spread loss (Pittsburgh, an MJM “Top Play” winner in week 6, beat the Browns 28-10 to cover the 14 point spread).
Noteworthy trend: Cleveland is 1-9 vs. the spread coming off of a straight up loss and playing an opponent coming of a double digit straight up win (in the month of October).

2. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Tampa Bay is 6-1, vs. the spread, against the St. Louis Rams the last 7 games played between the two clubs.
Tampa Bay is 11-2 as a Home favorite after scoring less than 14 points in their previous game (Tampa Bay lost to New Orleans 31-6 last week). Tampa Bay is a 3 point favorite.
Intangible factor(s): The Bucs have already won as many games in 2010 as they did in all of 2009 (3). Tampa Bay is still in a rebuilding mode as their three wins this season have come against teams with records of 1-5, 0-5 and 2-3. The Bucs have already lost two games at home (against Pittsburgh and New Orleans) by a combined score of 69-19. Tampa Bay should be able to outplay a dome team, in the heat and on a slower surface.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: None for this week with the exceptions of the three "Top Play" underdogs.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

(OVER 47.5 points) in the San Diego / New England game; The last six San Diego Home games have gone OVER the total Over and Under points. 4 out of 5 games, played by New England, have gone OVER the total Over and Under points this season.

Washington is 7-2, vs. the spread, the last 9 games against Chicago; 6-0 the last 6 away.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: Two of our selections can qualify for the Trend Buster play of the week. Look for the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys to win outright.

DALLAS COWBOYS. What?? Dallas is 1-4 on the season and in dire need of a victory to save face (playoff talk can come later). The Cowboys are 1-4 both straight up and vs. the spread the last 5 games played against the New York Giants. Dallas typically plays well as a home favorite, vs. the spread, having gone 19-14 the last 4 seasons. Dallas is 6-0 at home coming off of back to back straight up and against the spread losses. The Cowboys are 0-2 as a home favorite this season and won’t be 0-3. MJM is going with Dallas.

Week 6 (10/17/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Giving the points); 2.5 point favorite at time of publication.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (Getting the points); 2.5 point underdog at time of publication.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Giving the points); 13.5 point favorite at time of publication.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Giving the points); 1.5 point favorite at time of publication.
DENVER BRONCOS (Getting the points); 3 point underdog at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

UNDER 42.5 points in the PHILADELPHIA / ATLANTA game.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (Giving the points); 3 point favorite at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Philadelphia is 7-1 straight up and 6-2 vs. the spread against Atlanta the last 8 games played (covering the last 10 years).
Philadelphia is 5-0 and 4-1, straight up and vs. the spread, respectively against Atlanta at HOME. Two of these victories, both SU and ATS, were in playoff games.
Philadelphia and Atlanta typically play games that finish with the UNDER play coming through when comparing the Over and Under total points scored. 6 out of the last 7 games have resulted in the UNDER play with the different game being an O/U tie.
None of the above mentioned games played totaled more than 41 points scored in any contest. The current Over / Under line is 42.5 points.
The average margin of victory is 16 points in contests won by the Eagles (the last 7 wins) against the Falcons. The average is also 16 points for Eagles home wins vs. Atlanta.
Philadelphia is 9-5, vs. the spread, as a HOME FAVORITE the last two years.

2. BALTIMORE RAVENS

New England is 6-1 straight up the past 7 games against Baltimore.
New England is 4-1 vs. the spread, AT HOME, the last 5 games vs. Baltimore.
The Patriots were 1-3, straight up and vs. the spread, when favored by 3 or less points in a game (2009 season). New England was 1-1 vs. Baltimore, SU & ATS, in these games.
Noteworthy Trend: New England is 6-2 vs. the spread, the first game back after their bye week, the last 8 seasons. BALTIMORE is MJM’s “Trend Buster Play of the Week”.
Intangible factor: This will be New England’s first game without Randy Moss at WR. The Ravens play well against the pass and should be able to contain Wes Welker and others.

3. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Pittsburgh is 17-2 straight up and 11-6-2 vs. the spread the past nineteen games played between the Steelers and the Browns. Pittsburgh had won 12 consecutive games vs. Cleveland prior to losing the last game between the two teams in 2009.
Cleveland has covered the spread 4 out of the last 5 games vs. Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh’s one cover in the last five games was a 31-0 shutout in 2008.
Pittsburgh has held the Browns to 7 or fewer points in 8 out of the last 19 games that they have played (3 games were shutout victories). Pittsburgh is 7-1 vs. the spread in these games.
Pittsburgh has had 10 wins by a double digit margin against Cleveland over the past 19 games. The average margin of victory (AMV) in these 10 games was over 21 points! The AMV in the last six Pittsburgh HOME victories, in this series, is 15 plus points.
Noteworthy trend: Pittsburgh is 5-1 at home, vs. the spread, against division opponents that have a .500 record or worse the last six games.
Intangible factor(s): This game marks the return of “Big Ben” Roethslisberger for the Steelers. Look for “Big Ben” to have a solid game and throw for a couple of TD’s against a weak Cleveland secondary. Both the starting QB and RB for the Browns are listed as doubtful and questionable, respectively, on the most recent injury report. In fact, the Browns are expected to start rookie QB (Colt McKoy) who will struggle against this top ranked defense.

4. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Minnesota is 5-0 vs. the spread the last 5 HOME games played against Dallas (including a 34-3 blowout victory in last year’s divisional playoff round).
Dallas is 3-9 vs. the spread the last 12 October road games.
Minnesota is 7-3-1, the past 11 home games, vs. the spread.
Noteworthy Trend(s): Minnesota is 7-0 as HOME FAVORITES of less than 4 points when playing an opponent with a less than .500 record. However, the Vikings are 1-9, vs. the spread, in games prior to playing the Packers (their next opponent after Dallas) when the Vikings are favored.
Intangible factor: Both teams have played below expectations this season (each are 1-3) and the loser of this game will most likely be out of the playoff race. Minnesota has the edge in that they are playing at home and the fact that nothing significant has changed since last year’s drubbing of the Cowboys. Brett Favre is taking heat for actions when he was a New York Jet and reportedly is listed as questionable, for the game, with tendinitis in his right elbow. Brett Favre’s a gamer and typically has great outings when the chips are down. Minnesota will lean on Adrian Peterson, get Randy Moss involved with some big plays and win by at least 7 points.

5. DENVER BRONCOS

N.Y. Jets are 1-10 both straight up and vs. the spread the past 11 October road games.
N.Y. Jets are 1-11 vs. the spread, in the month of October, coming off of back to back straight up / against the spread wins.
Denver is 8-2 the last ten games, vs. the spread, against the N.Y. Jets and is 5-1 vs. the spread, the last six HOME games, played against New York.
Intangible factor: The Jets started off this season by playing 3 games vs. 2009 playoff teams and three consecutive intra-division opponents. They are due for a letdown.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES / ATLANTA FALCONS - Over and Under TOTAL POINTS.

Philadelphia and Atlanta typically play games that finish with the UNDER play coming through when comparing the Over and Under total points scored. 6 out of the last 7 games have resulted in the UNDER play with the different game being an O/U tie.
None of the above mentioned games played totaled more than 41 points scored in any contest. The current Over / Under line is 42.5 points.

2. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indianapolis is 1-4 vs. the spread against the Washington Redskins and has not won in the capital in 43 years.
Indianapolis is 7-3 vs. the spread, as a road favorite, the last 10 away games.
Noteworthy trend: Indianapolis is 7-1 as a road favorite, in the month of October, when coming off of a straight up / double digit victory. The Colts won last week, beating the Kansas City Chiefs, by the score of 19-9. The Colts are favored by 3 points.
Intangible factor(s): The Colts have already lost two road games this season. Peyton Manning is competitive and does not like to lose. Additionally, the Colts are 7-1 vs. the spread as non conference favorites of less than 10 points.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: Kansas City Chiefs plus the points vs. the Houston Texans. See "Other plays deserving some consideration" section below for details. The Denver Broncos, also one of our top plays this week, qualifies for an "Upset Special" game.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

Seattle is 2-5 vs. the spread, the last seven games played against Chicago, and also 1-3 at Chicago. Seattle is a poor road team having gone 2-11 vs. the spread the last 13 away games (both wins were vs. the St. Louis Rams). Additionally, Seattle is a very poor road underdog. Seattle is 0-10 vs. the spread (and straight up) as a ROAD UNDERDOG the last 10 games played. The average margin of LOSS (AML) for Seattle, in these 10 games, is over 20 points per game. MJM’s going with trends…Chicago is our recommendation.

Kansas City, playing in Houston as a road underdog, has won two of the last three away games, against the Texans, by 28 points each. The road team, in this series, is 4-1 vs. the spread the last 5 games played. Go with the Kansas City Chiefs to at least cover the line.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play(s) of the week: Three of our selections can qualify for the Trend Buster play of the week. Look for the Baltimore Ravens, the Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants to win outright (and cover the spread in the case of the Colts and Giants).

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. New Orleans is 5-3 straight up and 6-2 vs. the spread, playing in Tampa, since realignment of divisions in 2002. Look for Drew Brees and the defending Super Bowl Champions to get on track with a win over Tampa Bay by at least a touchdown. The Saints are favored by 4 points. MJM is going with New Orleans.

Week 5 (10/10/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

BALTIMORE RAVENS (Giving the points); 7 point favorite at time of publication.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (Giving the points); 7.5 point favorite at time of publication.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Giving the points); 3 point favorite at time of publication.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Getting the points); 4.5 point underdog at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

GREEN BAY PACKERS (Giving the points); 2.5 point favorite at time of publication.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (Giving the points); 6.5 point favorite at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

1. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore is 5-2 straight up (6-1 vs. the spread) against Denver their last 7 games played.
Baltimore is 4-0 straight up and vs. the spread the past 4 home games vs. the Broncos (including a playoff victory in 2000).
Baltimore’s average margin of victory (AMV) is 18 points in the past 4 home victories against Denver. Overall, Baltimore’s AMV is over 15 points, per game, against Denver and the Ravens have never won by less than 7 points (the 7 point victory was in Denver).
Baltimore / Denver games have gone 1-6 ( UNDER the total points ) the last 7 games.
Noteworthy: Baltimore is 9-3 vs. the spread the last 12 games they have been favored by at least 7 points. Baltimore is also 11-1 straight up in the above mentioned games.
Intangible factor(s): Baltimore Raven QB (Joe Flacco) is 5-0 vs. the AFC WEST division.

2. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indianapolis is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 vs. the spread the last 6 games against Kansas City. Indianapolis is 2-0 and 1-1, straight up and respectively, vs. Kansas City the two home games. Both of these games went UNDER the total Over / Under total points.
Indianapolis is 14-1 straight up their last 15 home games. The only loss was to the New York Jets in 2009 when Indy pulled Peyton Manning early and the Jets needed a win to advance into the playoffs.
Noteworthy: Indianapolis is 1-7 as Home Favorites coming off of a straight up loss in the month of October.
Intangible factor: Peyton Manning does not like to lose. Indy is now 0-2 in the division and out of first place. Although some of Indy’s WR’s are banged up, Peyton should have access to plenty of options for Indy’s potent passing attack to be successful against an over achieving and over performing Kansas City pass defense.

3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

San Francisco is 6-3-2 as a Home favorite the last two seasons.
Games between the SF 49ers and Eagles have gone OVER the Over / Under total points in 5 of the last 6 games played between the two teams. The other game was an O/U tie.
Noteworthy trend(s): Philadelphia has dominated recent play vs. San Francisco. The Eagles are 5-1 both straight up and vs. the spread the last 6 games against the 49ers. Philadelphia’s average margin of victory has been 20 plus points in their five victories against San Francisco and not less than 14 points in any of these victories.
Intangible factor(s): We have mentioned the fact that San Francisco is not a winless team in previous MJM write-ups this season. Although San Francisco is 0-4 straight up, the 49ers are 2-2 vs. the spread with both of these covers against New Orleans and Atlanta (playoff caliber teams). Mike Singletary is a good coach and will find a way to motivate his team to not only play better but to win. The 49ers are favored by 3 points in this game. The Eagles are without their starting QB (Mike Vick) and their starting RB is hurting with a rib injury.

4. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Minnesota Vikings are 6-1-1 against the spread, the game following a bye week, the last eight seasons.
The New York Jets are 5-0 straight up vs. Minnesota the last 5 games played between the Vikings and Jets. This trend dates back to 1982. The teams have only played twice in the last 10 years. The Jets won both games but played against Minnesota teams that won only 6 games in each of these years. Minnesota has a potential Super Bowl team built to win this season.
Intangible factor(s): This match up will turn into a great Monday Night football game. Brett Favre has started off this season slowly and has received some untimely bad press this week. Brett turns 41 on 10/10/10 and will look to have a birthday present wrapped up with a win against the Jets. Favre usually lights it up on Monday Night games. Randy Moss typically has incredible games his first appearance in a new uniform (i.e. Rookie debut for the Vikings, Oakland Raiders debut and most recently for the New England Patriots). Randy Moss should prove to enable the Vikings offense to crank it up several notches, open up throwing lanes for Brett and have the Vikings resemble last season’s high powered scoring machine. Look for Favre, Moss and Adrian Peterson to have big games. VIKINGS are MJM’s UPSET SPECIAL of the week as well as a Top Ranked play.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Green Bay is 6-0 the last six games vs. Washington. The average margin of victory the last four games has been 18 plus points for the Packers.
Green Bay typically plays well as an away favorite. The Packers are 9-5 against the spread the last 14 road games (including 1-1 this season) in which they are favored.
3 out of the last 4 games between the Packers and Redskins have gone UNDER the Over and Under total points. Both of the Packers away games went UNDER this season.
Intangible factor: Green Bay should be able to move the ball and score against the Redskins defense. Washington is playing without their starting RB (Clinton Portis will be out 4 - 6 weeks) and may be flat after an emotional victory against the Eagles last week.

2. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

San Diego is 13-0 straight up and vs. 10-3 vs. the spread the past 13 games vs. Oakland.
San Diego is 7-1 straight up and vs. the spread in AWAY games vs. Oakland.
The average margin of victory for San Diego, in their past seven victories on the road against Oakland, is over 11 points.
6 out of the last 9 games played in Oakland, between the Chargers and the Raiders, have gone OVER the Over / Under total points.
Intangible factor(s): The Chargers are an explosive team that tends to play well against their AFC WEST opponents. The Chargers have gone 5-1 straight up, in intra division games, in each of the last four seasons. San Diego wins the games they need to win. Oakland will be hampered with the loss of their starting RB (Darren McFadden) due to an injured hamstring. Oakland’s QB (Bruce Gradkowski) will struggle against the San Diego Chargers aggressive defense.

MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: Tennessee Titans plus the points vs. the Dallas Cowboys.The Cowboys should win outright. Chris Johnson’s success will be a main factor in this game.

Other plays deserving some consideration include: HOUSTON, at 3-1 straight up this season, is off to a great start. The Texans get LB Brian Cushing back for this game against the New York Giants. The Texans should be able to run on the Giants and use the play action pass to set up several scores. Take the Texans.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: The Cincinnati Bengals are 1-3 vs. the spread the last four games against Tampa Bay.

Cincinnati giving the points is a recommended play as the Bengals should be able to find a good blend of run and pass on offense to beat the Bucs by a TD or more. The Detroit Lions, this week’s “Free Pick”, also qualifies as a “Trend Buster” play of the week.

The Detroit Lions are 0-4 straight up this season but 3-1 vs. the spread. Detroit easily could be 4-0 vs. the spread as they narrowly missed covering against Minnesota (Detroit had two red zone scoring opportunities late in the game but failed to convert on either). Detroit is 0-10 straight up & 2-7-1 vs. the spread the last 10 games played vs. NFC WEST opponents. Detroit is 1-3 both straight up and vs. the spread against St. Louis the last 4 games played (including a 17-10 loss last season against the Rams). However, this game is an opportunity for the Lions to finally put things together and get their first victory of the 2010 season. MJM is going with the Detroit Lions.

Week 4 (10/3/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

GREEN BAY PACKERS (Giving the points); 14.5 point favorite at time of publication.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (Getting the points); 3 point underdog at time of publication.
NEW YORK JETS (Giving the points); 5.5 point favorite at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

HOUSTON TEXANS (Giving the points); 3 point favorite at time of publication.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (Getting the points); 1 point underdog at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Green Bay is 17-3 straight up and 12-8 vs. the spread against Detroit their last 20 games.
Green Bay is 10-0 straight up (7-3 vs. the spread) the past 10 Home games vs. the Lions.
Green Bay’s average margin of victory is approximately 16 points per game in the past 10 home victories against Detroit. However, the average is closer to 19 points per game when removing two victories settled by a field goal each. Games are not typically close.
Green Bay is 10-4 vs. the spread, the last 14 games, against the NFC North division (including the loss to Chicago last week which was MJM’s Upset special of the week).
Noteworthy: All three Green Bay games have gone UNDER the total points this season while two out of three Detroit games have also gone UNDER the total points this season.
Intangible factor(s): The Detroit Lions are 0-3 straight up this season but 2-1 vs. the spread. Detroit easily could be 3-0 vs. the spread as they missed covering last week against the Vikings (Detroit had two redzone scoring opportunities late in the game but failed to convert on either). You need to pay attention to a team receiving close to or more than two touchdowns. However, Detroit is without their starting QB, their rookie, sensational RB is nursing a turf toe injury and is a game time decision and their starting premier WR is not playing well this season.

2. CLEVELAND BROWNS

Cleveland is 2-4 straight up, the last 6 games played against Cincinnati, but 4-2 vs. the spread. Browns have covered three out of the last four games against the Bengals.
Cleveland is 7-5-1, against the spread, as a home underdog the last three seasons.
Noteworthy trend(s): Cleveland was in a 2-19 straight up slump over a 21 consecutive game time period that covered part of the 2008 / 2009 NFL seasons. 7-13-1 vs. the spread over the same period. Cleveland is 7-3 vs. the spread the last 10 games (including the first three games of 2010) since the slump.
Cleveland has only started a season 0-4, straight up, once in the last 10 years.
Intangible factor: This game should be a closely played contest and should be settled in favor of the team that has better quality play from the QB position. Carson Palmer has been struggling as of late and the Browns get Jake Delhomme back as their starting QB. Peyton Hillis has been coming on strong as of late and provides the Browns with a key cog to a solid running game.

3. NEW YORK JETS

New York is 5-5 straight up and 6-4 vs. the spread the past 10 games played at Buffalo.
New York has covered three out of the last four games last 4 away games with Buffalo.
Buffalo is 1-5 vs. the spread as a home underdog since the 2009 season.
Buffalo is 8-2 against the spread the past 10 October home games.
The road team is 7-1 vs. the spread, in the New York / Buffalo series, the last 8 games.
Noteworthy trend(s): New York is 1-11, in the month of October, off of back to back, straight up and against the spread wins. Jets are 1-10 straight up and against the spread the past 11 October road games.
New York is 7-2 vs. the spread the last nine divisional road games (including last week’s victory against Miami).
Future Trend: The series has split the past seven years between New York and Buffalo.
Intangible factor: This appears to be a classic trap game for the Jets as they are playing Buffalo in between three tough games to start the season (Baltimore, NE and Miami) and prior to the matchup with former Jets QB (Brett Favre) and the Minnesota Vikings. The Jets should be beat up and looking forward to next week and their Monday Night game. However, the Jets are playing the 0-3 Bills and will lean heavily on their running back tandem of LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene to pummel the Bills and lighten the load of every Jet player. Look for a Jets victory by at least a touchdown.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

HOUSTON TEXANS

Houston is 4-1 straight up and vs. the spread against the Oakland Raiders.
The winner of the game in this series has also covered the spread (5-0).
Houston’s average margin of victory is 13 points in their four wins against Oakland.
Noteworthy trend: Houston is 1-6 against the spread the past 7 October road games.

2. MIAMI DOLPHINS

MJM’S UPSET SPECIAL of the week: Miami is 6-4 straight up and vs. the spread the past 10 games, at home, vs. New England.

Monday Night Football HOME underdogs are 2-1 and 3-0 straight up and vs. the spread, respectively, this season through the first 3 weeks.
Intangible factor: The Dolphins match up well against New England and can set the tempo for the pace of the game by clock management and running the football. We envision Miami mixing in several successful wildcat plays with good QB play to take advantage of the porous New England secondary and overall pass defense.

Another MJM UPSET SPECIAL of the week: CLEVELAND outright winner over Cincinnati.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina as a “Trend Buster play”. Carolina is 8-1 the last nine games vs. New Orleans, against the spread, for away games. Also, Carolina is 10-0, vs. the spread, as an underdog playing an opponent coming off of a straight up and against the spread loss (in October). However, we think that New Orleans has too much offense and fire power at their disposal to let Carolina even come close to thinking upset. Carolina is starting a rookie QB and the Saints are more than a little upset with their loss to Atlanta last week in OT. NEW ORLEANS to cover the near 2 touchdown spread!
Seattle is 10-0 straight up and 8-2 vs. the spread against St. Louis the last 10 games they have played against each other. SEATTLE giving 1 should be the play.
San Francisco has started a season 0-4 only once in the last 10 years (San Francisco went on to a 2-14 record in 2004). We don’t see the 49ers as a 2-14 team or even a poor team with that talent pool they have on both sides of the ball. However, a strong trend that goes against the 49ers is that they play poorly on the road in October. The S.F. 49ers are 0-12 straight up and 1-10-1 vs. the spread the past 12 October away games. Also, Matt Ryan has won his last 14 straight at home. We see this game as another “Trend Buster” play opportunity. Take SAN FRANCISCO and the points (+7) and take in a good game. Not like the thumping that San Francisco was handed by Atlanta last year (45-10). The 49ers won’t soon forget!

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: Three of our selections can qualify for the Trend Buster play(s) of the week and include: New Orleans, San Francisco and Philadelphia. The Eagles are 0-3 vs. the spread, at home, the last three games played against Washington.

NEW YORK GIANTS over the Chicago Bears. We liked the Bears as a week 2 “Trend Buster” play against Dallas and as our “Upset Special of the week” when they beat Green Bay last week. BOTH WINNERS! However, we are taking the New York Giants in this Sunday night match up to right their ship. The Giants are capable of running the ball on Chicago and have a good enough pass rush to rattle Jay Cutler. Also, the Chicago Bears are 1-7 away vs. non division opponents, off of a straight up loss, in October games. MJM is going with the New York Giants.

Week 3 ( 9/26/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Giving the points); 2.5 point favorite at time of publication.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Giving the points); 14 point favorite at time of publication.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (Giving the points); 10.5 point favorite at time of publication.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Giving the points); 2.5 point favorite at time of publication.
NEW YORK JETS (Getting the points); 2 point underdog at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

ATLANTA FALCONS (Getting the points); 4 point underdog at time of publication.
CHICAGO BEARS (Getting the points); 3 point underdog at time of publication.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

2. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

New England is 18-2 straight up and 14-6 vs. the spread against Buffalo since 2000.
New England has won 13 games in a row against Buffalo and is 10-3 vs. the spread over the same games. (New England played at HOME in all three against the spread losses).
9 out of the last 13 games, won by New England, have been decided by a double digit margin of victory.
8 out of the last 10 games, in New England, have gone UNDER the total Over & Under.
Noteworthy trend: Tom Brady led Patriot teams have won 19 consecutive Home games.

3. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore is 7-0 straight up & 5-2 vs. the spread the past seven September home games.
Baltimore and Cleveland games have gone OVER the total Over and Under points 7 out of the last 10 games in Baltimore. 10-9-1 for the OVER the last 10 years in this series.
Baltimore is 10-2 as a double digit Home Favorite vs. opponent off a straight up loss.
Noteworthy trend: Baltimore is 7-3 and 6-4, straight up and vs. the spread, the last 10 Home games against Cleveland. Margin of victory was, on average, 20 points per game and AT LEAST 10 points per victory. If Baltimore wins, and that’s how we see it, then this contest should be a blowout!
Intangible factor: Both the starting QB and RB for the Browns are listed as doubtful and questionable, respectively, on the most recent injury report.

4. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

MJM TREND BUSTER play of the week: The home team in this series has won 7 straight and is also 6-1 vs. the spread.

Kansas City is 7-11 as a Home Underdog the last three seasons (including their victory as a Home dog against San Diego in week 1 of this season).
Games involving Kansas City, regarding the Over and Under total points, are 16-8-1 the last three seasons (favoring the OVER plays).
Intangible factor: Kansas City has started 3-0 only once (2003) over the last ten years.

5. NEW YORK JETS

N.Y. Jets are 4-3 straight up vs. Miami the last seven games played at Miami. However, the Jets are 6-1 vs. the spread against Miami in these games and won six in row prior to Miami’s straight up and vs. the spread 2009 victory.
N.Y. Jets are 6-2 vs. the spread the last 8 divisional road games.
The N.Y. Jets are 16-10, vs. the spread, as road underdogs the last four seasons.
Miami is 3-0, straight up, the last three games vs. the N.Y. Jets.
Noteworthy Trend: Over and Under the total points plays have alternated the last 8 games, played by the NYJ / Miami, in Miami. Therefore, the UNDER play should come through if this trend continues.

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

ATLANTA FALCONS

2. CHICAGO BEARS

MJM’S UPSET SPECIAL of the week: Chicago is 3-7 straight up and 2-8 vs. the spread against GB the last 10 games played in Chicago.

Noteworthy trend: The outright winner of the game between the Bears and Packers has covered the spread 18 out of the last 20 games played.
Intangible factor: The Packers have a banged up offensive line and are playing without their starting RB (Ryan Grant) who is out on Injured Reserve. Look for the Chicago Bears to be motivated and play at a high level, at home, before a national TV audience on Monday Night Football. Jay Cutler and the Bears look to pull off an upset and go to 3-0 on the season!

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

Seattle is 5-1 straight up (4-1-1 vs. the spread) the last 6 games vs. San Diego.
Seattle is 5-1 vs. the spread the last 6 games vs. AFC West teams.
The last 5 games played between Seattle and San Diego have been settled by a field goal or less (four games by 3 points and one game by 2 points).
MJM’s going with the trends…Seattle is our recommendation.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: Three of our selections can qualify for the Trend Buster play of the week. Look for the San Francisco 49ers, the Atlanta Falcons and the Chicago Bears to win outright.

MJM’s Parlay play of the week: We see a high scoring event between the Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys this week. A real Texas shoot ‘em up game with the final score being in the range of 30-20 (incidentally the Over and Under total is currently 47 points and we like the OVER. The other part of the parlay would be the Minnesota Vikings giving the points (11.5 points at time of publication) to the Detroit Lions.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS over the Denver Broncos. Indianapolis is 7-2 vs. Denver both straight up and vs. the spread the last nine games. Also, the last six games have gone OVER the total Over and Under points in this series. MJM is going with INDY.

Week 2 ( 9/19/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Giving the points); 6 point favorite at time of publication.
DENVER BRONCOS (Giving the points); 3 point favorite at time of publication.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (Getting points); 7 point underdog at time of publication.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

GREEN BAY PACKERS (Giving the points); 13 point favorite at time of publication.
OVER the total points in the CLEVELAND / KANSAS CITY game; 38.5 points at time of publication.

The MJM Sportsline's Top and Preferred plays represent our most confident picks for a particular week. MJM submits both the top and preferred picks to an independent monitoring service (The Sports Monitor of Oklahoma) for documentation and validation purposes. However, ONLY the top rated plays are utilized to calculate MJM Sportsline’s overall ranking versus other sports prognosticating services.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
DENVER BRONCOS
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

GREEN BAY PACKERS
CLEVELAND BROWNS / KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – Over / Under total.

Other plays deserving some consideration include:

MJM's "Tough to call" play of the week:

Cincinnati is 8-3 straight up and vs. the spread the last 11 games vs. Baltimore.
Baltimore is 1-4 straight up and vs. the spread the last five games in Cincinnati.
Noteworthy (FUTURE) trend involving the Cincinnati / Baltimore matchup is that every outright winner has covered the spread in the past 20 total games! That’s a perfect 20-0 vs. the spread in favor of the outright winner between these two AFC North rivals!
MJM’s going with the trends…Cincinnati is our recommendation.

MJM’s TREND BUSTER play of the week: Dallas is 8-3 straight up vs. the NFC North the past 11 games. Also, Chicago is 1-3 the last 4 games vs. Dallas. MJM is predicting a closer score than most. Take Chicago plus the points as a road underdog.

MJM’s “Free Pick” of the week: This pick is typically reserved for those individuals who are somewhat new to the MJM Sportsline website and seek to obtain a complimentary selection. This week’s “Free Pick” is:

CAROLINA PANTHERS over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carolina has a favorable trend when playing at home vs. Tampa Bay and is 6-2 vs. the spread since the NFC South was formed in 2002. Carolina is also 11-5 straight up and vs. the spread against Tampa Bay over the same period. MJM is going with Carolina.

The following predictions represent MJM Sportsline's Week 1 analysis provided to our clients and include:

Week 1 ( 9/12/10 )- MJM’s Top and Preferred plays:

Top Plays of the Week:

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Plus the points); 5.5 points as documented by The Sports Monitor.
HOUSTON TEXANS (Plus the points); 1 point on game day.
ATLANTA FALCONS (Give the points); 1 point on game day.

Preferred Plays of the Week:

N.Y. GIANTS (Give the points); 6 points on game day.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (Give the points); 3 points on game day.
N.Y. JETS (Give the points); 1 point on game day.

MJM’s additional “Free Pick” of the week was: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+4) points versus the San Diego Chargers on Monday Night Football. KC, a home underdog, won the game outright against one of their tougher AFC West division rival.

The “free pick” win helped propel MJM to an overall 5-2 winning record versus the spread for week 1 NFL action. To summarize MJM Sportsline’s week 1 predictions:

Top Plays were 2-1 vs. the spread (These plays are used for ranking purposes)
Preferred Plays were 2-1 outright and vs. the spread
“Free Pick” was 1-0 outright and vs. the spread as an underdog play

MJM strives to be “The professional’s professional” and looks to offer both quality picks that may be purchased as part of a package and complimentary “Free Picks” to assist those individuals who are striving to be associated with an overall winning and professional NFL football prediction service.

Please visit us at www.mjmsportsline.com to join the elite ranks of other winning, NFL sports minded fans who have decided to “Parlay our Passion into their Success”.

ANALYSIS (Top Plays):

MINNESOTA – Please reference the "Bonus Pick" section, listed below, on the Prediction page for extensive analysis on this game.
HOUSTON TEXANS
ATLANTA FALCONS

ANALYSIS (Preferred Plays):

N. Y. GIANTS
ARIZONA CARDINALS
NEW YORK JETS

Bonus Pick: MJM Sportsline is excited to "officially" launch our website service as a premier provider of NFL winning picks. We are providing an additional "Free Pick" for Week 1 action of the 2010 season. Don't forget to sign up for other free picks on our Home page or Contact Us page. Good luck to all of our clients and to those interested in using our service in the future.

Our bonus "free pick" is:

Take the MINNESOTA VIKINGS plus the points in the season opener vs. the New Orleans Saints. Vegas odds have the game fluctuating between 4 1/2 and 5 points with the Saints being the favorites. The Over and Under total opened at 48 1/2 points and hasn't moved much all week.

Here are some trends that support our recommendation:

Minnesota is 5-2 straight up and 6-1 vs. the spread against New Orleans over the last 10 years.
The games have gone 5-1-1 for the OVER the last 7 match ups.
New Orleans games have gone OVER the total points (20-13-1) at HOME since Sean Payton was hired as head coach four years ago.
Intangibles: Minnesota has revenge on its mind. Minnesota completely outplayed New Orleans in last year's Championship game and nearly outgained New Orleans by a two to one margin. Regardless of what's been said by both teams, Brett Favre was on the receiving end of cheap shots. Minnesota will remember this and send a few "remember me" hits towards New Orleans in honor of Gregg Williams and his cheap shot philosophy.

MJM typically offers 5 preferred or top plays on a weekly basis for purchasers of our packages. Keep in mind that this should be considered a good average with some weeks having more or less picks for a particular week. Top plays may also involve Over and Under selections.

The Minnesota bonus pick is being selected as one of our preferred plays for week 1. Please register for your additional "free pick" NOW!!

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