Archives: Predictions

Predictions for SUPER BOWL XLIV to be held on Sunday, February 7th

New Orleans Saints at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS.

Surprisingly, the Colts actually score more points when playing on the road than at home. Well, MJM Sportsline looks for that trend to continue in the Super Bowl game against the New Orleans Saints (even though this is considered a HOME game for the AFC). We envision an exciting game full of big plays and also near misses regarding scoring opportunities.

New Orleans a team of destiny? Not really, although some will try to talk up the Katrina factor as being inspirational and something that might propel the Saints to an UPSET victory. Why can't these people just let it go and move on with their lives? Natural disasters happen and it was a terrible event when the hurricane hit New Orleans. However, the people of New Orleans demonstrated their resilience and began the healing and recovery process soon after Hurricane Katrina hit the city in 2005.

Also, don't you think that the Saints were very, very fortunate with the Minnesota Vikings turning the ball over more often than a certain golfer recently changed the many girlfriends he entertained? Come on, if the game is played in the confines of the Metrodome, we all could have laughed at the silly renditions, sung by the Viking players to the tune, of "pants on the ground" and watched "Fabulous Favre" take his game to the big show in Miami. Too bad that the Vikings mascot has to shelve the victory horn until next season. For all you football fans, wait until the Vikings "BLOW" through their schedule with a vengeance and make up for this year's collapse in the NFC Championship game (that is, if Brett comes back and AP decides that being the best runner in the game comes with not fumbling).

Another factor to consider that might have a SLIGHT bearing on the outcome of the game is known as the "Perfect Peyton" factor. Rumors of Peyton laying down and dropping the game on purpose (because of daddy being Mr. Saint when he QB'ed the team?) have got us rolling off of our chairs.

MJM Sportsline likes the COLTS in this matchup as they have prior Super Bowl experience and seem to be approaching the game with a more matter of fact view and focus. We like the humorous gesture of Sean "Payton" as demonstrated by the head coach sending a jar of Peanut Butter, crackers and sand to Gregg Williams to keep him quiet during Super Bowl week. However, we also think that "Peyton" will send some "remember me" hits for Williams (the Saints defensive coordinator) and rest of the team to chew on. These "remember me" hits are called "Touchdown Strikes" and will be seen from several combinations such as Manning to Wayne, Manning to Garcon and Manning to Clark, etc.

STRONG TREND(S):

I.	INDIANAPOLIS is 9 - 8 in playoff games the last 10 years (including the victory against the N.Y. Jets in the AFC Championship game this season) outright. HOWEVER, the COLTS are 9 - 0 VS. THE SPREAD in ALL PLAYOFF VICTORIES. Indy games came in at only 5 - 4 regarding the OVER / UNDER total points in the nine playoff victories.
II.	Playoff games involving INDIANAPOLIS have gone UNDER the TOTAL OVER / UNDER POINTS 10 out of 17 times. The UNDER came in 6 - 10 -1 (with the tie being the game played against, ironically, the NY Jets in the 2002 season playoffs).
III.	NEW ORLEANS games have gone OVER the total points (20 - 13 - 1) regarding HOME games played the last four years. This stat includes the Championship game against the Vikings that went OVER the total. We guess that some are reaching with the statement that Super Bowl XLIV is a home game (geographical proximity) for New Orleans and will include this stat as food for thought ONLY for New Orleans fans. However, Sean Payton's offense is definitely special. In fact, ALL of the Saints playoff games have gone OVER the total points (4 - 0) since Payton became head coach (with each game's total points being at least 51 points)
IV.	New Orleans is 5 -1 straight up and 4 - 2 vs. the spread against other 2009 playoff teams (including their NFC Championship playoff victory against the Minnesota Vikings) this season.

MJM Sportsline successfully predicted the OVER in the NFC Championship game but sees the above trend, supporting New Orleans, coming to a halt in Miami. We feel that the Indy defense will rise to the occasion and slow down the New Orleans passing game. "Peyton" will manage a good game and turn Indy's "non existent" running game into a valuable asset for this game and use his short passing attack to manage the game clock as if the pass completions were 3, 4 and 5 yard runs.

MJM Sportsline thinks that Indy takes a second Super Bowl trophy to display at Lucas Field.

Prediction below is based upon a Las Vegas line of Indianapolis being favored by 5 points, against New Orleans, with the Over / Under line at 56 1/2 points. (The opening line was at 4 points and 56). We don't envision a drastic change in either the spread or the Over / Under total.

PREDICTION: INDIANAPOLIS 31 New Orleans 24

MJM SPORTSLINE hopes that we have been of some assistance to you. Let us know how we can improve our product!

Thanks for your support and GOOD LUCK!!!!!

 

Predictions for the AFC / NFC Championship games on Sunday, January 24th

1) New York Jets at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS.

Surprisingly, the Colts actually score more points when playing on the road than at home. This was evident as the Colts only posted 20 points against Baltimore in last week's Divisional win, which is six points below their season average, and even with all of the advantages that a home playoff game has to offer. Well, MJM Sportsline looks for that trend to continue for the AFC Championship game against the NY Jets. We envision a tough, old style game full of solid play on both sides of the ball for both teams.

NYJ's a Cinderella story?? Nah, they play the game the way it should be played...solid, stout defense with a top rated ground game on offense. However, MJM sees this philosophy as a drawback in today's matchup against "Perfect Peyton" (probably would have been if the Colts played all out in Week 16) as we see Indy striking early in the game and taking the NYJ's away from their gameplan. Indy's halftime lead of 13 - 3 seems to be a good possibilty.

Scoring points should be a challenge for both teams. We like the Colts in this matchup as they have a variety of ways to beat a decent team and can make the Jets one dimensional if they build a decent lead. This would not bode well for a rookie QB (Sanchez) even though he has guided the Jets to two playoff victories already and could set a league record with a third consecutive win. REMEMBER: No rookie QB has EVER won a Super Bowl...MJM Sportsline doesn't see this fact changing this season.

STRONG TREND(S):

I.	INDIANAPOLIS is 8 - 8 in playoff games the last 10 years (including the victory against Baltimore in the divisional game this season) outright. HOWEVER, the COLTS are 8 - 0 VS. THE SPREAD in ALL PLAYOFF VICTORIES. Indy games came in at only 4 - 4 regarding the OVER / UNDER total points in the eight playoff victories.
II.	Playoff games involving INDIANAPOLIS have gone UNDER the TOTAL OVER / UNDER POINTS 10 out of 16 times. The UNDER came in 5 - 10 -1 (with the tie being the game played against, ironically, the NY Jets in the 2002 season playoffs. Do you think INDY remembes the 41 - 0 drubbing at the hands of the NYJ's?

One more item to consider (for those of you looking for stats to support either side of the coin): Games played between Indianapolis / N. Y. Jets have gone OVER the total Over / Under points 5 out of the last 6 times they have faced each other. Just a little FYI fact.

MJM Sportsline thinks that Indy makes a second Super Bowl appearance in the last four years.

Prediction below is based upon a Las Vegas line of Indianapolis being favored by 8 points with the Over / Under line coming in at 40 points.

PREDICTION: INDIANAPOLIS 24 New York Jets 13

 

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

WOW. This game should be one considered as an all time great Championship game (if everything goes as anticipated). We have the "Favre Factor" and the city of New Orleans and recovery from Katrina set to be on center stage.

Again, MJM Sportsline is facing a challenge as to who gets our vote of confidence to take the game as we had been divided when the N. Y. Jets beat the San Diego Chargers in the AFC Divisional game. ( MJM successfully predicted the NYJ's OUTRIGHT UPSET VICTORY ). BJ took the Chargers and is scratching his head and wondering how San Diego couldn't put up more than 14 points against the Jets.

Incidentally, BJ likes the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS to be victorious against the Minnesota Vikings in a HIGH SCORING contest. MJM sees the overall outcome very diffently regarding the winner, but concurs with the idea that the game should be enjoyable and high scoring.

So, let's get to the trends and then wait for the final outcome:

STRONG TREND(S):

I.	MINNESOTA is 5 - 1 straight up and vs. the spread against New Orleans (over the last 10 years). The games have gone 4 - 1 - 1 (OVER) regarding the total points. MJM Sportsline sees the trend continuing for the Over / Under total.
II.	NEW ORLEANS games have gone OVER the total points (19 - 13 - 1) regarding HOME games played the last four years. Sean Payton's offense is something special. In fact, ALL of the Saints playoff games, since he became head coach, have gone OVER the total points (3 - 0) with each game's total points being at least 51 points. MJM Sportsline sees this trend continuing and going to 4 - 0.
III.	Minnesota is 1 - 3 straight up and vs. the spread (as away underdogs) over the last 10 years in the playoffs.
IV.	8 out of the last 11 games that Minnesota has played this season, including the playoff victory against Dallas, have gone UNDER the total O/U points.
V.	New Orleans is 4 -1 straight up and vs. the spread against other 2009 playoff teams (including their Divisional playoff victory against Arizona Cardinals)this season.

Again, trends are there to support our picks and not to appear to play both sides of the coin. BJ likes the game to be won by New Orleans, 34 -24, while MJM sees the Vikings posting a 31 - 27 win!!!!

Therefore, MJM Sportsline will post the total O/U on our site as BJ sees it (basically we see about 58 total points being scored in the Vikings / Saints game) and MJM's VIKINGS prediction to win since MJM called the last split decision WIN correctly.

We both like the Over / Under number to come in at OVER the Vegas total O/U line of 53 points for the game. Vegas line has New Orleans favored by 3 1/2 points. Again, MJM sees Brett Favre workng his magic in New Orleans and making the trip to Miami to face the Colts and another great MVP QB in the upcoming Super Bowl.

PREDICTION: Minnesota 34 NEW ORLEANS 24

 

Saturday, January 16th Divisional games:

Arizona Cardinals at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS.

High scoring affair in store for us fans? NO! Don't get sucked into the hype about the Cardinals and Saints lighting up the scoreboard..won't happen like last week's shootout in the desert. MJM Sportsline predicts a lower scoring game and closer than most people would think. We like the Cardinals plus the points (seven at current writing) and the UNDER for the O/U total points (57 at the time of writing).

PREDICTION: NEW ORLEANS 30 Arizona 24

Don't be surprised if a mild upset occurs and Arizona wins a close game with a final of 28 - 27.

STRONG TREND(S):

I.	11 of the 16 regular season games involving Arizona went UNDER the total O/U. Again, MJM Sportsline took this into consideration last week but provided you with the winning OVER prediction in the AZ / GB game. Also, New Orleans was involved in only 6 of 16 games that went OVER this season.
II.	Arizona went 6 - 1 straight up and vs. the spread as an UNDERDOG this season.

Baltimore Ravens at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS.

The mighty undefeated (WHOOPS) Colts take on the Ravens fresh off their stunning and shocking upset of the New England Patriots (NOT according to MJM - see Archives section). Doesn't Indy and Baltimore seem to end up playing low scoring games? YES! 6 out of the last 7 games played between Indy / Balt. ended up going UNDER the total O/U points. (Won't happen on Saturday night). Also, shouldn't Indy play a close game against the Ravens since Indianapolis won 7 games by a margin of 4 or less points this season (4 games at HOME)? NO - See strong trend.

Lay the 6 1/2 points (or even 7 if the spread gets there) and watch the game go OVER 44 1/2 points.

PREDICTION: INDIANAPOLIS 31 Baltimore 20

STRONG TREND(S):

I.	Indy is 5-1-1 vs. the spread against Baltimore and MJM likes the Colts to make it 6-1-1 after Saturday night's game is OVER.
II.	Baltimore was ( 1 - 6 ) straight up and versus the spread against other 2009 playoff teams this season prior to beating New England last week.

 

Predictions for the Sunday, January 17th Divisional games

Dallas Cowboys at MINNESOTA VIKINGS.

Minnesota was 8 - 0 at home this season and 5 - 2 -1 versus the spread. The Vikings also won ALL three games played at the Metrodome against other 2009 playoff teams - covering 2 out of the 3. MINNESOTA also scored AT LEAST 27 points each game at HOME. This adds up to a win over America's team as we see the game playing out....Too much FAVRE and AP ALL DAY long!!

STRONG TREND(S):

I.

Minnesota games were 8 - 8 and 4 - 4 regarding the OVER / UNDER total, during the regular season and at HOME, respectively. HOWEVER, 7 out of the last 10 regular season games went ( UNDER ) the total O/U. Also, Dallas games went UNDER 10 out of 16 games. Not to worry or to be confused...Vikings to score plenty against the much vaunted Dallas defense as Brett shows what it means to be a "Money Player". MJM likes the OVER in this matchup.

II.

Minnesota is 4 - 1 straight up and vs. the spread against the Cowboys over the last 10 years. These games went UNDER the O/U total 4 of 5 times.

PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 34 Dallas 17

Lay the 3 points and watch the game go OVER 46.

New York Jets at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Tough game to call for MJM Sportsline as we are split over the outcome. MJM likes the Jets and UNDER. BJ sees the Chargers putting up alot of points and taking the game outright and covering the line (Opened at 8 1/2 and down to 6 1/2 at time of writing). BJ has stats to back up his prediction.

STRONG TREND(S):

I.	San Diego games went ( OVER ) 11 out of 16 times this season. HOME games went ( OVER ) 6 out of 8 times. However, SD was only 3 - 5 vs. the spread at HOME this season and only 8 - 8 for the season while posting a 13 -3 regular season record.
II.	San Diego has scored AT LEAST 20 points for 22 consecutive games (MJM sees that streak coming to an end) dating back to the 2008 season.
III.	San Diego is 1 - 4 vs. the spread (2 - 3 straight up) vs. the NYJ's over the last 10 years. Statistic includes a playoff loss for SD in 2005 ( 20 - 17). MJM sees a similar outcome for this Sunday's matchup.<br />

 

PREDICTION: New York Jets 23 SAN DIEGO 17

Again, tough game to call. If San Diego takes the game, the over should come in. MJM buys into the old cliche' this week...Defense wins championships and offense fills the stadiums.

 

1/09/10 Wildcard Playoff predictions

1. N.Y. Jets plus the points and OVER the total points. MJM sees a 20 - 17 score coming in to propel the NYJ's to the divisional playoff round.
2. Philadelphia plus the points and UNDER the total points. Eagles upset the Cowboys 24 - 20. If the Cowboys end up taking the game outright, look for it to be settled by a field goal.
   
   

STRONG TREND(S):

I.	All five games involving the Cowboys and the five other playoff team / games went UNDER the total this season. Philadelphia playoff games have gone UNDER the total the last 11 of 17 games (including 6 of the last 7 wildcard opening playoff games).

 

Predictions for Wildcard weekend (Sunday - 1/10/10) games

STRONG TREND(S):

I.	Baltimore plus the points and UNDER the total points. Game could end up being somewhat close with Baltimore winning by a field goal or less than a TD. New England was 8 - 0 at home this season, Brady has never lost a home playoff game and NE has not lost a home playoff game since 1978.....that is, we predict, until later today.
II.	Look for the Cardinals to fly high after upsetting the Packers. Everyone in town, Vegas and elsewhere appear to be all OVER the Packers. I see another underdog victory (would make 3 out of 4 this weekend if Baltimore comes through as expected) with the game going OVER the total points and both teams combining for more than 49 points.

Prediction: CARDINALS 28 Packers 24